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I like my chances too. 
The slack in the oil market is very large. On the order of 7 million bbl/day.
The slack in the oil market is very large. On the order of 7 million bbl/day.
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I came upon a barroom full of bad Salon pictures in which men with hats on the backs of their heads were wolfing food from a counter. It was the institution of the "free lunch" I had struck. You paid for a drink and got as much as you wanted to eat. For something less than a rupee a day a man can feed himself sumptuously in San Francisco, even though he be a bankrupt. Remember this if ever you are stranded in these parts. ~ Rudyard Kipling, 1891 -
At the time, this was "just in time". Our whole supply chain hit the wall that hard. We went from running overspeed on the machinery 24/7 and just barely keeping up with demand, to running slow four days a week (with a plant shutdown one week out of four) and still making more than our customers can take.Originally posted by DanS View PostNo, I did not steal that from somebody on Something Awful.Comment
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Oof. Europe's economy was down 2.5% in the first quarter (10.0% annualized, to compare to US figures of an annualized 6.1% decline). Germany's was down 3.8% in the first quarter (15.2% annualized). These are depression-type readings.
Europe’s Economy Contracts 2.5%, the Most Since 1995 (Update5)
By Simone Meier
May 15 (Bloomberg) -- Europe’s economy contracted at the fastest pace in at least 13 years in the first quarter as companies cut output and jobs to survive the worst global slump in more than six decades.
Gross domestic product in the 16-member euro region fell 2.5 percent from the fourth quarter, the biggest decline since the data were first compiled in 1995, the European Union’s statistics office in Luxembourg said today. That exceeded the 2 percent contraction economists expected in a Bloomberg survey and followed a 1.6 percent drop in the prior three months.
The deepest global recession since World War II is curbing European exports and eroding consumer demand, forcing companies to cut spending and jobs. The German and Italian economies also contracted by the most on record. Hong Kong’s economy shrank at the fastest pace since at least 1990, prompting the government to forecast a full-year contraction of as much as 6.5 percent.In Germany, Europe’s largest economy, GDP dropped 3.8 percent in the first quarter from the previous three months. That’s the biggest drop since data were first compiled in 1970. Italian GDP fell 2.4 percent, the most since records began in 1980, and the French economy shrank 1.2 percent in that period. The economies of the Netherlands and Austria also contracted.I came upon a barroom full of bad Salon pictures in which men with hats on the backs of their heads were wolfing food from a counter. It was the institution of the "free lunch" I had struck. You paid for a drink and got as much as you wanted to eat. For something less than a rupee a day a man can feed himself sumptuously in San Francisco, even though he be a bankrupt. Remember this if ever you are stranded in these parts. ~ Rudyard Kipling, 1891Comment
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Funny. For the past few weeks, we had quite a bit of hype over here (France, I don't about the rest of Europe's press) about how the recovery was beginning
"I have been reading up on the universe and have come to the conclusion that the universe is a good thing." -- Dissident
"I never had the need to have a boner." -- Dissident
"I have never cut off my penis when I was upset over a girl." -- DisComment
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Woot Spiffor sighting.
We could have done with your bestiality approval over the past fortnight though Spif...You just wasted six ... no, seven ... seconds of your life reading this sentence.Comment
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Ouch.
Japan’s economy shrinks record 4%
By Mure Dickie in Tokyo
Published: May 20 2009 02:25 | Last updated: May 20 2009 04:11
Japan’s economy contracted by a record 4 per cent quarter-on-quarter in the first three months of this year as domestic demand declined and an export rout continued, official data showed on Wednesday.
The decline in gross domestic product – equivalent to a extraordinary 15.2 per cent fall on an annualised basis – highlighted the woes facing the world’s second largest economy, which has now contracted for a record four quarters in a row.I came upon a barroom full of bad Salon pictures in which men with hats on the backs of their heads were wolfing food from a counter. It was the institution of the "free lunch" I had struck. You paid for a drink and got as much as you wanted to eat. For something less than a rupee a day a man can feed himself sumptuously in San Francisco, even though he be a bankrupt. Remember this if ever you are stranded in these parts. ~ Rudyard Kipling, 1891Comment
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What about helping domestic producers? Apparently, they've had enough of that in Germany...
The German Finance Minister Peer Steinbrück has told the BBC that Germany must begin to reduce its dependence on foreign trade.
Germany was ranked by the World Factbook as the biggest exporter in the world last year.
But the downturn in global trade caused by the credit crisis has hit it hard.
The German government expects the country's economy to contract by 6% this year, largely because of very steep falls in exports.
Some economists have argued that Germany had relied far too heavily on foreign trade, which made it rich in the boom times but left it vulnerable to a global crisis.
Its finance minister Peer Steinbrück has now admitted in an interview with the BBC that the current balance between foreign and domestic markets must start to change.He suggested that the service sector would have to be promoted and that education and training should be given to young people to meet the needs of Germany's ageing population.
We know all about how to do that State-side.I came upon a barroom full of bad Salon pictures in which men with hats on the backs of their heads were wolfing food from a counter. It was the institution of the "free lunch" I had struck. You paid for a drink and got as much as you wanted to eat. For something less than a rupee a day a man can feed himself sumptuously in San Francisco, even though he be a bankrupt. Remember this if ever you are stranded in these parts. ~ Rudyard Kipling, 1891Comment
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Assuming this a matter of choice and I'm hardly convinced of that. That's why I'm having issues with the term "export economy". It implies the weight of manufacturing in Germany's economy is the result of a deliberate gov't policy, and that deliberate gov't policy can remedy it, whereas Germany may simply be utilizing its comparative strength. It's hard for me to see which exact policies led to Germany to produce and export so much machinery and trucks and it's also hard for me to see what policies Germany should institute to counteract this. Slap special taxes on Siemens? Export quota on Volkswagen? Subsidize Bertelsmann and SAP?DISCLAIMER: the author of the above written texts does not warrant or assume any legal liability or responsibility for any offence and insult; disrespect, arrogance and related forms of demeaning behaviour; discrimination based on race, gender, age, income class, body mass, living area, political voting-record, football fan-ship and musical preference; insensitivity towards material, emotional or spiritual distress; and attempted emotional or financial black-mailing, skirt-chasing or death-threats perceived by the reader of the said written texts.Comment
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I'm guessing that Germany has a raft of special preferences for manufacturers and actively encourages German companies to keep manufacturing jobs in Germany. Corporate governance structures might restrict manufacturing jobs moving overseas, as one example.
Admittedly, I don't know how they could make a change because I have only a passing familiarity with the way things work over there.I came upon a barroom full of bad Salon pictures in which men with hats on the backs of their heads were wolfing food from a counter. It was the institution of the "free lunch" I had struck. You paid for a drink and got as much as you wanted to eat. For something less than a rupee a day a man can feed himself sumptuously in San Francisco, even though he be a bankrupt. Remember this if ever you are stranded in these parts. ~ Rudyard Kipling, 1891Comment
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Then how come France has exports almost three times as little? If anything, French policy surely must have an even greater bent towards manufacturing. I also am rather certain that restricting measures to a specific sector would fall foul of competition law.Originally posted by DanS View Post
This week's Economist published an article on Germany's as part of a series on global economic imbalances: http://www.economist.com/businessfin...ry_id=14177599
They have a fair point that the VAT increase and suppressing wages probably contributed towards depressed consumptions, however the article just falls apart when it comes to offering remedies. A VAT of 19% is pretty average in the EU so decreasing it probably wouldn't be a structural solution. German wages are to a large extent set by sectoral negotations between the labour unions and bosses. It seems bizarre that a free-marketeer would implicitly argue that A. labour unions have been too accommodative and B. the government should intervene to inflate wages, making wage setting even less market-determined than it already is.
They give to mention to the argument that comparative advantage may have led to the size of durables and capital goods, and that a lot of these firms by nature can't divert sales to the domestic sector (like you can't expect Saudi Arabia to make up for falling oil exports by making Aramco cater more to the domestic market) only to subsequently ignore these factors. I think they're (typically) giving way too much attention to the size of exports and the bent towards durables and capital goods rather than trying to explain why the proceeds tend to be saved and how to remedy this.DISCLAIMER: the author of the above written texts does not warrant or assume any legal liability or responsibility for any offence and insult; disrespect, arrogance and related forms of demeaning behaviour; discrimination based on race, gender, age, income class, body mass, living area, political voting-record, football fan-ship and musical preference; insensitivity towards material, emotional or spiritual distress; and attempted emotional or financial black-mailing, skirt-chasing or death-threats perceived by the reader of the said written texts.Comment
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Colon, I agree with you that in the case of a developed economy like Germany it may not be a matter of governmental choice that the durable goods segment is so pronounced relative to similar countries' economies. Nevertheless, there may be some unanticipated consequences to seemingly innocent governmental actions. I suggest further study of this issue by somebody more qualified and interested than myself.
I also agree, by the way, that it's a bit odd to see free-marketers urging governments to decide via some unspecified mechanism how their economies will be structured12-17-10 Mohamed Bouazizi NEVER FORGET
Stadtluft Macht Frei
Killing it is the new killing it
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Germans are taking advantage of the fact that "Made in Germany" is considered a sign of quality in a world flooded with Chinese goods. Decline of German manufacturing has been prophesized many times but they seem to survive. I don't think it has much to do with government policy, at least central goverment's.Comment
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Came across an interesting table: http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/540822520564
It's remarkable that Germany's investment rate is amongst the lowest in the OECD. ~3% of GDP lower than France or Belgium. That lends support to the proposition that German savings are going abroad because there aren't enough domestic investment opportunities. It's IMO one of the better explanations The Economist's article offered for the persisent current account surpluses.DISCLAIMER: the author of the above written texts does not warrant or assume any legal liability or responsibility for any offence and insult; disrespect, arrogance and related forms of demeaning behaviour; discrimination based on race, gender, age, income class, body mass, living area, political voting-record, football fan-ship and musical preference; insensitivity towards material, emotional or spiritual distress; and attempted emotional or financial black-mailing, skirt-chasing or death-threats perceived by the reader of the said written texts.Comment
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BTW Japan officially came out of recession this week.Try http://wordforge.net/index.php for discussion and debate.Comment
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Yeah, and China never went into recession.Originally posted by Oerdin View PostI drank beer. I like beer. I still like beer. ... Do you like beer Senator?
- Justice Brett KavanaughComment
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