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Good News for US and China: They will become more like Europe

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  • Good News for US and China: They will become more like Europe



    In the United States, the global stock market rout has wiped out trillions of dollars in retirement savings and rising unemployment is leaving more people without health insurance. In response, officials of the new administration of President Barack Obama have been busy studying the Swedish bank bailout of the 1990s and the Swiss and Dutch health care systems and have been quietly contemplating whether Europe's high fuel taxes and carbon trading system are the right way to limit the burning of fossil fuels that contributes to global warming.

    In China, where the demise of the American consumer has exposed the perils of excessive savings at home, the government has not only recently proffered a big Keynesian-style stimulus program but has also just announced a three-year plan to provide universal health care. Though modest by comparison, China's health care plan goes in the direction of what has long been considered a fundamental right in Europe.

    "When the world's biggest economy and the world's biggest emerging economy look for lessons in the same place at the same time, you know something is up," said Kenneth Rogoff, a professor at Harvard University and former chief economist of the International Monetary Fund, who is one of the 2,500 participants in Davos this year. "We are seeing a paradigm shift towards a more European, a more social state."
    .
    On paper, the euro zone may look worse than both. Parts of its financial system are reeling, too, and economic growth is expected to fall for much of 2009, while many economists expect the United States to resume growth in the second half of the year. Growth in China is only slowing, not going into reverse.

    But unlike the other two, Europe faces less fundamental questioning of its social contract. Higher benefits and broad-based consumption taxes serve as automatic stabilizers of the business cycle, restraining growth in good times but cushioning the downturns.

    "Europe faces a plain vanilla recession," said Rogoff of Harvard. "It's a deep recession and it's coming with a vengeance. But it's not a paradigm destruction."
    it was about the time for tide to turn ... but the real problem with big US gov is that it is really inefficient one, it's like UK, so in that sense smaller it is - the better for everyone... they need to study the French and even better Swedes to learn the art of how to best manage "The bureaucracy is expanding to meet the needs of the expanding bureaucracy"
    Socrates: "Good is That at which all things aim, If one knows what the good is, one will always do what is good." Brian: "Romanes eunt domus"
    GW 2013: "and juistin bieber is gay with me and we have 10 kids we live in u.s.a in the white house with obama"

  • #2
    Originally posted by OneFootInTheGrave View Post
    http://www.iht.com/articles/2009/01/...ift-416683.php



    it was about the time for tide to turn ... but the real problem with big US gov is that it is really inefficient one, it's like UK, so in that sense smaller it is - the better for everyone... they need to study the French and even better Swedes to learn the art of how to best manage "The bureaucracy is expanding to meet the needs of the expanding bureaucracy"
    Oh. I thought from the thread title that the US and China were going to split into pathetic little countries that massacre each other by the millions a couple times a century.
    Long time member @ Apolyton
    Civilization player since the dawn of time

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    • #3
      No, we'll continue to channel our aggressive impulses outwards, onto countries with suspiciously brown people in them.
      1011 1100
      Pyrebound--a free online serial fantasy novel

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      • #4
        Originally posted by Elok View Post
        No, we'll continue to channel our aggressive impulses outwards, onto countries with suspiciously brown people in them.
        Blowing other people's **** up
        Which side are we on? We're on the side of the demons, Chief. We are evil men in the gardens of paradise, sent by the forces of death to spread devastation and destruction wherever we go. I'm surprised you didn't know that. --Saul Tigh

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        • #5
          Originally posted by Lancer View Post
          Oh. I thought from the thread title that the US and China were going to split into pathetic little countries that massacre each other by the millions a couple times a century.
          hey we haven't started yet this century... there are 7 more years left to 2014 (which is behind 2012 mind you)
          Socrates: "Good is That at which all things aim, If one knows what the good is, one will always do what is good." Brian: "Romanes eunt domus"
          GW 2013: "and juistin bieber is gay with me and we have 10 kids we live in u.s.a in the white house with obama"

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          • #6
            Yeah, the universal health care system is sorely needed in China. For a while they had the barefoot doctor service, which was at least universal (even if it was barebones) but now the hospitals charge an arm and a leg and nobody has insurance. Or at least, nobody who's not wealthy.

            My parents accompanied the maid to the hospital because her husband had an attack of hepatitis, I think. (The treatable version, not hep C.) The hospital would have turned him away had my parents not been there to pay the service fee.

            It came to something like 20k RMB, which would have been about 2.5k USD. A considerable price even in the US (though one fairly well absorbed by a middle class family). For a Chinese family where the father is a factory worker and the mother is a maid to a wealthy foreign couple, it would have been impossible to meet.

            So to health care reform in China. Especially since the national Constitution names it as one of the services the Communist party pledged to the people.
            "lol internet" ~ AAHZ

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            • #7
              The way to decrease the size of the bureaucracy:

              Your salary is inversely correlated to your budget. You start with a base salary of X (say, $50,000). If you exceed your budget, your salary decreases by the percentage you exceed your budget. If you successfully go in under budget, your salary increases by the percentage you make it under budget.

              Oh yeah, and budgets for major departments are voted on democratically (by the people as a whole), ie the HHS, the DoD, etc. budgets; their directors may then allocate them as they see fit but they have the same incentive.
              <Reverend> IRC is just multiplayer notepad.
              I like your SNOOPY POSTER! - While you Wait quote.

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              • #8
                On paper, the euro zone may look worse than both. Parts of its financial system are reeling, too, and economic growth is expected to fall for much of 2009, while many economists expect the United States to resume growth in the second half of the year. Growth in China is only slowing, not going into reverse.

                But unlike the other two, Europe faces less fundamental questioning of its social contract. Higher benefits and broad-based consumption taxes serve as automatic stabilizers of the business cycle, restraining growth in good times but cushioning the downturns.

                "Europe faces a plain vanilla recession," said Rogoff of Harvard. "It's a deep recession and it's coming with a vengeance. But it's not a paradigm destruction."
                It says that the recession is going to impact Europe more than the US, but yet says that Europe's system cushions downturns. How?

                I don't see any fundamental questioning of the social contract here in the US, I can't speak for China. But this article seems like crap.
                Captain of Team Apolyton - ISDG 2012

                When I was younger I thought curfews were silly, but now as the daughter of a young woman, I appreciate them. - Rah

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                • #9
                  Originally posted by snoopy369 View Post
                  The way to decrease the size of the bureaucracy:
                  Oh yeah, and budgets for major departments are voted on democratically (by the people as a whole), ie the HHS, the DoD, etc. budgets; their directors may then allocate them as they see fit but they have the same incentive.
                  So, some day, people are asked to come to vote for the budget...
                  And the budget to organize that vote is... voted democratically....
                  The books that the world calls immoral are the books that show the world its own shame. Oscar Wilde.

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                  • #10
                    The budget to organize that vote is decided by me, of course. $0.76 and a bus pass, to every voter.
                    <Reverend> IRC is just multiplayer notepad.
                    I like your SNOOPY POSTER! - While you Wait quote.

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                    • #11
                      Originally posted by snoopy369 View Post
                      The way to decrease the size of the bureaucracy:

                      Your salary is inversely correlated to your budget. You start with a base salary of X (say, $50,000). If you exceed your budget, your salary decreases by the percentage you exceed your budget. If you successfully go in under budget, your salary increases by the percentage you make it under budget.

                      Oh yeah, and budgets for major departments are voted on democratically (by the people as a whole), ie the HHS, the DoD, etc. budgets; their directors may then allocate them as they see fit but they have the same incentive.
                      I foresee a lot of rich department heads and incomplete/shoddily completed projects.
                      Click here if you're having trouble sleeping.
                      "We confess our little faults to persuade people that we have no large ones." - François de La Rochefoucauld

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                      • #12
                        Originally posted by OzzyKP View Post
                        It says that the recession is going to impact Europe more than the US, but yet says that Europe's system cushions downturns. How?

                        I don't see any fundamental questioning of the social contract here in the US, I can't speak for China. But this article seems like crap.
                        It referenced that it will impact EU growth more than US, but it also points out that the big players are starting to realize as well that growth is not everything...

                        unemployment rise was less in Europe, and the people who are unemployed have a lot more so to speak than their counterparts in US, including health insurance, easing the effects of the recession... so overall the balance is swinging towards more even distribution of money via the government than towards the "trickle-down" principles of Regan/Bush years... so I guess the question is swinging towards "what do you do with all those people on the streets" again, which we in Europe are well accustomed to, as well there were always more of those here, and we did grow fond of having a default security net around us for unforseen events... sure the issue is on how to stop the abuse, but not having the net is not the only way of dealing with it...

                        So while unemployment overall is typically higher than in US, not to mention Japan (but if you look regionally, there are smaller countries with typically less unemployment than US, while still maintaining Euro based social state), it also grew a lot slower during this recession showing some of the buffer effect... In April EU was at 7.3% while US was at 5% and by December the regions are getting close 7.2% in US, 7.8% in EU Dec 08...

                        forecast for US...

                        The unemployment rate is forecast to peak at a 25-year high of 8.8% early next year, up from 7.2% in December, according to the median in a survey of 52 economists conducted by USA TODAY Jan. 15-22.p
                        Socrates: "Good is That at which all things aim, If one knows what the good is, one will always do what is good." Brian: "Romanes eunt domus"
                        GW 2013: "and juistin bieber is gay with me and we have 10 kids we live in u.s.a in the white house with obama"

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