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**Zkribbler** · February 9, 2009, 18:07

I read one headline saying this was Australia's worst fires ever. Hard to believe in light of those horrible fires they had a few years back. Awful.

**MOBIUS** · February 9, 2009, 19:55

Literally reaping the whirlwind of global warming...

I was out there back in 2002/3 and NSW was already gripped in a disastrous drought - this is the same drought!

When you have such a long drought, temps in excess of 40c, high winds and a flora designed to go up in flames - this sort of thing is inevitable.

So too, unfortunately, are arsonists...

**trev** · February 11, 2009, 04:33

[B]Possibly 300 dead[B]
The official death toll in the fires is now 181 people dead, but with some towns remaining to be searched, it is possible the toll may reach 300 dead. Entire towns with 500 inhabitants in some cases have been wiped out by the fires with an unknown death toll in those towns.
The intensity and speed of the fires were probably the most serious ever experienced by the world, so severe that although firefighters in this region of Australia frequently fight terrible fires, they were unable to protect properites or life in these series of fires.
The long drought, the 2 weeks of hot temperatures with no rain in the leadup to the fires, the extreme temperatures of 47C (about 118F) on the day with 100km winds and very low humidites made the fires impossible to fight and a sudden, dramatic windchange as the fires approached some major towns resulted in massive firestorms that totally devoured towns in minutes.
The fire organizations here warn people when fires are near that they should leave immediately, well before the approach of the fires, or stay and defend properties if they are well prepared to do so. Due to the extremely high death toll, this policy has been attacked. Some people are suggesting that compulsory evacuations should become the new policy, a kneejerk reaction as lack of sufficient warnings was the cause of the death toll in these fires, not an attempt to stay and defend. The warnings were not given as the sheer speed and size of the fires overwhelmed the ability of the firefighters to provide timely warnings, this also being the situation in other major fires in the last 30 years, in particular the Ash Wednesday fires in 1983 which claimed 73 lives. The fact is that when weather conditions are this bad, evacuations are not an option due to difficulties in providing early enough warnings, and therefore people must instead be trained to survive the fires in their own homes.
Many of the people who died were fleeing in cars and other vehicles and got caught by the fires in the open without adequate protection. Houses and other buildings provide much better protection from the severe radiant heat of bushfires even if the buildings catch alight. As buildings will take several minutes to burn, it is posible to spend the first several minutes inside the building before leaving the buildings fully clothed with no or minimal exposed skin safely, preferably with damp clothes. By this time the worst of the radiant heat would have passed making external conditions survivable even if very unpleasant.
The destroyed towns were surrounded by mountainous terrain which is heavily forested. In the past these forests were grazed by cattle during the summer months and logged infrequently with more frequent 'control burns' designed to reduce fire dangers and intensity. Due to the influence of greenies, cattle grazing and logging has generally ceased of native forests, and control burns have been reduced in number and area. Now the greenies blame global warming for the intensity of the fires, refusing to take blame for the policies they have forced on our governments which made the largest contribution to fire intensity.
A long period of drought and drier than usual seasons is primarily caused by cool waters in the Indian Ocean to the NW of Australia, possibly caused by brown smog from SE Asia and China containing large amounts of soot. Localised cooling is the major cause of our weather problems not global warming.
The immediate cause of the extreme heat on the days of the fires was a very slow moving high pressure system in the Tasman Sea and a very slow moving region of very hot air in the interior of Australia which had persisted for about 5 weeks, an approaching cold front which strengthened winds and brought the hot air southwards. This scenario is not uncommon in Australia and the associated temperatures normal for such a weather system, although very extreme in reality. Very similar conditions were also experienced in 1939 with similar temperatures, so no reason to blame global warming for the event although the environmental lobby already has.
About every 20 - 50 years, the SE region of the Australian continent experiences weather conditions that result in extremely deadly fires, 1939 and 1983 the prime examples with around 70 dead in each case, but other years also had extreme fire conditions, but with a lower toll of life. These fires were worse than previous years but better environmental decisions regarding cattle grazing, logging and control burns could have reduced the death toll in this case to make it more comparable to other severe fires.

**trev** · March 2, 2009, 05:48

Victorian fires update

Death toll now officially 210, some reports suggest 37 persons still missing

Despite massive efforts by many thousands of firefighters including interstate and overseas personnel, 4 large fires are not extinguished yet, all in mountainous heavily forested terrain.

The weather forecast for Tuesday 3rd march is for temperatures in mid 30'sC (mid 90'sF), winds strengthening to average speeds of 70kmh with gusts to 120kmh prior to a wind change to the SW from NW of similar force before it gradually eases over several days.
Due to almost total lack of rain for 2 1/2 months, this will raise fire dangers to similar levels of 3 weeks again when those hundreds of people died.
Once the SW change comes through there will be some rain and showers, probably not enough to put out the fires, but will make them less intense on future days. The weather also will be cool for a week or so at least. So if Victoria can survive tomorrow, the worst of the crisis will be over, but potentially the worst will be tomorrow.
Pray for Victoria tomorrow.

**Naked Gents Rut** · March 2, 2009, 07:00

Literally reaping the whirlwind of global warming...

Oh, jesus...

**SlowwHand** · March 2, 2009, 14:08

Once again, Bush is to blame.

**Lorizael** · March 2, 2009, 14:13

Well, they are called bushfires. Kind of hard not to get the blame.

**Dale** · March 2, 2009, 14:31

Originally posted by trev View Post

Victorian fires update

Death toll now officially 210, some reports suggest 37 persons still missing

Despite massive efforts by many thousands of firefighters including interstate and overseas personnel, 4 large fires are not extinguished yet, all in mountainous heavily forested terrain.

The weather forecast for Tuesday 3rd march is for temperatures in mid 30'sC (mid 90'sF), winds strengthening to average speeds of 70kmh with gusts to 120kmh prior to a wind change to the SW from NW of similar force before it gradually eases over several days.
Due to almost total lack of rain for 2 1/2 months, this will raise fire dangers to similar levels of 3 weeks again when those hundreds of people died.
Once the SW change comes through there will be some rain and showers, probably not enough to put out the fires, but will make them less intense on future days. The weather also will be cool for a week or so at least. So if Victoria can survive tomorrow, the worst of the crisis will be over, but potentially the worst will be tomorrow.
Pray for Victoria tomorrow.

Just to give you an idea of our fire threat:
- Melbourne has had literally NO rain for over two months (nothing at all)
- We are in the 11th year in a row of drought
- The condition of the bush is severely overgrown and tinder dry
- For the second time in history they've issued a hurricane warning for the state (140km+ winds) because of the mass-low pressure cell to hit us today

The cause isn't GW, no matter what you say. The cause is literally the same as the cause of the great fires of 1983 and 1936.

For 40,000 years Aborigines systematically burnt the bush to reduce undergrowth. They also used it to direct animals so they would help by eating the undergrowth. Recently Green policies of local councils in those areas, and the State Govt's own green policies, have banned winter backburning and the "Mountain Cattlemen" who used to take their cows up into the ranges to graze on the undergrowth.

Now we face a situation today where the fuel is at its highest and driest ever. Fire trucks can't use access roads as they are all overgrown. Dept of Sustainability has not been allowed to control burn for years. Etc etc.

This is how bad the politics are that the greenies have caused:
A guy in Marysville was fined $50,000 for breach of green regulations because he bulldozed a 100 metre radius of trees around his house. The local council regulations state no trees further than 10 metres from the house to be removed. The guy's house is the ONLY house standing within a 20 km radius after the fires of Black Saturday two weeks ago, and he's suing the council for his $50,000 back.

It's bad to be a greenie in Melbourne this month.

EDIT:
6am and can already smell the fires. Today has an ominous feeling.

**Dale** · March 2, 2009, 15:58

Bushfire crews prepare for battle

* Marika Dobbin
* March 3, 2009

MORE than 2500 firefighters battled through the night and thousands more will take up the fight this morning as Victoria faces one of the worst fire danger days in its history.

Winds of up to 120 km/h are expected to cause widespread power blackouts and enrage four massive bushfires that have been burning out of control for weeks.

As a total fire ban day was declared across the state and millions of Victorians were sent police text messages warning them of the dangers, firefighters prepared to abandon hard-won containment lines because of fears about the ferocity of flames and falling trees.

Authorities warned residents of towns closest to fire edges - such as Enoch Point, south of Eildon, Jamieson, Ten Mile and Kevington - that they would not have emergency services protection if they chose to stay with their homes.

Water-bombing aircraft could be grounded as strong northerlies and possible lightning strikes make flying too dangerous.

Almost 400 schools - including 49 Catholic and 23 independent schools - and 266 kindergartens, day care centres and creches will close today.

In a battle to prevent a repeat of the horrors of Black Saturday, there will be more firefighters and tankers on the ground than ever before, including more than 1100 interstate and international specialists.

All Country Fire Authority and Department of Sustainability and Environment crews have been pulled from forested areas and placed on standby to protect towns.

Premier John Brumby said conditions were not expected to be as bad as Black Saturday but still had the potential to threaten lives and property.

The conditions "will be as bad as those of Ash Wednesday or Black Friday . . . they are up there with the very worst conditions we have had in our state in the last 100 years", he said.

"The temperatures that we are going to see across the state ... aren't going to be up there in the high 40s, they'll be there in the 30s, but what's going to drive these extraordinarily dangerous conditions is the wind event."

The wind is forecast to reach more than 90 km/h by 9am, with the danger at its peak at about 6pm, when a south-westerly wind change is likely to redirect the fire front.

CFA chief officer Russell Rees pleaded for Victorians to have a plan and be prepared in case the fires descended. "Let me assure you we are not crying wolf," he said. "We are warning the people of Victoria that the situation is very dangerous ... in some circumstances, there will be no warning, it will happen rapidly, fires may occur, storm events may occur, you may lose power, so plan early."

DSE chief fire officer Ewan Waller said spot fires could ignite up to 14 kilometres ahead of existing fires in the high winds.

"The one of most concern is the one at the north-eastern end of the Kilmore East-Murrindindi fire. The main problem is around the Big River area just south of the Eildon Reservoir," Mr Waller said.

"Even under mild conditions, it's been spotting out on us, so we are expecting that fire to run . . . and actually move with the wind."

CFA deputy chief officer Steve Warrington said an index that measured fire danger showed results for today that approached those of February 7.

Mr Warrington said index scores of 50 and above placed an area in high fire danger. Scores above 70 meant firefighters would struggle to control the blaze. Figures for today show several areas over 200.

They include a score of 296 at Dunns Hill, near Ferny Creek, about 33 kilometres from the centre of Melbourne, 250 at Coldstream and 211 at Ballarat Airport.

The Upper Yarra and Thomson dams - which hold more than 57 per cent of Melbourne's drinking water - face a "serious threat", as the task of protecting supplies becomes increasingly complex.

Two smaller reservoir catchments areas were burnt last month, but today's winds could create much bigger headaches.

Melbourne Water managing director Rob Skinner feared northerly winds could push fires burning near Rubicon towards the Upper Yarra and Thomson catchments.

"We have serious concerns ... we are glad we've done all the containment we have done, but there's a real threat there at the moment," he said.

Bushfire crews prepare for battle

http://www.theage.com.au/national/bushfire-crews-prepare-for-battle-20090302-8mf4.html?page=-1

More than 2500 firefighters battled through the night and thousands more will take up the fight this morning as Victoria faces one of the worst fire danger days in its history.

**Zkribbler** · March 2, 2009, 17:25

Thanks for posting this, Dale.
It's still going on?!?

I thought this was over weeks ago.

**Dale** · March 2, 2009, 17:38

The fire's are still very real, very out of control, and very deadly. Yes, even two weeks on.

It's an extremely dangerous time for the state. For example, last Friday which was an extreme fire danger day, over 130 reported fires were started across the state.

We've had a small sprinkling of rain this morning, but completely useless in the scheme of things. It's almost 9am here and the wind is starting to pick up. They've adjusted the forcast with the worst winds (140km+) to occur about mid afternoon which the SW change comes through. That's usually the worst for fire fighters as the wind swings from the N to the SW in minutes and usually three times as fast.

I'll keep posting updates during the day if people are interested.

**SlowwHand** · March 2, 2009, 17:48

Hell yes, we're interested. Are the firefighters going to move early in anticipation of the wind shift? Either move or stay is a gamble.

**Dale** · March 2, 2009, 18:15

They've pretty much announced that they've done all the containment they can the last few days, but don't hold much hope of it stopping the fires for long. They're going to give up the bushland and concentrate on reducing damage in the towns. Basically, anyone not in a town in the danger areas are being told to head to their nearest town. They'll concentrate all resources there. They've said anyone outside of those points will be undefended and have to make do by themselves.

Apparently a lot of towns are deserted already.

The worst danger is to Melbourne's water supplies, where the biggest fire is. Approx 25% of the states water is in danger today of contamination. Another article below.

**Dale** · March 2, 2009, 18:16

In harm's way, hamlets hold their breath

* Ben Doherty
* March 3, 2009 - 8:46AM

Towns and hamlets in harm's way in central Victoria are holding their breath this morning as the state faces some of the worst fire weather in its history.

And with extreme weather warnings across the state, an arsonist has struck in Melbourne's suburbs, highlighting fears firefighters may be forced to deal with deliberately lit blazes on top of the major fires still burning after the horror of Black Saturday.

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An eerie calm hangs over the High Country township of Jamieson, near Eildon, this morning and the streets are deserted.

The tiny, picturesque mountain hamlet - predicted to be right in the fire’s path when an expected strong south-westerly change hits today - sits low in a valley, surrounded by wooded hills on all sides.

The forest looms large, claustrophobically close, on all sides, running right to backyards.

In the main street, a handful of Department of Sustainability and Environment trucks and firefighting appliances sit outside the Courthouse Hotel.

Many of the residents have already evacuated. In front yards, fully packed four-wheel-drives sit, ready for departure. Otherwise the streets are empty.

Shops are closed and classes and meetings at the community centre have been cancelled.

Two kilometres north of town, police have established a roadblock, allowing only locals and firefighters access.

The same road south is blocked at Woods Point. And the road to Eildon is closed too.

But the forecast winds haven’t yet reached Jamieson. It is still this morning, and light, intermittent rain is falling.

In Melbourne, firefighters were called to a scrub fire in bayside Chelsea early today.

The fire was noticed about 12.30am on the foreshore and burnt about a hectare before firefighters put it out.

Victoria Police Senior Constable Marty Beveridge said the fire was deliberately lit.

"Fires don't just happen on the foreshore like that unless people start them," he said.

Victoria's emergency services are on high alert, with strong winds today expected to fan bushfires still raging across parts of the state.

Weather forecasters have predicted a hot north-northwesterly wind gusting over 100km/h in many areas, and over 120km/h in alpine regions.

A Department of Sustainability and Environment spokesman early today said one of the key times would be when a cool change moves across the state.

"It is not just then though, it could be dangerous at any time. When you have gusty winds it can happen at any stage,'' he said.

He said about 2500 DSE firefighters were on the fire front with many more on call.

Bureau of Meteorology senior forecaster Peter Blake said the change would start moving across the state about lunchtime and hit Melbourne about 6pm. Worryingly, the change would also bring lightning.

Light rain fell across central and southern areas, including Melbourne, this morning but the weather bureau said this would not ease conditions. Severe weather warnings remained in place everywhere except the northern and Mallee regions.

About 300 schools and 250 childcare centres will be closed today because of the fire risk.

Four major fires are still burning out of control with the blaze at Kilmore-Murrindindi North causing the most concern, particularly to the communities of Woods Point, Jamieson, Eildon and Mount Buller.

Kevin Monk, of the DSE, told the Seven Network fire crews used the calmer weather overnight to work on control lines, but the state was tinder dry and the day would be trying for all concerned.

Up to 5000 firefighters and SES personnel are on high alert today in the biggest emergency services operation in Victoria's history.

Police have urged anyone with information about the Chelsea fire to contact CrimeStoppers on 1800 333 000.

In harm's way, hamlets hold their breath

http://www.theage.com.au/national/in-harms-way-hamlets-hold-their-breath-20090303-8mjo.html?page=-1

A deliberately lit grass fire in Melbourne has been extinguished as Victoria faces some of the worst fire weather in its history.

Arsonists should be shot on site!

Announcement

Bushfires claim possibly hundreds in Australia

Bushfires claim possibly hundreds in Australia

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