US house prices in freefall -- le deuxième

[One_more_turn]

Canadians shouldn't gloat too much:

1. Ontario is already in recession;

2. If oil price stays below $50 or even $40 for prolonged period, you will see lots of oil sand outfits going bust or projects getting cancelled. Then you will get the usual mass layoffs and property busts, which in turn will threaten the relatively healthy Canadian banking industry.

[DanS]

Hate to gainsay your morose drama, but the US is already socialist. Has been since the Great Depression.

I would laugh at you, but I guess I'm not in the mood.

[Dinner]

Originally posted by KrazyHorse


Southwestern irrational exuberance

Las Vegas 146.58 -2.6% -31.3%
Los Angeles 184.54 -2.5% -27.6%
Phoenix 139.79 -3.5% -31.9%
San Diego 164.12 -2.4% -26.3%
San Francisco 145.53 -3.9% -29.5%

The only non-southwest which even comes close is

Miami 178.72 -2.6% -28.4%

You know things are bad when -26.3% is considered one of the better performers. This is on top of last year's horrible price falls and what will likely be next year's horrible price falls. A good time to buy IF you can get credit.

On the upside most of the sales these days are either foreclosures or distress sales. Most of the people aren't selling unless they have too.

[One_more_turn]

Originally posted by DanS
Hate to gainsay your morose drama, but the US is already socialist. Has been since the Great Depression.

I would laugh at you, but I guess I'm not in the mood.

There had been a reaction by free market fundamentalists from 1981 to 2007.

As I said in another post, ALL highly leveraged financial institutions are at great risk of being nationalized because they are effectively insolvent.

[DanS]

The reaction from 1981 to 2007 was just tweaking around the edges and besides, it wasn't unidirectional.

Regarding financial institutions, the nationalizations are regrettable, but I don't think this represents a new path to socialism. Perhaps it is a path to a more onerous form of socialism. But we have been futzing with the mortgage market on an enormous scale for many decades, after all.

[KrazyHorse]

Originally posted by One_more_turn
Canadians shouldn't gloat too much:

Who's gloating? I wish only the best for the US.



I'm laughing at your ridiculous contention.

[One_more_turn]

My ridiculous contention may sound too optimistic in 2 years.

My motto has always been "prepare for the worst and hope for the best".

[DanS]

Simply, the problem with your post is that it doesn't make sense.

I wish it did.

[KrazyHorse]

Really? From what I've seen of your posts I would assume it was "Slower, Weaker, Lower"...

[Zkribbler]

Originally posted by DanS
.... the US is already socialist. Has been since the Great Depression.

Has anyone told Bill Gates or Warren Buffet??

[notyoueither]

Originally posted by One_more_turn
Canadians shouldn't gloat too much:

1. Ontario is already in recession;

2. If oil price stays below $50 or even $40 for prolonged period, you will see lots of oil sand outfits going bust or projects getting cancelled. Then you will get the usual mass layoffs and property busts, which in turn will threaten the relatively healthy Canadian banking industry.

Delayed, for the most part. This started happening earlier in the summer. Projects started getting shelved due to labour costs, shoddy work from both blue and white collar due to labour shortage, and material costs.

The buzz is it'll take 12 to 24 months for the labour market to return to anything resembling normal.

This shouldn't threaten Canada's banks though. They are healthy for reasons other than petro dollars. Of course, the petro dollars have not hurt either.

[Lefty Scaevola]

San Antonio TX for 2008 is still showing a gain in median home price for 2008, 5% for the most recent look I had. I expect that will change by year end to close to neutral. Much of the 'increase' may be the correcting of previous underestimates of of values for the upper end of the market in prior years.

[TCO]

Ou est le premier?