Why US Dollars rised over teh last day?

[KrazyHorse]

If I wasn't busy I would draw him eight demand curves: US and EU demand for oil in USD before change in exchange rates, then the same for demand in oil in EUR, then all of these after exchange rates change.

But I can't be bothered to explain to somebody why changing variables doesn't change the situation.

[Garth Vader]

Originally posted by Naked Gents Rut
Are there any jobs in the defense industry in the Great White North? Someone wants me to explore my options in Canada and I'm starting to look more kindly on the idea now that Democrats are going to get the chance to bring all their wet dreams to life here in the States.

Canada is already better than even the wettest of Democrat dreams.

[One_more_turn]

Too much dumb money piled into Euro, Pound, A$, C$, and many other emerging market currencies. When things turned out that other countries' economies and banks are in even worse shape than ours, the massacre began.

Emerging markets are suffering a catastrophic liquidity crisis as we speak, and European banks are on hook for several trillion dollars in potentially bad loans. US banks' exposure to those countries is less than that of Spain!

Furthermore, our enemies Iran and Venezuela have moved huge chunks of their stash into Euro. Now with crashing oil and Euro, they will be doubly punished.

During crude oil's mania early in this year, Lehman Brothers and AIG were two principle forces in driving the prices higher. AIG alone had a $150 billion large commodity index fund as of July. Their shameless transgression against American consumers and the government could be part of the reason for their wipeouts.

The collapse of Lehman Brothers directly caused a massive confidence crisis among financial institutions. The resulting spike in LIBOR rate rattled European financial system to its core. Whereas US banks mostly derive their sources of funds from deposits, European banks rely heavily on capital markets for short term liquidity needs, borrowing based on LIBOR rates. With European banks in shambles, the crisis immediately spread to emerging markets, which in turn ravaged all the dumb money that piled into commodities and emerging market equities.

[KrazyHorse]

Originally posted by One_more_turn
Too much dumb money piled into Euro, Pound, A$, C$, and many other emerging market currencies. When things turned out that other countries' economies and banks are in even worse shape than ours, the massacre began.

Wow. You could not be more wrong. Most other coutries' banks are in better shape than are those in the US. Some of the Euro countries' are worse off. Canadian and Australian banks are not even close to insolvent, are liquid, and are considered among the soundest in the world.

[KrazyHorse]

During crude oil's mania early in this year, Lehman Brothers and AIG were two principle forces in driving the prices higher.

No, people using more oil was the principle force driving prices higher.

[One_more_turn]

Originally posted by KrazyHorse

During crude oil's mania early in this year, Lehman Brothers and AIG were two principle forces in driving the prices higher.

No, people using more oil was the principle force driving prices higher.

Have you noticed that commodities began its crash on the day the short ban for financial stocks was enacted in early July? This rule basically blew up the "short financials, long commodities" trade. If a short ban of financial stocks can bring down the oil price, it just meanw that the whole supply/demand issue espoused by the media was utter crap.

[One_more_turn]

Originally posted by KrazyHorse


Wow. You could not be more wrong. Most other coutries' banks are in better shape than are those in the US. Some of the Euro countries' are worse off. Canadian and Australian banks are not even close to insolvent, are liquid, and are considered among the soundest in the world.

Maybe Canadian banks are ok. But Macquarie Bank of Australia is definitely in deep ****. It's only a matter of time before it needs to be bailed out.

Speaking of US banks, many of them are actually in very great shape. Wells Fargo, JP Morgan Chase, US Bankcorp, Bank of America, Bank of New York, State Street Bank are all doing fine.

But European banks are in total shambles. Except for HSBC, almost every big bank is already insolvent; the list begins with Barclay and ends at UBS. Why do you think Gordon Brown first came up with the idea of capital injection? Because UK banks are in the worst shape of all! Do you see all the headlines about Korea, Ukraine, Hungary crying for bailouts? European banks have the biggest exposure in those places.

It seems the only places to escape the carnage so far are China and Japan.

[One_more_turn]

I think the rise in US$ and Treasury is a very bad sign for world economy because it signals DEFLATION!

I would rather have inflation at this point.

[KrazyHorse]

Originally posted by One_more_turn


Have you noticed that commodities began its crash on the day the short ban for financial stocks was enacted in early July? This rule basically blew up the "short financials, long commodities" trade. If a short ban of financial stocks can bring down the oil price, it just meanw that the whole supply/demand issue espoused by the media was utter crap.

You are an utterly silly person. SRSLY.

[KrazyHorse]

Originally posted by One_more_turn


Maybe Canadian banks are ok. But Macquarie Bank of Australia is definitely in deep ****. It's only a matter of time before it needs to be bailed out.

One bank in Australia is in trouble? So ****ing what? Australian banks are NOT in systemic trouble.

CAD and AUD are mainly driven by commodity prices, and have responded to a change in those prices, due to a dramatically reduced global growth outlook.

Anybody who has ever seriously thought about the fx market knows this.

[Imran Siddiqui]

Originally posted by KrazyHorse
You are an utterly silly person. SRSLY.

It's the attempt blame the ev1l corporations! (TM) instead of realizing a lot of the blame falls on the people themselves for buying all sorts of gas guzzling monstrosities (well that and China & India rapidly growing).

[KrazyHorse]

Yeah, it's the evil conspiracy of them "Wall Street Fat Cats" to make the hardworking Mercun consumer pay more for gas. And if we have to "prove" it by correlating a ban on naked shorting which was in effect for 2 weeks in late July to early Aug with the beginning of a drop in oil which has lasted 3 months then we will do it. And if somebody tells us that maybe both were related to the fact that the economy was starting to go into the ****ter then they must be in league with Goldman Sachs. Or wait. Why were the financials shorting their own stocks again? I'm not sure about this any more. Either way, RON PAUL 08

[KrazyHorse]

Somehow, though, supply kept matching demand the whole time oil was over 100$/bbl. Without there being a runup in inventories from hoarding...which would be the only reasonable way to actually alter the real price of crude.

[One_more_turn]

Originally posted by KrazyHorse


You are an utterly silly person. SRSLY.

It seems you are seriously agitated by my arguments.

Well, I'm not interested in arguing with some poor sods who is in the process of being wiped out.

Since so many retail suckers lost their shirts going short against Dollar and long the other crap, I must assume that you are one among them.

Have a nice day!

[Imran Siddiqui]

Agitated?

That was the weakest "I can't respond to your arguments, so I'm going to go now".