The Cold War is Back, can we Make Lemonade?

[PLATO]

[Thorn]

Ha cold war, you are hoping for too much, this gonna be a hot war soon.

[Serb]

There are two things that concern me about the current situation in the Ukraine at large and the Crimea in particular. Firstly, American and Russian forces have “fallen out of practise” in dealing with unexpected encounters. This was common enough in the Cold War, there were protocols in place, and upfront personnel were well aware of them. Besides which, everyone knew that a misstep could result in very dicey consequences at best, and no one wanted to think of the worst. Today, the forces aren’t used to operating under such strict protocols, especially, not Americans. What makes it truly harrowing is that Americans believe their own propaganda (the USA “won” the Cold War, Ronald Reagan caused the fall of the USSR, that America is the “sole superpower”, just to name the most egregious rot). That is, there’s no set doctrine in place for dealing with “hostiles in Indian country”, and first-line personnel aren’t used to dealing with such (nor are they used to keeping such in their everyday considerations). This is a recipe for a disaster. No one wants war… but many wars start through inadvertent stoking of tensions. NATO aircraft have to stay out of Russian or Ukrainian airspace, or, it could result in an inadvertent shootdown that could easily turn into something far worse (I wouldn’t believe that it’d turn into war, but it WOULD sour relations for YEARS). There is another cause that we have to take into account… diaspora Ukrainians serve in the Western forces, some of whom are fanatics who wouldn’t think twice of embroiling the West with Russia (I’ve seen “Ukrainians” up close and personal… the hate that some spew has to be seen to be believed). This is a real wild card… one that the West refuses to guard against. However, as bad as this might be, such “incidents” aren’t what worries me most.That leads us to the second reason the present crisis is such a nailbiter. The present Ukrainian junta is a lawless, corrupt, and feckless lot; they’re so bad that they make Yanukovich look utterly innocent. Had Yuliya been faced with the Maidan, she would’ve repressed it with the maximum violence and brutality, without regard for political or international fallout. The USA annoints a junta that enshrines thievery, violence, and repression as its credo. Yanukovich didn’t throw his opponents in the slam… the junta does. Yanukovich didn’t order the police to fire on the mob… the junta would have. Yanukovich wasn’t uniquely corrupt… Yatsenyuk, Turchinov, and Timoshenko all live in his neighbourhood (Yatsenyuk a mere 100 metres away), in mansions financed by the most crass sort of graft and theft. If that ain’t all, the junta has fanatics from Svoboda and the Right Sector in its “ministry”, some of whom who’re in “power ministries”. That is, we have criminals at the head of the junta, with fanatics in subordinate positions. Mind you, if things “went south” for the junta, the criminal members such as Timoshenko, Yatsenyuk, Turchinov, and Avakov would flee (they’ve socked away boodle stolen from the Ukrainian treasury abroad)… but fanatics such as Tyagnibok and Yarosh would do something unhinged if they thought that their ship was going down. They could attempt actions against the Dnepr dams or the Chernobyl containment site. We’re talking about fanatics with no human consideration whatsoever. It wouldn’t concern them that their own people would suffer. This is what should worry people. Unhinged lunatics are about and they have access to “sharps”. Alternatively, Galician fanatics in the Ukrainian forces could order unauthorised attacks on the Crimea or cause blood-soaked repressions in Russian areas. No matter which way you slice this **** sandwich, it’s not appealing, is it?We have to make it to Easter. Shall the junta last? Not only do I lack the foggiest idea, no one else knows anything, either. God do spare us… we’re in a hurtling rollercoaster car, and no one’s in control. Pass the jug… what else can we do?
http://02varvara.wordpress.com/tag/r...-armed-forces/

[Lancer]

Lancer's "Odds on what gives..."

1) A closed door agreement between West and Russia effectively giving Crimea to Russia if they stop there. See: Sudetenland- 60%

2) Russia hangs on to Crimea in a stalemate. Few sanctions are brought about, just goes on and on. 28.9%

3) Russia invades the Eastern territories and the Ukraine fights. A couple NATO nations join in (Poland,Turkey) and most of the rest of NATO follows eventually out of blithering shame. Russia pulls back from these regions and decides to leave the Crimea saying they were never there. See: The Rhineland bluff- 10%

4) Russia invades the Eastern territories and the Ukraine fights alone and gets beaten and absorbed into Russia. Nobody ever trusts the US/UK again. 1%

5) Russia gets sanctions imposed and decides to leave the Ukraine. .1%

[Serb]

Lancer's "Odds on what gives..."

1) A closed door agreement between West and Russia effectively giving Crimea to Russia if they stop there. See: Sudetenland- 60%

Don't think so. I mean, we can stop, but that won't change anything.
Ukraine is divided 50/50 to West and East. And it is about to default, they need something about 40$ bln this year just to keep floating on the surface, not to mention to overcome the crisis. Now add 16$ bln trade deficit they have. Their reserves are something about 17 bln$. 3 bln$ Russia already gave to Ukraine out of 15 bln$ we promised have disappeared somewhere as their new minister of finances claims. You think 1 bln$ from US or a couple of bln from IMF could save them? Only for delivered and consumed gas they owe us 2 bln$ already. Now add that if Ukraine signs treaty with EU, that will kill Ukrainian industry quite fast. Now add that their major trade partner is Russia (our share is 25%, iirc). If the economical ties we have with Ukraine will be cut-off in case of prolonged hostilities, that would strike us bad, but for Ukraine that will a be complete disaster. We will survive, they won't.
The clowns who call themselves the new government of Ukraine are doomed. Maidan is still there and I am sure the people of Ukraine will greatly appreciate when those corrupt nazi thugs they have brought to power will cut in half their pensions and salaries and double tariffs for water, electricity, etc., as IMF demands. Now add that Ukrainian industry is located in the Eastern parts of Ukraine. The Western Bander-log lives thanks to the subsidies from the Eastern regions, but still wants to dictate their will to the East. And the Eastern regions are mostly Russians and Orthodox in contrast with Western sorta Catholics. Now we have Westerners took power in Kiev and have openly nazis people as key ministers. If anyone thinks that people in the Eastern regions are happy about that, then he lives in some kind of parallel universe. The Westerners who are in Kiev now, can unify Ukraine only through dictatorship, terror, ideological, cultural, religious and ethnic cleansing. There is no other recipe. And nazi thugs are ready to do that. The Easterners won't give-up for sure (especially now, when Russia said very clear that it will support them, if there will be nazi crusade on the East).
So, your little adventure in Ukraine will end-up pretty badly. In a bloody and continuous civil war. Just like Bzijinsky always dreamed about. Not to mention "F*ck the EU" secondary goal. The war in Ukraine will strike EU as badly as Russia. Pretty badly for everyone, except the USA of course.
Unless the people of Ukraine wake-up really fast and throw your lackeys from their country themselves really quickly.

2) Russia hangs on to Crimea in a stalemate. Few sanctions are brought about, just goes on and on. 28.9%

Probably. Then, again, Ukrainian economy is about to collapse, life standards is about to fall below the surface (hunger is one the horizon), they have nazis in government and thousands of armed nationalists ready to fight (and I'm sure the West will help them in their "righteous struggle") + soon there will be millions of jobless people indoctrinated in a proper way by the new authorities. War is inevitable, the only question is what kind of war that will be.

3) Russia invades the Eastern territories and the Ukraine fights. A couple NATO nations join in (Poland,Turkey) and most of the rest of NATO follows eventually out of blithering shame. Russia pulls back from these regions and decides to leave the Crimea saying they were never there. See: The Rhineland bluff- 10%

Russia can wipe the floor with Turkey, Poland and Ukraine combined (in that order). Poles are crazy enough to do that, but Turkey? They are rational. We are their main trade partner. A good share of their economy is tourism and resorts and war in the region doesn't help this sector of economy. Besides they have their own problems to mess in war with Russia over what? A territory which was their vassal state centuries ago. They have already lost their war over Crimea to Russia in 18th century as well as all other wars we had with each other. As for Russia vs. the entire NATO scenario - the war would go nuclear after the first 20 minutes of fighting. Thank you very much.

4) Russia invades the Eastern territories and the Ukraine fights alone and gets beaten and absorbed into Russia. Nobody ever trusts the US/UK again. 1%

Well, I don't want to break your heart, buddy, but nobody trusts the US/UK already

5) Russia gets sanctions imposed and decides to leave the Ukraine. .1%

Yeah, right Good one

[Lancer]

It was only .1% Okay maybe a bit overstated.

[Serb]

[Lancer]

.01?

[Serb]

It's getting warm

[Sava]

and approximately zero Americans will die

Russians are stupid

[Serb]

Everyone dies, stupid.

[Sava]

not in your pathetic little war... sorry

[Serb]

What's the matter with you? The bully is afraid to fight with someone who can actually strike back?

[Sava]

Nah. Russians are going to murder their Ukrainian brothers.

We'll supply neighboring countries with all the arms they need.

It will be a meat grinder.

And for what? A port?

There is no possible victory for Russia. Only death and murder.

Good luck with that.

[Serb]

You just proved that Americans are chickens who invades, bombs and murder people only in countries that can't strike back.