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Interesting Timeline of Lehman's Collapse (For Dummies)

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  • #16
    Apologies for the encoding if it's displaying weird for anyone -- if you switch the character set (in FF, View -> Character coding) to "Western" it should work.

    Edit: Although for some reason, this post is best viewed in Unicode

    There's a lot more to to the doc if anyone is interested. Here's the section on legislation:

    The government has played a huge role in setting up, financing and regulating the capital markets. Over the years, critical pieces of legislation have fundamentally changed the way that money moves. In other cases, regulations from the SEC or other groups have had similar effects. This section highlights a few of the major items related to the current crisis.

    Community Reinvestment Act
    The CRA was passed in 1977 as a way to encourage banks to lend more to inner cities, minorities and other areas that were/are traditionally “underserved”. Of course, the areas were underserved primarily because of the high risk of default and low rate of return. Therefore, the CRA had a stick in the form of “regulatory oversight”. That is, any bank attempting to merge with or acquire another company had to have a positive CRA rating. The banks looked on the CRA as a “charity tax” and donated money, gave risky loans and performed other non-business savy acts as a way to get approval for big mergers.

    Two important things about CRA that have to be included as part of the story:

    • Housing prices tracked inflation in a flat line until after CRA, when prices started to decouple from inflation. This effect may not be causal, but it is definitely correlated since the CRA predates the other legislation and many of the “causes” people point to for starting the housing bubble.

    • The CRA wasn’t necessarily the direct cause of the problem but it created the opportunity. The CRA didn’t force banks to give bad loans, but it did suggest that they give more to less qualified borrowers if they wanted consideration for mergers and other regulatory acts. So the banks gave a few bad loans… kind of like the first guy who sold a Tulip in Holland. The first price probably wasn’t unreasonable, but it opened the door and created the market. Throw the deregulation efforts of the 80’s on top of it, and you get a massive mess very quickly.

    The first MBS (from Bear, consisting of Fannie/Freddie secured Alt-A and subprime loans issued under the CRA) creates a demand. The lack of regulation means Wall Street sees massive dollars in CDO and MBS creation. Banks see massive dollars in originating and selling off loans. Non bank mortgage originators see a “safe target” in poor and vulnerable communities. Borrowers see “Free money” and a chance to get a house they never thought they could afford. So even though it isn’t fair to place all the blame on Jimmy Carter & the Democrats in the 70’s, you can very easily put the CRA in the class of legislation that caused unintended consequences through social engineering.

    Yes, CRA only applies to FDIC banks. Yes, most of the sub-prime and alt-a nonsense was created by mortgage companies that weren’t banks, and thus weren’t under CRA anyway. However, most of those mortgage companies only exist because the big banks did the first loans (guaranteed by Freddie/Fannie) under the CRA, and then the investment banks did the first MBS and CDO offerings, creating the demand for crap loans to turn into gold.

    So greed was a huge multiplier, but greed only matters if the preconditions exist for greed to have a chance. Some legislation (FHA, CRA) opened the door and other legislation (repeal of Glass-Steagall, etc) encouraged incentives for greed to grow unregulated. I don’t see the story as a simple “this is the thing that caused it all” as much as a “look at all these places where something could have been done”.

    Further Reading
    • http://bigpicture.typepad.com/commen...erstandin.html
    • http://www.ffiec.gov/cra/
    • http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Community_Reinvestment_Act

    Glass Steagall Act
    The Glass Steagall Act was passed in 1933 as a response to the great depression. Basically, the US government decided to break up the functions of a bank into different companies. Essentially, investment banks had to be separate from commercial banks. The theory was that this approach would prevent commercial banks from recklessly speculating with depositor money. The separation of “granting credit” from “using credit” was supposed to prevent conflicts of interest that were perceived to have contributed to the market meltdown in 1929. Other parts of the act created the FDIC.

    The act was revised in 1956 to further separate insurance underwriting (“protecting credit”) from banking practices. An insurance underwriter could neither be a commercial bank nor an investment bank. This act is why a CDS is called a “swap” rather than simply “credit insurance”. If a Swap was considered insurance, it would be illegal for the investment banks to originate the deals.

    Many of the classic “big banks” had to break up into multiple companies or reduce their services and focus on one side or the other. Some banks got around the act by creating superficial commercial banks (e.g. Lehman Brothers Bank) which exist solely for compliance reasons.
    The law was partially repealed in 1999 with the passage of the Gramm-Leach-Blilely Act. Other portions were repealed or modified under other regulation throughout the 80’s and 90’s.

    Further Reading
    • http://www.investopedia.com/articles/03/071603.asp
    • http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Glass-Steagall_Act

    Gramm Leach Bliley Act
    This act, also called the Financial Services Modernization Act, repealed parts of Glass-Steagall relating to separation of banking activities. Commercial banks, Investment banks and insurance underwriters were allowed to consolidate. One of the first (and the one that prompted the act) was the merger of Citibank and Travellers Group. Note that this merger has recently dissolved, with Citi splitting of parts of Travelers and selling the rest to Metlife.

    The primary argument for the act was that people put money into savings when the economy is bad (benefiting commercial banks) but invest when the economy is good (benefiting investment banks). Neither group was well suited to survive the various “lean times”, however a combined company would get the best of both worlds.
    The most interesting part of the act was that any merger had to have a “satisfactory CRA rating”. Essentially, this means that the bank has to convince the CRA auditors that the bank supports community reinvestment. Usually, this process worked as a defacto bribe/greenmail system where big banks would dump tons of cash on groups like ACORN just before a CRA audit. From the bank perspective, CRA money was wasted in high risk, low payout loans to unqualified borrowers.

    Further Reading
    • http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gramm-Leach-Bliley_Act
    • http://banking.senate.gov/conf/
    • http://banking.senate.gov/conf/grmleach.htm

    Securities Acts Amendments (May Day)
    In 1975, the government removed the regulation that fixed commission prices for brokerages. In other words, brokerages were free to compete on price of transaction rather than on services. Much as deregulation of airline fares killed some companies and made new ones, the May Day changes killed some investment banks and brokerage houses and allowed new ones to form. Quite simply, the revenue model changed drastically and banks had to rapidly adapt. This act basically forced a lot of the creativity in capital markets that led to the explosion in the 80’s and 90’s.

    For example, Salomon Brothers in the early 80’s made more money than almost all of the other brokerages combined. Since they weren’t competing for fixed price commissions, Salomon made money by creating innovative products and services and essentially making new markets all over the place (including… yes… Mortgage Backed Securities!).

    Further Reading
    • http://curiouscapitalist.blogs.time....all_repeal_it/
    • http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/30031a6c-8...077b07658.html

    2004 Leverage Adjustment
    In 2004, the SEC changed the leverage limits for a handful of institutions. Rather than the 12 to 1 cap most financial services work with, Lehman, AIG, Bear, Freddie, Fannie and a few others were allowed to leverage up to 30 to 1. Obviously, removing a hard cap on leverage encourages the firms to make larger and riskier bets.
    The reason for the change is a little unclear as the actual decision was made by the SEC and very little information is easily available.
    "The issue is there are still many people out there that use religion as a crutch for bigotry and hate. Like Ben."
    Ben Kenobi: "That means I'm doing something right. "

    Comment


    • #17
      Who to blame

      Given the scope of the current financial crisis, affixing blame is simply a matter of preference rather than definable reality. Depending on your time frame, political leanings, personal point of view, definition of blame and awareness of the players, you can blame almost anyone. In this section, we look at a few of the usual suspects, plus many of the off the wall theories being floated around the internet.

      Our consensus is that the current situation stems from a combination of enabling legislation (some well intentioned, others not so much), accounting practices, government regulation and deregulation, and fundamentally unchecked greed at many levels. However, the situation is way too complex to put the blame on a single person, institution or idea. Therefore, feel free to pick and choose from any of the following suggestions, or make up your own theory.
      Some generic “blame game” links that give a nice overview of the problem:
      • http://www.businessweek.com/investor...017_950382.htm
      • http://www.portfolio.com/news-market...l-Streets-Boom - An article by Michael Lewis, author of Liar’s Poker. I strongly recommend this one.

      The Housing Bubble
      Everyone likes to blame the housing bubble for the current crisis. House prices went up. People bought houses they couldn’t afford, or invested in two, three or four houses as “investments” with no money down. Between the unqualified borrowers, the countless “get rich quick” TV shows on house flipping, the relentless pressure of mortgage originators to create crazy products, the overwhelming pressure of iBanks to package the products, and the insatiable demand of poorly educated customers looking for high returns, you have a classic bubble.

      All bubbles start with the premise that “The price of X can only go up.” The game becomes a combination of “chase the price” and “don’t be the last one in (or out)”. Whether you are talking tulips, shares of Google, or houses, sanity eventually rears its ugly head and infinitely upward prices stop and then rapidly collapse.

      Final Analysis
      There’s no doubt that the current housing bubble is a major proximate factor. The sheer volume of housing related products that failed and the leverage on those investments (via CDS) were more than enough to erode the capital reserves of most of the players.
      Links
      1. Open a web browser
      2. Type in “housing crisis”
      3. Read any 10 random links

      JP Morgan
      JP Morgan was Lehman’s primary lender and clearing agent for daily functions. That basically means that most of Lehman’s positions were somehow tied to JP Morgan. On a daily basis, Lehman used JP Morgan as a counter party in many different areas including overnight repo and short term loans.

      In the days immediately before the bankruptcy (September 12th), JP Morgan froze as much as $17 billion in Lehman cash and securities. This was likely the most immediate event that led to the bankruptcy filing as Lehman was unable to continue business without access to the assets and funds held by JP Morgan.

      The conspiracy gets bigger as JP Morgan received a huge influx of capital (138 billion) that same week and then immediately paid most of it through to Lehman. Several bloggers suspect that JP Morgan may have been insolvent and unable to return Lehman’s cash and assets in any case. In other words, without “freezing Lehman’s accounts”, JP Morgan could have been the bank that declared bankruptcy. The theory goes that JP Morgan got a big federal bailout and Lehman’s bankruptcy was used to cover the transaction.

      Final Analysis
      JP Morgan freezing the accounts was definitely a major proximate factor in Lehman’s bankruptcy. However, the larger conspiracy is still fairly short on facts. JP Morgan definitely has a huge CDS exposure and is thus likely tied into almost everything going wrong in the markets now.
      Links


      ACORN and Lehman
      Perhaps one of the most obscure and convoluted explanations for Lehman’s failure can be traced to the 2008 Spring TDP class and their philanthropy event. Every year, the TDP class spent one day “doing good for the community”. This particular class was asked to paint murals on the walls at a particular high school in New York. The high school was the ACORN Community High School For Social Justice in Brooklyn. This high school is a special project high school which promotes certain ideas of social justice. The TDP analysts helped the students paint murals about Music and Social Justice in several of the shared rooms.

      If you’ve kept an eye on the News, you may have seen the ACORN organization recently in several contexts. Unrelated to the current situation, ACORN is in trouble for voter registration fraud in several states. They, among other things, signed up the entire Dallas Cowboys football team to vote in Washington.

      However, with regards to the economic crisis, ACORN is often both the recipient of sweetheart gifts from banks as well as one of the primary plaintiffs in predatory lending lawsuits under the CRA. ACORN:
      • Promotes lending to unqualified borrowers.
      • Sues banks when loans to unqualified borrowers fail, claiming the loans were predatory.
      • Receives massive donations from investment banks (i.e. JP Morgan and Chase both donated hundreds of thousands of dollars to earn “good will” under CRA before their merger).

      So how does the Lehman TDP class fit in? Well, the students went along with the philanthropy suggestion, thus showing that “Lehman plays nice with ACORN”, thus theoretically earning ACORN’s good will, thus furthering the cycle of pressure to give loans to people who just can’t pay them off.

      Final Analysis
      For all the good that ACORN does, the organization is also definitely part of the problem. Giving loans to people who have no ability to pay off the loans just doesn’t make sense. It’d be better to simply provide housing for free. ACORN plays both side of the game by demanding loans to poorly qualified borrowers and then suing the banks when the inevitable foreclosures occur.

      However, I don’t think the TDP class had anything to do with the issue other than to show that Lehman’s management definitely knows ACORN and tries to buy them off (like all the other investment banks).
      Links
      http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Associa...r_Registration – Note the last few sections especially.

      The Democrats (Generally)
      This category includes all blame that isn’t specifically attached to a specific person. In essence, the Democrats are responsible for much of the legislation which enabled the current crisis, including the CRA, GLB, May Day and others. The concept that “everyone should own a house” is typically considered a Democrat idea and anti-Democrats blame the notion for a big part of the crisis. In addition, Democrats routinely blocked further regulation of Fannie and Freddie, as this would stop loans to lower income people (a key Democratic voter base).

      The Democrats have received more campaign money from Wall Street than the Republicans in recent years. People also point to this as a sign of “collusion and/or corruption”.
      Finally, the Democrats killed a 2005 Republican sponsored bill to radically reform Freddie and Fannie and regulate the MBS and CDO industries. This bill would have probably pre-empted the crisis by forcing Bear, Lehman and the other players to start unwinding their positions slowly rather than all at once in a massive collapse.

      Final Analysis
      Plenty of blame for both Republicans and Democrats. I personally am happier blaming our legislative structure in general.
      Links
      • http://newsbusters.org/blogs/noel-sh...bush-or-mccain
      • http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1RZVw...d=event_597487 - Anti-democrat advertisement, but shows the main complaints.
      • Bill Clinton blaming the Democratic party - http://newsbusters.org/blogs/noel-sh...clinton-agrees
      • Alec Baldwin going against character - http://newsbusters.org/blogs/noel-sh...s-barney-frank
      • http://www.ibdeditorials.com/IBDArti...06632135350949

      The Republicans (Generally)
      The easiest way to blame the Republicans is that they were in office (President at least) when things went bad. Beyond that, the anti-Republicans claim that the Republicans are the party of greed and encourage Wall Street excess. In addition, Gramm-Leach-Bliley was sponsored by Republicans.

      Final Analysis
      Plenty of blame for both Republicans and Democrats. I personally am happier blaming our legislative structure in general.
      Links
      Specific links are hardly necessary here, as every TV commercial, news segment, celebrity interview and home improvement show blames Bush (and the Republicans) for everything.

      Barack Obama
      Obama has ties to ACORN (albeit controversial ties of indeterminate strength) and was also a community organizer pushing CRA and loans to under qualified borrowers. He also voted against the 2005 act to regulate Freddie and Fannie. Finally, Obama has received a ton of money from Wall Street, including Freddie and Fannie, and had a high ranking member of Fannie Mae on his VP selection committee.

      Another item of note is that many people are keeping their cash out of the market for fear of the changes in capital gains taxes proposed by President-elect Obama. This one is a little more subtle but seems to be having a definite effect on recovery.

      Final Analysis
      I think Obama gets splashed with the generic “anti-Democrat” blame but hasn’t done anything major to contribute to the crisis. Of course, that’s just another way of saying he hasn’t been in a position where he could make a major impact. 
      Links
      • http://www.nytimes.com/2008/09/20/us...s/20adbox.html

      John McCain
      McCain takes heat for being part of the administration for 25+ years and being a proponent of de-regulation. The first point is both generic anti-Republican blame as well as involvement in previous financial crisis (e.g. Keating scandal). With regards to the second part, some people blame the de-regulation of the 80’s (strongly supported by McCain). On the other hand, the de-regulation also helped bring about the boom years of the 90’s, so that could be a wash.

      Final Analysis
      McCain has been involved in congress too much to not deserve at least some of the generic congress blame. However, he did try to push the Fannie/Freddie regulation in 2005. If you are strongly inclined to blame Republicans, then McCain is an easy, if fairly unsubstatial, target.
      Links

      Just as with blaming Bush, most media has plenty of “blame McCain” attacks.

      The Clintons
      Bill Clinton can take a lot of specific blame because many of the key pieces of legislation and regulation changes occurred under his watch. He helped break down Glass-Steagall by signing Gramm-Leach-Bliley. He also specifically requested the CRA portion of GLBA and threatened to veto any act that reduced minority loan spending. Hillary gets a lot of blame for supporting all the legislation and changes that occurred after Bill left office and also blocking the 2005 Republican bill to regulate Freddie and Fannie. She also accepted a boat load of PAC money from Freddie and Fannie to stop the legislation being pushed by Republicans.

      Final Analysis
      If the buck stops at the White House, then Bill Clinton surely gets the blame for both the enabling legislation and the regulatory changes that occurred from 92-00 just as much as George Bush gets the blame for 00-08. Similarly, Hillary should get as much blame as McCain for being part of the congress that failed to adequately regulate Fannie and Freddie or take any proactive steps towards Wall Street. She gets additional blame for accepting money from Freddie and Fannie.
      Links
      • http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...d=aSKSoiNbnQY0

      Kosher Laws
      This one is silly, but Time magazine interviewed a Jewish banker who said that the current crisis was because people went away from the Kosher lending laws. Without getting all Talmudic, the argument is basically just “more regulation” and “less complexity.”

      Final Analysis
      The underlying ideas are good, but the link to Judaic financial rules is just a gimmick to draw people into the article. Besides, if we accept that Wall Street is run by Jews, then we have to get out our Official Conspiracy Kit® including the tin foil hats and this story is already long and convoluted enough.
      Links
      • http://www.time.com/time/business/ar...-yahoo-biztech

      AC/DC
      Love them or hate them, AC/DC’s biggest albums have definitely coincided with major negative market events:
      • Highway to Hell (1973) – Oil crisis
      • Back in Black (1980) – UK has 20% unemployment and rampant inflation.
      • The Razor’s Edge (1990) – UK recession
      • Black Ice (2008) – Launched August 18, a month before the Lehman meltdown.
      What more can you expect from two POMs, two Scotts and an Aussie?

      Final Analysis
      Correlation does not equal causation. Besides, AC/DC hardly have the power to shape world events, unlike Black Sabbath, Motorhead or other real Metal bands.
      "The issue is there are still many people out there that use religion as a crutch for bigotry and hate. Like Ben."
      Ben Kenobi: "That means I'm doing something right. "

      Comment


      • #18
        I knew it was AC/DC's fault!
        Apolyton's Grim Reaper 2008, 2010 & 2011
        RIP lest we forget... SG (2) and LaFayette -- Civ2 Succession Games Brothers-in-Arms

        Comment


        • #19
          I don't think AC/DC ever tried to be a metal band. They're pretty clearly a straight-ahead pub rock band.

          Comment


          • #20
            They're widely considered to be at least partly heavy metal.

            Eg, their wiki:
            Genre(s) Hard rock, heavy metal, blues-rock, rock and roll
            "The issue is there are still many people out there that use religion as a crutch for bigotry and hate. Like Ben."
            Ben Kenobi: "That means I'm doing something right. "

            Comment


            • #21
              Although the band members are considered pioneers of heavy metal,[1][2] they have always classified their music as "Rock n' roll".

              Comment


              • #22
                Thanks for proving the point.
                "The issue is there are still many people out there that use religion as a crutch for bigotry and hate. Like Ben."
                Ben Kenobi: "That means I'm doing something right. "

                Comment


                • #23
                  Originally posted by Naked Gents Rut
                  I don't think AC/DC ever tried to be a metal band.

                  Comment


                  • #24
                    I never disputed that.
                    "The issue is there are still many people out there that use religion as a crutch for bigotry and hate. Like Ben."
                    Ben Kenobi: "That means I'm doing something right. "

                    Comment


                    • #25
                      As described above, there are arguments about whether these and other early bands truly qualify as "heavy metal" or simply as "hard rock." Those closer to the music's blues roots or placing greater emphasis on melody are now commonly ascribed the latter label. AC/DC, which debuted with High Voltage in 1975, is a prime example. The 1983 Rolling Stone encyclopedia entry begins, "Australian heavy-metal band AC/DC..."[77] Rock historian Clinton Walker writes, "Calling AC/DC a heavy metal band in the seventies was as inaccurate as it is today.... [They] were a rock'n'roll band that just happened to be heavy enough for metal."[78] The issue is not only one of shifting definitions, but also a persistent distinction between musical style and audience identification: Ian Christe describes how the band "became the stepping-stone that led huge numbers of hard rock fans into heavy metal perdition."

                      Comment


                      • #26
                        hard rock for sure, but heavy enough to be put in my heavy metal music folder. think most will agree. Like the wikiquote says, lots of metal fans got into heavy metal thanks to AC/DC, and so did I.
                        "An archaeologist is the best husband a women can have; the older she gets, the more interested he is in her." - Agatha Christie
                        "Non mortem timemus, sed cogitationem mortis." - Seneca

                        Comment


                        • #27
                          • In 2004, the SEC provides Lehman and other investment banks with an exemption to quadruple their leverage ratios. This means Lehman can move from 10 times leverage up to as much as 40 times in some cases. In other words, for every hundred dollars that Lehman bets, they are controlling as much as 4000 dollars. When the investment goes bad, Lehman is out 4K instead of just 100.
                          This has to be a huge part of causing the problems. That kind of leverage just can't be a good thing over the long term. Why on Earth would the SEC ever allow it? It's practically a repeat of the "buying on margin" which caused the 1929 crash.
                          Try http://wordforge.net/index.php for discussion and debate.

                          Comment


                          • #28
                            WTF? If this is for dummies it needs a lot less words and more colorful charts and graphs.
                            I'm consitently stupid- Japher
                            I think that opinion in the United States is decidedly different from the rest of the world because we have a free press -- by free, I mean a virgorously presented right wing point of view on the air and available to all.- Ned

                            Comment


                            • #29
                              My insufficient google-fu suggest that the article is not in circulation....

                              should it?

                              Comment


                              • #30
                                Originally posted by MORON
                                My insufficient google-fu suggest that the article is not in circulation....

                                should it?
                                It's not confidential but it's part of a rather extensive writeup a team of guys did at work (we do a lot of business with financial services companies).

                                It's only been "published" by a company-wide email and then who it gets forwarded to that may find it interesting.
                                "The issue is there are still many people out there that use religion as a crutch for bigotry and hate. Like Ben."
                                Ben Kenobi: "That means I'm doing something right. "

                                Comment

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