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Originally posted by Zkribbler
(b) blow something up and blame it on bin Ladin.
(b) blow something up and blame it on bin Ladin.
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Like a major city that would turn the state red when eliminated.
I drank beer. I like beer. I still like beer. ... Do you like beer Senator?
- Justice Brett Kavanaugh -
It seems bound to tighten up. These presidential races tend to. I agree that even considering this, McCain seems to be in a hole.Originally posted by Rufus T. Firefly
I'm unaware of any campaign where the tide turned this dramatically, this late. Am I forgetting something?
But who knows. The stock market could rally, the economy could become less intense of an issue, the price of gasoline could go down dramatically, something dramatic could happen that highlights John's McCain's military bona fides, a scandal could happen, Obama could make a big mistake, etc.I came upon a barroom full of bad Salon pictures in which men with hats on the backs of their heads were wolfing food from a counter. It was the institution of the "free lunch" I had struck. You paid for a drink and got as much as you wanted to eat. For something less than a rupee a day a man can feed himself sumptuously in San Francisco, even though he be a bankrupt. Remember this if ever you are stranded in these parts. ~ Rudyard Kipling, 1891Comment
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Basically the election is, barring anything major, lost for McCain. If I was him, I'd move strongly to the center, basically tell off the right wing for calling Obama names (counting on people to ignore his negative ads and believing these names are worse than that), slap down Palin for the Ayers link and basically rescue his name a bit so he can continue to be one of, if not THE, most popular Senators.“I give you a new commandment, that you love one another. Just as I have loved you, you also should love one another. By this everyone will know that you are my disciples, if you have love for one another.”
- John 13:34-35 (NRSV)Comment
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Interesting analogy, but not quite a swing; 1980 was really one long, steady march of voters away from carter and toward Reagan, starting with the botched rescue mission and ending on election day; Reagan wasn't actually losing support 4 weeks before the election -- at least, not as I recall, anyway.Originally posted by Boris Godunov
Perhaps 1980. Carter and Reagan were essentially tied until their only debate. But it was held a week before the election, and Reagan actually won it."I have as much authority as the pope. I just don't have as many people who believe it." — George CarlinComment
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Truman-Dewey, perhaps?"Beware of the man who works hard to learn something, learns it, and finds himself no wiser than before. He is full of murderous resentment of people who are ignorant without having come by their ignorance the hard way. "
-BokononComment
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I believe it was a dead heat until the week before the election, with Carter sometimes enjoying a slight advantage. Reagan made a lot of gaffes on the campaign trail that hurt him. Carter was hurt by the ecomonic situation, the Iran hostage crisis, the bruising primary with Kennedy, etc. before it got to the last few months, so it was pretty much a stasis. The debate was the breakout moment for Reagan. It allowed him to show Americans that he wasn't really a complete blithering idiot, which gave them the comfort level they needed to jump from Carter's ship.Originally posted by Rufus T. Firefly
Interesting analogy, but not quite a swing; 1980 was really one long, steady march of voters away from carter and toward Reagan, starting with the botched rescue mission and ending on election day; Reagan wasn't actually losing support 4 weeks before the election -- at least, not as I recall, anyway.Tutto nel mondo è burlaComment
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In my time following and participating in campaigns, I have learned not to discount what seems unlikely. It looks bad, but the hole was dug in a mere 2 weeks and can be undone in similar time.Originally posted by Imran Siddiqui
Basically the election is, barring anything major, lost for McCain.I came upon a barroom full of bad Salon pictures in which men with hats on the backs of their heads were wolfing food from a counter. It was the institution of the "free lunch" I had struck. You paid for a drink and got as much as you wanted to eat. For something less than a rupee a day a man can feed himself sumptuously in San Francisco, even though he be a bankrupt. Remember this if ever you are stranded in these parts. ~ Rudyard Kipling, 1891Comment
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dp"Beware of the man who works hard to learn something, learns it, and finds himself no wiser than before. He is full of murderous resentment of people who are ignorant without having come by their ignorance the hard way. "
-BokononComment
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Especially with electronic voting!Originally posted by DanS
In my time following and participating in campaigns, I have learned not to discount what seems unlikely. It looks bad, but the hole was dug in a mere 2 weeks and can be undone in similar time.
JMJon Miller-
I AM.CANADIAN
GENERATION 35: The first time you see this, copy it into your sig on any forum and add 1 to the generation. Social experiment.Comment
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Even without electronic voting. F.e., I worked for a congressional campaign that closed a 30 point gap in a little over 3 weeks. Ultimately, we lost by a couple hundred votes.I came upon a barroom full of bad Salon pictures in which men with hats on the backs of their heads were wolfing food from a counter. It was the institution of the "free lunch" I had struck. You paid for a drink and got as much as you wanted to eat. For something less than a rupee a day a man can feed himself sumptuously in San Francisco, even though he be a bankrupt. Remember this if ever you are stranded in these parts. ~ Rudyard Kipling, 1891Comment
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I'd start identity-mongering, the Republicans can't win on real issues. Why not bring up Obama's European trip and diss him for it some more?Comment
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Was your opponent the incumbent?
JMJon Miller-
I AM.CANADIAN
GENERATION 35: The first time you see this, copy it into your sig on any forum and add 1 to the generation. Social experiment.Comment
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You don't get the same kind of polling density with Congressional campaigns. Up until a couple years ago, the media wasn't interested in independent polling, so you really only had your internals and the internals from the other guy that are leaked. And obviously, changing minds in an electorate that's 435 times smaller is a bit easier..."Beware of the man who works hard to learn something, learns it, and finds himself no wiser than before. He is full of murderous resentment of people who are ignorant without having come by their ignorance the hard way. "
-BokononComment
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Well, he could still get my vote by dumping Palin, replacing her with Bloomberg, then pledging to resign the day after inauguration. Short of that..."The purpose of studying economics is not to acquire a set of ready-made answers to economic questions, but to learn how to avoid being deceived by economists."
-Joan RobinsonComment
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I disagree with the notion that the hole was dug in a "mere 2 weeks." Barring McCain's Palin/Convention bounce, he has never enjoyed a lead in the polls and had been substantially behind at one point. The economic crisis coincided with a natural ebbing of McCain's convention bounce, which is giving the artificial impression that his slide is entirely attributable to it. Based on the pre-convention direction of the race, I believe he'd still be behind at this point, although perhaps not as dramatically.Originally posted by DanS
In my time following and participating in campaigns, I have learned not to discount what seems unlikely. It looks bad, but the hole was dug in a mere 2 weeks and can be undone in similar time.
And congressional races can be much more volatile than a presidential race. By now, the presidential candidates have been introduced and the number of undecideds is pretty low. In contrast, congressional races have a lot more undecideds that break late, and due to less media exposure, voters don't become as familiar with the candidates until quite close to election day.Tutto nel mondo è burlaComment
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