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Transition source: Obama to extend "nuclear umbrella" to Israel?

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  • Transition source: Obama to extend "nuclear umbrella" to Israel?

    I thought this was already the case, at least informally? And doesn't Israel have enough nukes to handle MAD on their own?

    Obama's atomic umbrella: U.S. nuclear strike if Iran nukes Israel

    By Aluf Benn, Haaretz Correspondent

    U.S. President-elect Barack Obama's administration will offer Israel a "nuclear umbrella" against the threat of a nuclear attack by Iran, a well-placed American source said earlier this week. The source, who is close to the new administration, said the U.S. will declare that an attack on Israel by Tehran would result in a devastating U.S. nuclear response against Iran.

    But America's nuclear guarantee to Israel could also be interpreted as a sign the U.S. believes Iran will eventually acquire nuclear arms.

    Secretary of state-designate Hillary Clinton had raised the idea of a nuclear guarantee to Israel during her campaign
    for the Democratic Party's nomination for the presidency. During a debate with Obama in April, Clinton said that Israel and Arab countries must be given "deterrent backing." She added, "Iran must know that an attack on Israel will draw a massive response."
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    Clinton also proposed that the American nuclear umbrella be extended to other countries in the region, like Saudi Arabia and the Gulf States, if they agree to relinquish their own nuclear ambitions.

    According to the same source, the nuclear guarantee would be backed by a new and improved Israeli anti-ballistic missile system. The Bush administration took the first step by deploying an early-warning radar system in the Negev, which hones the ability to detect Iranian ballistic missiles.

    Obama said this week that he would negotiate with Iran and would offer economic incentives for Tehran to relinquish its nuclear program. He warned that if Iran refused the deal, he would act to intensify sanctions against the Islamic Republic.

    Granting Israel a nuclear guarantee essentially suggests the U.S. is willing to come to terms with a nuclear Iran. For its part, Israel opposes any such development and similar opposition was voiced by officials in the outgoing Bush administration.

    "What is the significance of such guarantee when it comes from those who hesitated to deal with a non-nuclear Iran?" asked a senior Israeli security source. "What kind of credibility would this [guarantee have] when Iran is nuclear-capable?"


    The same source noted that the fact that there is talk about the possibility of a nuclear Iran undermines efforts to prevent Tehran from acquiring such arms.

    A senior Bush administration source said that the proposal for an American nuclear umbrella for Israel was ridiculous and lacked credibility. "Who will convince the citizen in Kansas that the U.S. needs to get mixed up in a nuclear war because Haifa was bombed? And what is the point of an American response, after Israel's cities are destroyed in an Iranian nuclear strike?"

    The current debate is taking place in light of the Military Intelligence assessment that Iran has passed beyond the point of no return, and has mastered the technology of uranium enrichment. The decision to proceed toward the development of nuclear arms is now purely a matter for Iran's leaders to decide. Intelligence assessments, however, suggest that the Iranians are trying to first accumulate larger quantities of fissile material, and this offers a window of opportunity for a last-ditch diplomatic effort to prevent an Iranian bomb.

    http://haaretz.com/hasen/spages/1045687.html
    Unbelievable!

  • #2
    I thought this was already the case, at least informally?


    ?

    Why would it be the case? As you say:

    doesn't Israel have enough nukes to handle MAD on their own?
    12-17-10 Mohamed Bouazizi NEVER FORGET
    Stadtluft Macht Frei
    Killing it is the new killing it
    Ultima Ratio Regum

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    • #3
      because Haifa was bombed?
      Hey!

      Comment


      • #4
        quote:
        doesn't Israel have enough nukes to handle MAD on their own?
        well the question is can Israel secure a second-strike option, as it is likely Israel's missile bases will be targetted on first attack.

        anyhow, an all out nuclear attack by Iran is unlikely (even though you can't rule it out completely), so whole nuclear umbrella issue doesn't help at all.

        Comment


        • #5
          Israel has enough nukes. But does it have a credible delivery system?

          IMHO, this is a good policy, but it should come from Congress, not from the Prez.

          "Who will convince the citizen in Kansas that the U.S. needs to get mixed up in a nuclear war because Haifa was bombed?
          "The U.S. will consider any nuclear attacked launched from Cuba against any state in the Western Hemisphere to be an attack by the Soviet Union upon the United States." ... JFK, Oct. 1963.

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          • #6
            Originally posted by Sirotnikov

            well the question is can Israel secure a second-strike option, as it is likely Israel's missile bases will be targetted on first attack.
            Wouldn't Israel detect Iranian nukes heading for its sky in time? I figure Israel would have enough time left to launch its own nukes to Iran.
            "An archaeologist is the best husband a women can have; the older she gets, the more interested he is in her." - Agatha Christie
            "Non mortem timemus, sed cogitationem mortis." - Seneca

            Comment


            • #7
              Originally posted by KrazyHorse
              I thought this was already the case, at least informally?


              ?

              Why would it be the case? As you say:

              doesn't Israel have enough nukes to handle MAD on their own?
              I dunno, I guess part of me assumed that were Israel to be nuked, and hit hard enough that its retaliatory capacity couldn't realize the MAD threatened, that the U.S. would take some sort of military action against Iran, but absent any formal agreement or explicit statement to that effect, it was a stupid assumption on my part.

              In reality the far more interesting aspect of this story is the implication that an Obama administration would allow Iran to develop nukes if they so choose, which would make the Israelis more prone to making a pre-emptive strike of their own. On the campaign trail he kept refusing to take airstrikes off the table because it's inappropriate to "show your hand" etc., but this source's revelation - if true - would do precisely that. Why "deter" what they're not supposed to be obtaining in the first place?
              Unbelievable!

              Comment


              • #8
                Originally posted by Traianvs


                Wouldn't Israel detect Iranian nukes heading for its sky in time? I figure Israel would have enough time left to launch its own nukes to Iran.
                This is the mother-flippin' trouble with first-strike weapons. You think the other side has launched, so you HAVE TO launch your missiles so that they will survive. A few minutes later, you discover you were mistaken but TOO LATE -- You're already in a nuclear war.

                Comment


                • #9
                  Originally posted by Darius871


                  I dunno, I guess part of me assumed that were Israel to be nuked, and hit hard enough that its retaliatory capacity couldn't realize the MAD threatened, that the U.S. would take some sort of military action against Iran, but absent any formal agreement or explicit statement to that effect, it was a stupid assumption on my part.

                  In reality the far more interesting aspect of this story is the implication that an Obama administration would allow Iran to develop nukes if they so choose, which would make the Israelis more prone to making a pre-emptive strike of their own. On the campaign trail he kept refusing to take airstrikes off the table because it's inappropriate to "show your hand" etc., but this source's revelation - if true - would do precisely that. Why "deter" what they're not supposed to be obtaining in the first place?
                  Perhaps Obama wishes to prevent the imminent conflict. If Iran is about to finish developing the nukes, Israel will hit the country for sure. The US would be more or less required to take sides with Israel - being allies after all. The US would lose face in the Middle-East, and get involved in an unwanted conflict.

                  Obama can't denounce his support to Israel either, as in fact he's pretty close with the Israelian lobby. This moves keeps him in the middle ground: Obama still endorses Israel, but only in case of an Iranian attack. Israel won't get US support in case of an attack on Iran, but Iran won't be able to use its nukes to blackmail or intimidate Israel, which would effectively be changing the balance of power in the area.

                  It's just a hunch, but maybe there's something to it?
                  "An archaeologist is the best husband a women can have; the older she gets, the more interested he is in her." - Agatha Christie
                  "Non mortem timemus, sed cogitationem mortis." - Seneca

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    That's one theory, the other is that imminent conflict is made only more likely by making 100% crystal-clear to Israel that the U.S. would allow a nuclear-armed Iran, and thus giving them more incentive to strike Iran than when the U.S. position was ambiguous. Obama had repeatedly stated that a nuclear-armed Iran would be an "unacceptable" "game-changer," and refused to take airstrikes off the table, which could have left Israel peacefully wondering if he might prevent it himself, but now they'll know if they don't do it, nobody will.

                    To think this would stop Israel from making its own strike is not necessarily to assume that Iran could be so easily deterred from making a conventional nuclear attack or (more likely) an unconventional one by proxy, but rather to assume that Israel would make that assumption. Whether they would, I can't say.
                    Unbelievable!

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                    • #11
                      Killing millions people for revenge
                      "

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Originally posted by Traianvs


                        Wouldn't Israel detect Iranian nukes heading for its sky in time? I figure Israel would have enough time left to launch its own nukes to Iran.
                        we might but it's a matter of seconds to minutes.

                        you forget that the distance between Iran and Israel is tiny.

                        if we ever want to be prepared to strike back, we need enough active intelligence regarding preparations for launch.

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          I wonder if the Iranian elections will play a role in this. In 2009 presidential elections will be held, and Ahmadinejad's party already lost the 2006 council elections. There's some stiff domestic opposition in Iran, so what if he is outvoted by a more moderate candidate... Perhaps, like the US needed Obama to have a president willing to initiate constructive dialogue, Iran could experience a similar scenario in the near future.

                          Hard to tell though.. Iranian politics don't appear much in the media around here
                          "An archaeologist is the best husband a women can have; the older she gets, the more interested he is in her." - Agatha Christie
                          "Non mortem timemus, sed cogitationem mortis." - Seneca

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            Originally posted by Sirotnikov

                            well the question is can Israel secure a second-strike option, as it is likely Israel's missile bases will be targetted on first attack.

                            anyhow, an all out nuclear attack by Iran is unlikely (even though you can't rule it out completely), so whole nuclear umbrella issue doesn't help at all.
                            I would assume that Israel is smart enough to hide its missile bases from Iran. Not to mention the fact that Iran doesn't even have a single weapon yet. Never mind enough to wipe out Israeli nuke capability.
                            12-17-10 Mohamed Bouazizi NEVER FORGET
                            Stadtluft Macht Frei
                            Killing it is the new killing it
                            Ultima Ratio Regum

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              Nuclear deterrent works so well because if you miss EVEN ONE missile the consequences for you are catastrophic.
                              12-17-10 Mohamed Bouazizi NEVER FORGET
                              Stadtluft Macht Frei
                              Killing it is the new killing it
                              Ultima Ratio Regum

                              Comment

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