These "Stress Tests" Are Such Horse ****

[DanS]

Who's offering you 2%? Vanguard Prime is yielding a measly 0.58% (with a 0.28% expense ratio), for instance.

Agreed on the principle, just that it's not as easy a decision as you might think.

[KrazyHorse]

I have BAC at $6.50, should have sold at $11.50. Still, I want to hold until they release earnings. Then they can die.

How'd that work out for you?

[Saras]

What's really funny is that for all the whining about Wall Street it's the big commercial banks which are the ones really sucking at Uncle Sam's teat.

Goldman and Morgan Stanley didn't really need any money (directly, at least; I'm sure they're happy AIG wasn't allowed to fail). Bear, Lehman et al were allowed to go belly up with no real compensation to their equity holders. Citi and BAC are the ones on life support.

IIRC, Goldie had their AIG counterparty exposure collateralised, and what they hadn't they had hedged with CDS. The AIG bailout thus looks a lot like a simple payout to GS, Deutsche et al.

[Seeker]

"Morgan Stanley didn't really need any money"

It's kinda like, now we'll never really know right? I mean now they are allowed to obfuscate their accounting again naturally they look great. Maybe they are and maybe they aren't.

[Aeson]

How'd that work out for you?

From the looks of it... really, really well at worst. Nice call Japher (assuming he did sell at some point.)

Sure, he probably didn't get all the money in the trade, but only a lucky person ever will... might as well laugh at yourself for not winning the lotto.

[Theben]

I still have profit and not realizing it.

There's lots of things you don't realize.

[KrazyHorse]

From the looks of it... really, really well at worst. Nice call Japher (assuming he did sell at some point.)

Really really well = less good than buying the S&P over the same time period?

[KrazyHorse]

BTW, BAC released earnings yesterday. They're at 7.29 this morning.

Stock picking

[KrazyHorse]

Or perhaps you didn't read his:

Still, I want to hold until they release earnings. Then they can die.

[DanS]

Stock picking

He's not even stock picking. He's speculating.

[Arrian]

I put some money in a 12-month CD late last year (I think November) at 4%. I've also bought into the market, of course, but I wanted something sure. 4% ain't too shabby right now.

-Arrian

[Seeker]

http://www.usatoday.com/money/markets/2009-04-20-stock-market-monday_N.htm?poe=HFMostPopular

Even the most gravity-defiant 'dead cats' eventually return to earth.

[Patroklos]

At one point, Bove stated that 97% of loans are being repaid. I heard elsewhere that about 90% of mortgages are being repaid.

NPR has been saying this number (97%) since this whole thing started. People just ignored it.

[DirtyMartini]

One of the things I know jack-squat about is investing. Until recently, I haven't had to worry about it, as I've had no money. Now, I've pretty much got my emergency cash reserve set up, and I'm going to have to figure out what to do with my additional savings. I've browsed a little online stuff trying to figure stuff out. I've perused the Etrade, TradeKing, etc, sites to see what that's all about, but I haven't actually done anything yet.

Any pearls of wisdom regarding books/sites to read to get more info?

Also: Everyone says the "buy and hold" strategy is the smart play, and I see people scoffing at stock picking and speculating, but with the degree of volitility in the market right now, doesn't it make some sense to try a little gambling? For example: American Express, over the last five years, trades around 40/share. Recently areound 18/share and bouncing all over the place. Doesn't it make some sense to buy, see if you can get a nice uptick in the short term, if not, it's more than likely still a decent bet in the mid-long term, even if we find a new bottom (or two) in the meantime? I guess the trick is figuring out when the bottom bouncing ends and the prolonged recovery begins. I guess the long term view is just to see the whole market as a bargain and buy index funds and ride them.

Again, I know zero about anything, so let me know if any of that makes any sense.

[OzzyKP]

He's not even stock picking. He's speculating.

I bought Ford in January and it has gone up 90% since then.