The Stimulus Is A Failure

[KrazyHorse]

I love the juxtaposition of "You're a ****ing idiot" with "THERE'S NO REASONABLE ESTIMATE OF THE COUNTERFACTUAL."

I like to lead with strength and finish with intelligence

[KrazyHorse]

Actually the counterfactual approximates reality considering the level of payout.

You can't actually claim that, since it's unknown if a large amount of private spending anticipates the stimulus.

[KrazyHorse]

I'm skeptical of that, but it's not something I can claim exact empirical knowledge of.

[Ogie Oglethorpe]

True dat, but theres proabably an equal amount of private spending held in reserve knowing the anti-private sector pablum Obama's been spouting as long as we're going with gut feels.

[Lorizael]

I like to lead with strength and finish with intelligence

**** = strength? It's Friday. Take it easy.

Edit: I've DanSed you, Ogie.

[Ogie Oglethorpe]

On this board its the pinnacle of intelligence.

[KrazyHorse]

**** = intelligence? It's Friday. Take it easy.

Wrap around my ass, Lori.

[Zkribbler]

As evidenced by the May unemployment numbers...

You do know that unemployment numbers are a trailing indicator, right?

[Seeker]

What private spending would have been in the absence of any govern'mt stimulus is impossible to estimate except by very musty and old historical precedents.

But I don't think the power of bargain-hunters and the 'creative' side of creative-destruction should be dismissed so easily. Firms would go out of business, unemployment rises...but the firms assets pass to different individuals unburdened with debt, eventually bringing back jobs.

I wish I had more knowledge so that we could compare cases like recovery with public stimuli of various levels vs laissez-faire.

[Zkribbler]

Except NONE OF THE MONEY HAS BEEN SPENT YET and that hasn't happened.

Just a tad from Recovery.gov:

Wednesday, June 10, 2009
U.S. Department of Labor releases more than $450 million in additional funds for Trade Adjustment Assistance

Wednesday, June 10, 2009
More Than $1 Billion in Recovery Funds Now Available for Ohio to Save Teaching Jobs and Drive Education Reform

Friday, June 5, 2009
U.S. Labor Department announces release of $220.3 million in unemployment insurance modernization incentive funds to Georgia

Friday, June 5, 2009
Secretary Sebelius Makes Recovery Act Funding Available to Bolster Health Care in Needy Communities, Relieve Providers' Student Debt

Wednesday, June 3, 2009
U.S. Department of Labor announces more than $100 million in Recovery Act funds to help Ohio's unemployed workers

Tuesday, June 2, 2009
U.S. Labor Department announces release of $88.2 million in unemployment insurance modernization incentive funds to Ohio

[Kuciwalker]

Just a tad from Recovery.gov:

Funny, weren't you claiming the same thing I just said IN THE THREAD JUST A FEW DAYS AGO.

[KrazyHorse]

Did he just list ~1.5 billion dollars of spending and claim that it has some distinguishable effect on the US economy as a whole?

[KrazyHorse]

Without that 1.5 bill we'd be at 25-30% unemployment (I love the fact that he estimates a RANGE so as to imply that this is the level of confidence he has).



You ****ing tool.

[Dinner]

Did he just list ~1.5 billion dollars of spending and claim that it has some distinguishable effect on the US economy as a whole?

To be fair he did say it was only a "tad" of what was listed on the site.

[KrazyHorse]

Look, there is NO WAY that any reasonable person can claim that even a few tens of billions of dollars in spending leads to a reduction in counterfactual unemployment of 15-20%

That's simply stupid.

US GDP is ~14 TRILLION DOLLARS.