Tweet
Well, in that case it should be fine to wait until next summer right?
JM
JM
-
Jon Miller-
I AM.CANADIAN
GENERATION 35: The first time you see this, copy it into your sig on any forum and add 1 to the generation. Social experiment. -
I hear ya, but do you want to keep feeding the insatiable maw of the financial industry? At some point, market discipline must hold sway.Originally posted by Colon™
Compare the crisis to a firestorm. What the present "overmanagement" has been amounting to is that they dose the flames in one corner, only to see it expand elsewhere. Paulson's plan may hardly have been perfect but it was an attempt to put out the fire in a systematic approach. As it stands now the firestorm needs to get a low worse before such an approach will be adopted, which implies the costs will be much higher as well.
I don't think you could accuse the US banking system of acting in any way like the Japanese banking system. We're closing banks about every day.$700 billion or 5% of GDP, assuming this would have been the ultimate net costs (which was improbable), is actually fairly cheap compared to the costs of resolving bank crises elsewhere in the past. Japan spend a quarter of its GDP to get things back in order, exactly because it put off action for so long.I came upon a barroom full of bad Salon pictures in which men with hats on the backs of their heads were wolfing food from a counter. It was the institution of the "free lunch" I had struck. You paid for a drink and got as much as you wanted to eat. For something less than a rupee a day a man can feed himself sumptuously in San Francisco, even though he be a bankrupt. Remember this if ever you are stranded in these parts. ~ Rudyard Kipling, 1891Comment
-
It is after today...off its 14,000 point high from a year ago.
quote:
After all, the stock market isn't even down 30% from its highsComment
-
Check your math. That's not a 30% reduction.I came upon a barroom full of bad Salon pictures in which men with hats on the backs of their heads were wolfing food from a counter. It was the institution of the "free lunch" I had struck. You paid for a drink and got as much as you wanted to eat. For something less than a rupee a day a man can feed himself sumptuously in San Francisco, even though he be a bankrupt. Remember this if ever you are stranded in these parts. ~ Rudyard Kipling, 1891Comment
-
30% of 14,000 is 4200, so it would be 9800 at this point. FYI.
<Reverend> IRC is just multiplayer notepad.
I like your SNOOPY POSTER! - While you Wait quote.Comment
-
It was about 10 months since large institutions were failing that they started bailouts.Originally posted by Jon Miller
What was long for Japan? 5 days? 7 days? 40 days?
I am interested.
JMI drank beer. I like beer. I still like beer. ... Do you like beer Senator?
- Justice Brett KavanaughComment
-
Give me until 10 minutes after tomorrow's opening bell.Originally posted by snoopy369
30% of 14,000 is 4200, so it would be 9800 at this point. FYI.
Comment
-
Why is it so assured that the markets will open lower?I came upon a barroom full of bad Salon pictures in which men with hats on the backs of their heads were wolfing food from a counter. It was the institution of the "free lunch" I had struck. You paid for a drink and got as much as you wanted to eat. For something less than a rupee a day a man can feed himself sumptuously in San Francisco, even though he be a bankrupt. Remember this if ever you are stranded in these parts. ~ Rudyard Kipling, 1891Comment
-
Markets often open up the next day on profit-taking, don't forget.<Reverend> IRC is just multiplayer notepad.
I like your SNOOPY POSTER! - While you Wait quote.Comment
-
For context, the markets declined 47% from peak-to-trough September 2000 to October 2002.I came upon a barroom full of bad Salon pictures in which men with hats on the backs of their heads were wolfing food from a counter. It was the institution of the "free lunch" I had struck. You paid for a drink and got as much as you wanted to eat. For something less than a rupee a day a man can feed himself sumptuously in San Francisco, even though he be a bankrupt. Remember this if ever you are stranded in these parts. ~ Rudyard Kipling, 1891Comment
-
The Japanese bubble burst in 1990 and the Japanese gov't seriously got down to fixing the banking system in 1999. The US housing bubble burst in 2005-06. However, the current crisis is developing much, much faster (due to mark to market accounting and refusal to prop up insolvent firms). It wasn't until 1997 Japan got hit by a credit crunch, a stage in which the US has been for a year already.Originally posted by Jon Miller
Well, in that case it should be fine to wait until next summer right?
JMDISCLAIMER: the author of the above written texts does not warrant or assume any legal liability or responsibility for any offence and insult; disrespect, arrogance and related forms of demeaning behaviour; discrimination based on race, gender, age, income class, body mass, living area, political voting-record, football fan-ship and musical preference; insensitivity towards material, emotional or spiritual distress; and attempted emotional or financial black-mailing, skirt-chasing or death-threats perceived by the reader of the said written texts.Comment
-
According to Case/Shiller, the peak to the real estate market was July 2006. So we're a little over 2 years into it.I came upon a barroom full of bad Salon pictures in which men with hats on the backs of their heads were wolfing food from a counter. It was the institution of the "free lunch" I had struck. You paid for a drink and got as much as you wanted to eat. For something less than a rupee a day a man can feed himself sumptuously in San Francisco, even though he be a bankrupt. Remember this if ever you are stranded in these parts. ~ Rudyard Kipling, 1891Comment
-
It's a rotten time to start getting principled on moral hazard. It's not worth taking everything else down with it. I'm afraid w'll have to swallow more regulation and get down to setting devices for symmetric policy responses and maybe also ponder whether it's possible to allow controlled fires (clearing up dead wood from time to time).Originally posted by DanS
I hear ya, but do you want to keep feeding the insatiable maw of the financial industry? At some point, market discipline must hold sway.
The US does seem to be quite intent on propping up the housing market. Regardless, has there been a single banking crisis that got resolved without gov't intervention or some other sort of centralised effort? Maybe before the days of JP Morgan (but then again, depressions were recurrent events during the 19th century). You still seem to assume the US is immune to repeats of Argentina and the like.I don't think you could accuse the US banking system of acting in any way like the Japanese banking system. We're closing banks about every day.DISCLAIMER: the author of the above written texts does not warrant or assume any legal liability or responsibility for any offence and insult; disrespect, arrogance and related forms of demeaning behaviour; discrimination based on race, gender, age, income class, body mass, living area, political voting-record, football fan-ship and musical preference; insensitivity towards material, emotional or spiritual distress; and attempted emotional or financial black-mailing, skirt-chasing or death-threats perceived by the reader of the said written texts.Comment
-
The problem is that no time is a good time -- admittedly, this is not a good time. The American people are getting the shakedown by Wall Street. At some point, we've got to stand up to them. The Fed is useless in this regard. Economists have no backbone, as Bernanke is showing amply well. I've been happy with Paulson's backbone. He has a knack for punishment, which is sorely needed.
But to be clear, some business is getting done with the help of the FDIC, the Fed, and Treasury. JP Morgan was able to raise $11.5 billion in cash even in this environment. The money market is not functioning right now -- that's scary, 'tis true. I laughed when Yahoo! Finance listed the yield on 3-month Treasuries as "N/A."
Anyway, there's a lot of cash on the sidelines waiting for good deals. Why are we so scared of these people finding good deals? I've been waiting for over a decade to put my cash to work at reasonable prices.Last edited by DanS; September 29, 2008, 21:09.I came upon a barroom full of bad Salon pictures in which men with hats on the backs of their heads were wolfing food from a counter. It was the institution of the "free lunch" I had struck. You paid for a drink and got as much as you wanted to eat. For something less than a rupee a day a man can feed himself sumptuously in San Francisco, even though he be a bankrupt. Remember this if ever you are stranded in these parts. ~ Rudyard Kipling, 1891Comment
-
You know, this might be the best argument against Social Security privatization. With everybody's retirement relying on these large 401(k)s, all politicians will want to throw public money at Wall Street when it catches a cold.I came upon a barroom full of bad Salon pictures in which men with hats on the backs of their heads were wolfing food from a counter. It was the institution of the "free lunch" I had struck. You paid for a drink and got as much as you wanted to eat. For something less than a rupee a day a man can feed himself sumptuously in San Francisco, even though he be a bankrupt. Remember this if ever you are stranded in these parts. ~ Rudyard Kipling, 1891Comment
Comment