The Stimulus Is A Failure

[Hauldren Collider]

I can't believe gribby is still trying to defend this. I think sometime after the midterms his brain just overloaded.

[DaShi]

And yet you eat up National Review articles.

[Tupac Shakur]

I can't believe gribby is still trying to defend this.

I can't believe you think the summary he posted makes the stimulus looks good. I also can't believe you would condemn someone for citing a NBER report.

[KrazyHorse]

Did the Stimulus Stimulate? Real Time Estimates of the Effects of the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act

Abstract:

Errrr....blatant fallacy of composition

[giblets]

I know the people at the NBER aren't as smart as Krazyhorse thinks he is.

[DinoDoc]

Appeal to Authority.

[DaShi]

@DD

[KrazyHorse]

I know the people at the NBER aren't as smart as Krazyhorse thinks he is.

You're an idiot.

[KrazyHorse]

What happens if you double the nominal income of everybody in your family? What happens if you double the nominal income of everybody in the world?

That is the fallacy of composition, and is exactly what the authors of that paper have engaged in.

[KrazyHorse]

Thought experiment: take half of the income of people in the North and give it straight to people in the South. Whose economy will show more growth? Does this mean that If the experiment was doubled (say by doing the same thing in the opposite direction) that the economy as a whole will increase due to this "stimulus"?

Good God, anybody who can think understands this. And no, I don't include Krugman in that group.

[DaShi]

What if I take half the money from the North and invest it in the South, then I give the returns of that investment back to the North?

[giblets]

It's possible that spending money in a given state could also stimulate the economy of a neighboring state to a lesser extent, so they could have underestimated the multiplier thanks to the composition fallacy.

[KrazyHorse]

What does that have to do with the analysis here? The ENTIRE POINT of that article to compare inter-regional variation in stimulus spending to inter-regional variation in economic growth. By definition it is impossible to use this analysis to prove ANYTHING about the net effect of stimulus spending.

[KrazyHorse]

It's possible that spending money in a given state could also stimulate the economy of a neighboring state to a lesser extent, so they could have underestimated the multiplier thanks to the composition fallacy.

You are a ****ing idiot. I'm not even kidding.

[DaShi]

I don't know, I didn't read it.