Economy death watch

[notyoueither]

Originally posted by Asher
I can tell you that Unwinds are the order of the day. Mostly Credit Default Swaps.

Is that like trading junk to each other so they can say at least it's new junk?

[notyoueither]

I hope things go well for you, Plato.

[Aeson]

Originally posted by notyoueither


Is that like trading junk to each other so they can say at least it's new junk?

Something like a 45 trillion dollar game of hot potato... with an assload of potatos

[Asher]

Originally posted by notyoueither


Is that like trading junk to each other so they can say at least it's new junk?

Yes, with the catch is Unwinds are forms of terminations of CDS trades.

[Cort Haus]

Sorry to hear it, and good luck in turning it round, Plato.

[Geronimo]

Originally posted by Oerdin
Bear Stearns wasn't bailed out. The Fed basically subsidized J.P. Morgan to buy Bear Stearns for virtually nothing just to make sure a large US bank didn't go bust. The thing was the collapse of Bear Stearns was entirely the fault of bad corporate management (putting to many chips in high risk/high return mortgages) so I don't see why they should be bailed out. They should be making an example out of them to show what happens to other overly greedy corporate hogs.

Instead of bailing Bearns out the Fed should have arranged for them to be bought out by a larger less irresponsible competitor for pennies on the dollar. Such a deal would be somewhat more profitable from Bearns Point of view than collapse and yet would be a far far cry from bailing out. It would have made an example of bearns while also rewarding and stabilizing a larger and more responsible bank.

[Dinner]

Lay offs always suck Plato. Best wishes.

[DanS]

Originally posted by Asher
Yes, with the catch is Unwinds are forms of terminations of CDS trades.

Can you give me a sense of how successful they are being at closing their positions? Buffett described how it took him several years to close at reasonable prices a modest number held by Gen Re. Apparently, he was personally involved in cleaning up that mess.

[Geronimo]

Originally posted by snoopy369


The problem is that the speculative behavior is not entirely bad, as it fuels positive economic growth (particularly in an economy that has little left to grow in except speculation ... it's not like we produce much anymore)

Nonsense. There is unlimited room for new growth. There's aways exotic stuff like research, space exploitation and expensive green technologies or there is more ordinary options like channeling growth into subsidized growth areas like education and housing.

The question is how to most efficiently grow the economy, not whether there is room for real growth. If ever it appears that there is no room for additional growth then either utopia has been achieved and there are no material problems in anyone's lives or the economy is not working as it should.

(unless you believe technological innovation will eventually cease to be able to contribute new value)

[Asher]

Originally posted by DanS
Can you give me a sense of how successful they are being at closing their positions? Buffett described how it took him several years to close at reasonable prices a modest number held by Gen Re. Apparently, he was personally involved in cleaning up that mess.

That's not the insight I can have. I'm involved on the technology side, I just facilitate what they do and I can't gauge how successful a deal is. I oversaw thousands of trades today, I only looked at a handful of them to troubleshoot system issues.

[notyoueither]

Originally posted by Aeson


Something like a 45 trillion dollar game of hot potato... with an assload of potatos

Thats a lot of potatoes.

[EternalSpark]

To have a recession, if I remember correctly, you need to have a negative GDP for two quarters.

We haven't had one yet. Low growth, yes, but not a negative growth.

This'll pass. Things go up, things go down, which makes things go up again.

[Kidlicious]

Originally posted by PLATO
Today I became a victim of the mortgage collapse. I am now 2 hours into my layoff.

So much for 21 years experience in the business...

Hang in there.

[Kidlicious]

Originally posted by EternalSpark
Things go up, things go down, which makes things go up again.

Nope. When things go down peoples confidence goes down and that makes things go down more.

[Dinner]

Originally posted by EternalSpark
To have a recession, if I remember correctly, you need to have a negative GDP for two quarters.

We haven't had one yet. Low growth, yes, but not a negative growth.

Basically we're having one quarter of negative growth and most of the big names in economics including people in official positions are saying it's going to happen. The problem with DanS "wait, it is not official yet" line is that the recession has to be a half year old before he'll admit it. Yes, after six months it becomes official but by then people have been living it for half a year and they don't need the government to tell them what's happening.

http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=88346806