Biden = RIAA?

[Aeson]

Why don't you worry about Palin then? It's pretty clear she's "Patriot Act" type through and through, and if you worry Biden will pull Obama's strings, why not the other way too? (That's after the "if" of McCain breaking with the platform he gets elected on.) Plus you have the concerns of McCain's health.

At best you have 2 unknowns (McCain and Obama, though I don't agree they are unknowns) and 2 likely "Patriot Act" types who could assert themselves one way or the other.

Seems like a complete wash to me.

[Imran Siddiqui]

[q=Aeson] if you worry Biden will pull Obama's strings, why not the other way too[/q]

[q=snoopy369]I have no idea about Obama except that I'd worry Biden = Cheney in the sense that Obama might just be the front man for Biden and his wing of the Democrats[/q]

He's basically saying that he thinks McCain is too strong to have a VP pull his strings. After all, Bush was also fairly young and inexperienced when he ran.

[snoopy369]

This is exactly the case. Biden I see as more likely to have power while as VP, while Palin I see as either a "get me over" VP (get him elected, then nothing), or "VP in training".

Who thinks LBJ had nothing to do with things from 1961-1963, after all... ?

[Imran Siddiqui]

And after all, not like Dan Quayle had much sway over George H.W. Bush. Bush 41 just wanted a young, charismatic Republican up-and-comer to get him over the hump. Unfortunately Quayle also turned out to have Biden disease.

[Aeson]

Whether Obama or McCain will give their VP more sway is really just guessing. Have fun with that...

McCain is statistically more likely to end up having his VP as pres though. It's kinda silly to think Biden will necessarily have more input than Palin in that light.

[Imran Siddiqui]

Well of course its guessing... I thought that was completely obvious.

And IIRC, the markets for these things have McCain with a 68% chance of surviving 2 terms.

[snoopy369]

Does that stat presume he SERVES two terms, though? I'd think the chances of him being elected a second time are lowish (<68%).

[Imran Siddiqui]

Yes, it presumes that he'd win the second term.

Basically it gives him about a 68% chance (or thereabouts) to survive the next 8 years.

[Ramo]

McCain was one of the few to vote against the original Patriot Act.

No. He certainly wasn't. Where did you get that idea?

Biden is pretty anti-civil liberties, but he's still better than virtually every Republican (including McCain). See the Military Commissions Act, for example, where habeas corpus was gutted: Biden and Obama against, McCain for. Hell, on the FISA Amendment, Biden was to the left of Obama.

[Ramo]

Point being: if you dislike the Republicans because of their anti-privacy, playing loose with the constitution attitudes, Biden is not going to be any better - and McCain may well be.

I'm not a fan of the Clinton Admin's record wrt civil liberties, but it's lunacy to equate it with the Bush Admin in this regard.

[Ramo]

2. Biden is on the side of republicans that I despise (the Patriot Act Republicans).

What other side is there? This is a serious question. You have a few Ron Paul libertarians and New England moderates, but these guys are pretty marginal within the party.

If you take a look, Biden has a much stronger record on civil liberties than McCain.

[Aeson]

Originally posted by Imran Siddiqui
And IIRC, the markets for these things have McCain with a 68% chance of surviving 2 terms.

Thanks for pointing that out.

[Aeson]

Originally posted by snoopy369
Does that stat presume he SERVES two terms, though? I'd think the chances of him being elected a second time are lowish (<68%).

Why would you vote for someone you don't think has what it takes to do a good enough job to get re-elected? Even Bush got re-elected. The bar isn't high...

[snoopy369]

Umm, I think I said no such thing.

I said I think the chances of McCain getting re-elected were <68%. I think there's only a 50% chance of him getting elected, after all, and I think the second election would not necessarily be that much higher (even after a good job) in this political climate; heck, he might piss off the republicans enough to not be renominated (and I think that would be a good thing from my perspective, because I don't like most of the mainstream republicans anyway).

[Aeson]

It's pretty clear that the wager is assuming he's in office (or perhaps whether he'll live the 8 years regardless of if he's in office or not). There's no way in hell there's a 68% chance he'll get elected at this point... let alone get elected, live through the first term, get re-elected, and live through the second term.

If he's hugging R's to get elected he'll hug R's (enough) to get re-elected. He's clearly shown where his loyalties lie, and it's not even to his own convictions sadly.