U.S. "undoubtedly in recession"

[SlowwHand]

Originally posted by Zkribbler
That's only about £290 per week...not a lot to live on in an industrialized country.

What does that matter to the USA? We're becoming a service industry nation. How much does it cost to live in a service oriented nation?

[Imran Siddiqui]

Well, you still have to buy food and stuff, sloww .

[Kidlicious]

Originally posted by SlowwHand



What does that matter to the USA? We're becoming a service industry nation. How much does it cost to live in a service oriented nation?

More than otherwise.

[One_more_turn]

We are experiencing depression and inflation at same time:

Assets that most Americans are holding, such as stocks, savings, and homes, are losing value.

Assets that most Americans don't have, such as commodities and foreign currencies, are going up fast.

Things should look grim during the next decade, better buy food (agriculture commodities, brand name food companies), gold, oil, railroads, tobacco (Philip Morris International), and weapons (defense stocks).

[Ogie Oglethorpe]

Whoopy de freakin doo but we're still not in a recession just yet.

AP
Economy grows by only 0.6 percent in 1st quarter of 2008
Wednesday April 30, 1:28 pm ET
By Jeannine Aversa, AP Economics Writer
Economy limps ahead at a 0.6 percent pace in first quarter, better pace than expected


WASHINGTON (AP) -- The bruised economy limped through the first quarter, growing at just a 0.6 percent pace as housing and credit problems forced people and businesses alike to hunker down.
The country's economic growth during January through March was the same as in the final three months of last year, the Commerce Department reported Wednesday. The statistic did not meet what economists consider the classic definition of a recession, which is a retraction of the economy. This means that although the economy is stuck in a rut, it is still managing to grow, even if modestly.

Many analysts were predicting that the gross domestic product (GDP) would weaken a bit more -- to a pace of just 0.5 percent -- in the first quarter. Earlier this year, some economists thought the economy would actually lurch into reverse during the opening quarter. Now, they say they believe that will likely happen during the current April-to-June period.

"The economy is weak but not collapsing," said Lynn Reaser, chief economist at Bank of America's Investment Strategies Group. "A recession can't be ruled out, although the stars are not lined up at this point to definitively say one way or the other."

Gross domestic product measures the value of all goods and services produced within the United States and is the best measure of the country's economic health. Voters are keenly worried about the country's economic problems and so are politicians -- in Congress, in the White House and on the campaign trail.

The housing situation turned more bleak in the first quarter, as record-high foreclosures dumped more unsold homes on the market, adding to builders' headaches. Builders slashed spending on housing projects by a whopping 26.7 percent, on an annualized basis, the most in 27 years. That was the big drag on the economy.

Consumers -- whose spending is vital to the country's economic health -- turned much more cautious, also restraining overall economic growth in the first quarter. Their spending rose at just a 1 percent pace. That was down from a 2.3 percent growth rate and was the slowest since the second quarter of 2001, when the United States was suffering through its last recession.

Soaring energy and food prices are walloping people's pocketbooks, leaving them with less to spend on other things. The credit crunch also has made it harder for people to finance big ticket items, such as cars and homes. And, many homeowners -- watching their homes -- often their single-biggest asset -- slump in value, also are feeling less wealthy and less inclined to spend.

Another report from the Labor Department Wednesday showed that workers' compensation -- including wages and benefits -- grew 0.7 percent in the first quarter, the slowest pace in two years. Many economists were expecting a 0.8 percent rise. The report suggests that the weak labor market is making employers a bit less generous with their compensation.

Businesses, meanwhile, cut back spending on equipment and software at a 0.7 percent pace, the most since the final quarter of 2006. And, they trimmed spending on commercial construction at a 6.2 percent pace, the most since the third quarter of 2005.

However, businesses boosted their investment in building up stocks of supplies in the first quarter, a big force adding to GDP. Exports of U.S. goods and services also helped first-quarter growth. U.S. exports are being helped by the falling value of the U.S. dollar, which makes U.S. made goods and services less expensive to foreign buyers.

Spending by the government was another factor helping out GDP in the first quarter. That spending rose at a 2 percent pace for the second quarter in a row.

To bolster the economy, the Federal Reserve is expected to lower a key interest rate by one-quarter percentage point to 2 percent later Wednesday. That would mark a more moderate-sized rate reduction after a recent string of hefty cuts. Many economists believe the Fed, which started dropping rates last September, may be nearing the end of its rate-cutting campaign because policymakers don't want to aggravate inflation. Those rate reductions, which take months to affect economic activity, can sow the seeds of inflation down the road.

An inflation measure linked to the GDP report showed that prices grew at a rate of 3.5 percent in the first quarter, down from a 3.9 percent pace in the prior quarter.

Another gauge showed that the core prices excluding food and energy rose at a rate of 2.2 percent in the first quarter. That was a lower than the 2.5 percent pace registered in the fourth quarter but still outside the Fed's comfort zone. The upper level of the Fed's inflation tolerance is 2 percent.

Gas and food prices, however, have moved higher since the start of the year, adding to inflation pressures. Gasoline prices, which have recently set new record highs, have climbed to $4 a gallon in some parts of the country.

A growing number of economists believe the economy is in a recession and is indeed contracting now.

Under one rough rule, if the economy contracts for six straight months it is considered to be in a recession. That didn't happen in the last recession -- in 2001-- though. A panel of experts at the National Bureau of Economic Research that determines when U.S. recessions begin and end uses a broader definition, taking into account income, employment and other barometers. That finding is usually made well after the fact.

During the first three months of this year, job losses neared the staggering quarter-million mark. The unemployment rate has climbed to 5.1 percent and is expected to move higher in the coming months.

Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke, earlier this month, acknowledged for the first time that a recession this year was possible.

President Bush on Tuesday said the country was dealing with "difficult times." Bush said he understood Americans' anxiety over soaring gas prices, record-high home foreclosures and other economic woes.

The government's $168 billion economic-stimulus package -- including tax rebates that started flowing to bank accounts on Monday -- should help energize the economy in the second half of this year, the Bush administration and Federal Reserve officials say. Democrats in Congress insist more relief needs to be provided, including additional unemployment benefits to cushion the pain of joblessness. The administration has resisted, saying the rebates and other stimulative efforts should be sufficient once they fully kick in.

[Aeson]

As your article states, we won't really know until after the fact.

A growing number of economists believe the economy is in a recession and is indeed contracting now.

Under one rough rule, if the economy contracts for six straight months it is considered to be in a recession. That didn't happen in the last recession -- in 2001-- though. A panel of experts at the National Bureau of Economic Research that determines when U.S. recessions begin and end uses a broader definition, taking into account income, employment and other barometers. That finding is usually made well after the fact.

[Jon Miller]

I wonder about when moving out of country will be the best bet for skilled peopled.

JM

[Ogie Oglethorpe]

Originally posted by Aeson
As your article states, we won't really know until after the fact.

Won't be defined as such until end of 3rd qtr earliest and thats if 2nd qtr numbers are negative.

[Aeson]

Originally posted by Ogie Oglethorpe
Won't be defined as such until 3rd qtr earliest and thats if 2nd qtr numbers are negative.

That rule of thumb isn't universal, as your article states.

Under one rough rule, if the economy contracts for six straight months it is considered to be in a recession. That didn't happen in the last recession -- in 2001-- though.

It's quite possible we're already in what will be referred to as a recession in hindsight.

[Ogie Oglethorpe]

How would you define recession then if not for the classic macroeconomic one of 2 or more sequential quarters of negative GDP growth?

[Aeson]

Again, from your article:

A panel of experts at the National Bureau of Economic Research that determines when U.S. recessions begin and end uses a broader definition, taking into account income, employment and other barometers. That finding is usually made well after the fact.

Me personally... I don't care if it's called a "recession" or a "mess" or a "slowdown" or whatever. Our economy isn't doing very well right now.

[Kidlicious]

I think the new way of predicting whether we are in a recession or not is good. After all, GDP growth is just a statistic.

[Colon™]

Originally posted by Ogie Oglethorpe
How would you define recession then if not for the classic macroeconomic one of 2 or more sequential quarters of negative GDP growth?

The trouble with the definition is that it doesn't consider trend growth. With a productivity growth of +-2% and a population growth of +-1% growth the US has a trend growth of +-3% (numbers are off, but not by much). If there's, say, 0% growth for a year, there's going to be plenty of hardship.
Hence, I prefer to consider a sustained drop in the employment rate as a simple indicator of recession.