north korea successful nuclear test!

[Dr Strangelove]

China fears that if North Korea falls its unemployed soldiers will pour across the border and take up (armed) banditry to support themseves.

[Theben]

Kim is the "LOOK AT ME!!" poseur of the international community.

[Kitschum]

I vote that if something is to be done, the US take full responsibility and pick up the entire tab including the karmic hit.

[Q Classic]

I vote that if something is to be done, the US take full responsibility and pick up the entire tab including the karmic hit.

What, for the NK? If you want to place blame, you can give it to Japan for annexing it, the US for not raising a fuss in 1905; or to Russia and the Soviet Union for occupying the northern half; or to China for invading at the Yalu.

This cluster**** isn't just the US's fault.

[Q Classic]

Time for military action is close at hand.

I say that sincerely.

No.

No it's not. Because even if we won, it'd be a Pyrrhic victory.

Oh, wait, I forget, you ****ers don't really have any connections with that place in the world except, "Isn't that where my electronics come from?"

[KrazyHorse]

LG

[BeBMan]

Electronics from the orient

[BeBMan]

Kim is the "LOOK AT ME!!" poseur of the international community.

Maybe he should perform a Dale and put up his own (intl) community where he's the boss.

[Kuciwalker]

No.

No it's not. Because even if we won, it'd be a Pyrrhic victory.

Dude, NK has nuclear weapons and throws around ballistic missiles around whenever someone says something mean about it. It also has no compunction about exporting the missiles or the nukes to places like Iran. The status quo is unsustainable. If the worst that comes out of this is South Korea has to deal with a bunch of impoverished immigrants, we got a good deal.

[Q Classic]

Dude, NK has nuclear weapons and throws around ballistic missiles around whenever someone says something mean about it. It also has no compunction about exporting the missiles or the nukes to places like Iran. The status quo is unsustainable. If the worst that comes out of this is South Korea has to deal with a bunch of impoverished immigrants, we got a good deal.

I agree it's unsustainable.

But "a bunch of impoverished immigrants" is a huge understatement, seeing as the bunch is about 50% of SKorea's population and the level of impoverishment leaves NKorea's per capita income an order of magnitude smaller than SKorea's. Then there's the simple cultural shock that has to be dealt with--defectors and refugees who make it to the South from the North end up having to be educated on simply how to live in modern Korean society: how to use an ATM, how to find work, how to play StarCraft.

And that's the best case scenario, not the worst, with a peaceful reunification.

Add in a war--I'm sorry, a "military solution"--and it quickly becomes a much bigger problem than just growing the country's population by half overnight.

[Arrian]

Dude, NK has nuclear weapons and throws around ballistic missiles around whenever someone says something mean about it. It also has no compunction about exporting the missiles or the nukes to places like Iran. The status quo is unsustainable. If the worst that comes out of this is South Korea has to deal with a bunch of impoverished immigrants, we got a good deal.

You seem to find them scarier than I do. I agree the situation is unsustainable, but the way I see it, that's NK's problem.

As for selling nuke tech, that is a concern (though a nuclear Iran doesn't bother me - at least not any more than a nuclear [insert state here that isn't BFF w/us]), and it's something to worry about, but I don't see how "military action" against NK and the resulting cluster**** is somehow better than worrying about them selling nukes to [insert scary man here].

-Arrian

[Kuciwalker]

I agree it's unsustainable.

But "a bunch of impoverished immigrants" is a huge understatement, seeing as the bunch is about 50% of SKorea's population and the level of impoverishment leaves NKorea's per capita income an order of magnitude smaller than SKorea's. Then there's the simple cultural shock that has to be dealt with--defectors and refugees who make it to the South from the North end up having to be educated on simply how to live in modern Korean society: how to use an ATM, how to find work, how to play StarCraft.

And that's the best case scenario, not the worst, with a peaceful reunification.

Given:

1) That's the best possible reunification.
2) North Korea won't survive forever, so EVENTUALLY you will have to reunify.
3) While we sit around waiting for it to happen, North Korea is developing the ability to nuke targets anywhere in the region.
4) A North Korean regime that's about to fall will have nothing to lose.

What do you see as a likely outcome here?

[Arrian]

So, China's just gonna sit back and allow this military action?

-Arrian

[Whoha]

North Korea ends Armistice.

May 27 (Bloomberg) -- North Korea threatened a military response to South Korean participation in a U.S.-led program to seize weapons of mass destruction, and said it will no longer abide by the 1953 armistice that ended the Korean War.

“The Korean People’s Army will not be bound to the Armistice Agreement any longer,” the official Korean Central News Agency said in a statement today. Any attempt to inspect North Korean vessels will be countered with “prompt and strong military strikes.” South Korea’s military said it will “deal sternly with any provocation” from the North.

South Korean President Lee Myung Bak ordered his government to take “calm” measures on the threats, his office said in a statement today. Japan’s Chief Cabinet Secretary, Takeo Kawamura, echoed those remarks and called on North Korea to “refrain from taking actions that would elevate tensions in Asia.”

The threats are the strongest since North Korea tested a nuclear weapon on May 25, drawing international condemnation and the prospect of increased sanctions against the communist nation. South Korea dispatched a warship to its maritime border and is prepared to deploy aircraft, Yonhap News reported, citing military officials it didn’t identify.

“This rapid-fire provocation indicates a more aggressive shift in the Kim Jong Il regime,” said Ryoo Kihl Jae, a professor at the University of North Korean Studies in Seoul. “Kim is obviously using a strategy of maximum force.”

Routine Threats

North Korea routinely issues threats directed at the U.S., South Korea and Japan, warning of military retaliation if they continue to take actions that the country’s leadership characterizes as threats to its security.

“We have a policy not to comment on each one of North Korea’s provocative remarks,” Kazuo Kodama, a spokesman for Japan’s Foreign Ministry, said by telephone.

The impact of the North Korean threat on markets was mostly localized, with South Korea’s benchmark Kospi stock index falling for a fifth day, the longest losing streak since February. The index declined 0.7 percent to 1,362.02. The won weakened 0.5 percent to 1,269.35 per dollar as of the 3 p.m. close of trade in Seoul.

The yield on government debt due in March 2014 rose six basis points to 4.58 percent, while the three-year yield added five basis points to 3.79 percent, according to data compiled by Bloomberg News.

Stocks Rise

Overall, Asian stocks rose, driving the MSCI Asia Pacific Index to the highest level in almost eight months, after U.S. consumer confidence jumped the most in six years and commodity prices climbed. European stocks also rose, pushing the Dow Jones Stoxx 600 Index higher for a third day. In the U.S., both the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index and the Dow Jones Industrial Average were down 0.1 percent at 9:33 a.m. in New York. U.S. Treasuries were little changed.

North Korea can’t guarantee the safety of ships passing through its western waters, KCNA said. The statement specified five islands controlled by the South that were the site of naval skirmishes in 1999 and 2002.

“What they are saying is that they will take military action if there is any action taken on behalf of the program such as boarding their ships, stopping and searching and so on,” said Han Sung Joo, a former South Korean foreign minister.

‘Deal Sternly’

South Korea’s military “will deal sternly with any provocation by North Korea, based on a strong South Korea-U.S. defense coalition,” Rear Admiral Lee Ki Sik of the Joint Chiefs of Staff said in an e-mailed statement. North Korea was making “obstinate claims” about nullifying the armistice, he said.

The U.S. has about 28,500 troops stationed in South Korea, according to the United States Forces Korea Web site.

South Korea yesterday agreed to join the Proliferation Security Initiative, or PSI, set up to locate and seize shipments of equipment and materials used to make weapons of mass destruction.

President Lee had resisted joining the PSI until the nuclear test, even after North Korea fired a ballistic missile on April 5. His predecessor, Roh Moo Hyun, had said that joining the initiative would be too provocative.

North Korea has also fired five short-range missiles in two days in a further display of military defiance. The United Nations Security Council agreed in an emergency session on May 25 to condemn the nuclear test and missile launches.

‘Cessation’ of Hostilities

Under the July 27, 1953, armistice that ended the Korean War, both sides agreed to “a complete cessation of all hostilities” and pledged to accept the demarcation line that has become the world’s most-heavily mined demilitarized zone.

North Korea may be preparing to reprocess spent fuel rods at its Yongbyon nuclear reactor, the Chosun Ilbo newspaper reported earlier today, citing an unidentified South Korean official. Steam has been rising from the facilities, the newspaper said.

Kim is 68, according to research groups including the U.S. Army War College’s Strategic Studies Institute, while the regime says he is a year younger. He probably suffered a stroke last August, according to U.S. intelligence officials, and disappeared from public view before presiding over a parliamentary session in April, when he looked gaunt and aged.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=awBTCPe7S2gw&refer=worldwide

[Q Classic]

Given:
1) That's the best possible reunification.

What, your military action-based regime change method? I highly disagree.

2) North Korea won't survive forever, so EVENTUALLY you will have to reunify.

Nobody disagrees with this, but there's a reason why SKorea wants to have a long, drawn-out peaceful reunification process.

3) While we sit around waiting for it to happen, North Korea is developing the ability to nuke targets anywhere in the region.

Yes. It's highly unlikely that it will use them, at the moment.

4) A North Korean regime that's about to fall will have nothing to lose.

Thta does not justify preemptively attacking.

What do you see as a likely outcome here?

I still cannot support military action in this regard, primarily because the costs are still too dear.