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Intercity passenger rail in the US

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  • Intercity passenger rail in the US

    To recap, the US has the most heavily used freight rail system in the world. But although passenger rail (Amtrak) was very heavily used before the invention of the auto, it is no longer used much at all. We usually have good highways and airports, so there's not much need, despite some recent freeway congestion. Besides short-run commuter lines, the only halfway viable route is Washington to Boston via New York City (the Northeast Corridor).

    Really, the route that makes the most sense is Washington to New York City (225 miles). An Acela Express train runs every hour. 10,000 airline/train trips occur each day between the two cities, and the train has a ~ 55% share. Currently, the Acela Express is scheduled for 2 hours, 45 minutes, but there is a new service that only stops in Philadelphia and totals something less than 2 hours, 30 minutes.

    Over the last year or so, Amtrak has been smart about things and has focused on increasing the reliability, on time percentages, and frequency along the Washington to New York City route. As far as I can tell, Amtrak hopes that it can demonstrate its usefulness to a skeptical congress, thereby buying itself some political capital to make additional investments on the Washington to New York City route, and then ultimately to other short routes that might make sense.

    From time to time, Adam Smith has laid out a menu of improvements on the Washington to New York City route. Basically $650 million in investments reduces the time from Washington to New York City by about 15 or 20 minutes. The next 15 minutes will cost you about $7 billion. These options are starting to be repeated to the congress.

    Anyway, the point here is that in the subway thread, I said:

    Originally posted by DanS
    You are deliberately misconstruing my opinion. Intercity rail makes little sense, except in the NE corridor.
    I take that back. It might make sense LA to Las Vegas and LA to San Francisco. But probably even these don't make sense, considering that large amounts of investment would be required to establish any sort of viable service.
    Last edited by DanS; December 3, 2007, 13:25.
    I came upon a barroom full of bad Salon pictures in which men with hats on the backs of their heads were wolfing food from a counter. It was the institution of the "free lunch" I had struck. You paid for a drink and got as much as you wanted to eat. For something less than a rupee a day a man can feed himself sumptuously in San Francisco, even though he be a bankrupt. Remember this if ever you are stranded in these parts. ~ Rudyard Kipling, 1891

  • #2
    I would immediately add Philly-Harrisburg, Chicago-Milwaukee, and LA-San Diego to your list of viable routs.

    For the rest, there are a lot of very interesting high speed proposals, with varying cost, performance, and ridership charecteristics. Id say each one should be evaluated on the basis of said charecteristics.
    "A person cannot approach the divine by reaching beyond the human. To become human, is what this individual person, has been created for.” Martin Buber

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    • #3
      How many people commute on each of those routes? Are they already served by rail, who owns the tracks, and are they electrified?

      Anything that includes real high speed rail seems pie in the sky at this moment.
      I came upon a barroom full of bad Salon pictures in which men with hats on the backs of their heads were wolfing food from a counter. It was the institution of the "free lunch" I had struck. You paid for a drink and got as much as you wanted to eat. For something less than a rupee a day a man can feed himself sumptuously in San Francisco, even though he be a bankrupt. Remember this if ever you are stranded in these parts. ~ Rudyard Kipling, 1891

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      • #4
        I dunno how viable inter-city rail would be in California, if only because San Francisco is the only city there with a concentrated core that people want to get to. How many people really want to go to (or from) downtown LA or San Diego?
        "The French caused the war [Persian Gulf war, 1991]" - Ned
        "you people who bash Bush have no appreciation for one of the great presidents in our history." - Ned
        "I wish I had gay sex in the boy scouts" - Dissident

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        • #5
          Originally posted by DanS
          How many people commute on each of those routes?
          a significant number, but so what, some folks commute on the NEC Amtrak trains as well, and one of the keys to the economics of the corridor is that you need it anyway for commuter trains. Theres no reason to not combine commuter/intercity service in some fashion.

          Indeed, I suspect thats also a factor on DC-Richmond.
          "A person cannot approach the divine by reaching beyond the human. To become human, is what this individual person, has been created for.” Martin Buber

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          • #6
            I cross-edited you. By commute, I don't mean a daily commute. Rather, how many trips by air are taken on each of those destinations? At a minimum, we need to know how many trips are available from those who have given up driving the route because of congestion or other factors.
            I came upon a barroom full of bad Salon pictures in which men with hats on the backs of their heads were wolfing food from a counter. It was the institution of the "free lunch" I had struck. You paid for a drink and got as much as you wanted to eat. For something less than a rupee a day a man can feed himself sumptuously in San Francisco, even though he be a bankrupt. Remember this if ever you are stranded in these parts. ~ Rudyard Kipling, 1891

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            • #7
              The math on the Washington to New York line is pretty simple, and I would like to see similar figures for other places. 10,000 travelers on air/rail on the weekdays. Rail is taking a 55% share. Average fare about $200 one-way. So that's about $1 million per day, or roughly $250 million per annum.

              Given this, the marginal investment of $650 million seems to make pretty good sense, but a $7 billion investment doesn't seem to make sense.
              I came upon a barroom full of bad Salon pictures in which men with hats on the backs of their heads were wolfing food from a counter. It was the institution of the "free lunch" I had struck. You paid for a drink and got as much as you wanted to eat. For something less than a rupee a day a man can feed himself sumptuously in San Francisco, even though he be a bankrupt. Remember this if ever you are stranded in these parts. ~ Rudyard Kipling, 1891

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              • #8
                Im quite sure they are all highway diversions mainly, not air. All have congested highways parallel, IIUC. Which adds to the public benefits from their existence, of course.

                I dont think any of them are electrified, though I may be wrong about Philly - Harrisburg.

                Im not sure what you mean by already served by rail? They are all key Amtrak routes that have been served since Amtrak was formed, and were served by passenger rail for generations before that. I was listing routes that are economically viable given current tech, with NO investments for HSR. IE ones that are worth the subsidy, to avoid putting significant numbers of vehicles on congested parallel roads.

                As for whats viable for HSR, thats another question. I think several city pairs maybe, but I wouldnt prejudge. The only HSR CBA ive looked at was the California one, and I was looking at wrt to a side issue, not the basic question of whether the proposed system made sense or not.
                "A person cannot approach the divine by reaching beyond the human. To become human, is what this individual person, has been created for.” Martin Buber

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                • #9
                  Originally posted by DanS
                  The math on the Washington to New York line is pretty simple, and I would like to see similar figures for other places. 10,000 travelers on air/rail on the weekdays. Rail is taking a 55% share. Average fare about $200 one-way. So that's about $1 million per day, or roughly $250 million per annum.

                  Given this, the marginal investment of $650 million seems to make pretty good sense, but a $7 billion investment doesn't seem to make sense.
                  Hmmm? Why would you run current revenue against a proposed investment? Unless the investment is needed to maintain current revenue (and er, what about operating cost? External benefits?) Youd weigh marginal benefits (mainly new riders) against the marginal investment. A large scale investment, would be to get lots of new riders.
                  "A person cannot approach the divine by reaching beyond the human. To become human, is what this individual person, has been created for.” Martin Buber

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                  • #10
                    The Acela line is complete garbage. All that money spent and the train still goes slower then it did in 1950.

                    Passenger rail could be great in America but our government is to cheap and to stupid to invest in a modern system so our current antique system doesn't work. Look at France's TGV, Japan's Shirukin, or Shanghai's Maglev to see how modern, efficient high speed rail works and notice how people flock to it. If the train goes 250 mph and costs a fraction of flying then people WILL use it because it is cheap, fast, and you don't have worry about the DHLS giving you an anal probe.

                    California's voters voted to approve the construction of a built train network in the state but Arnold never did anything about it. I'd say the California lines could be just as busy as a Washington - NYC line.
                    Try http://wordforge.net/index.php for discussion and debate.

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                    • #11
                      Originally posted by lord of the mark
                      Hmmm? Why would you run current revenue against a proposed investment? Unless the investment is needed to maintain current revenue (and er, what about operating cost? External benefits?) Youd weigh marginal benefits (mainly new riders) against the marginal investment. A large scale investment, would be to get lots of new riders.
                      I think it's a good order-of-magnitude analysis tool.
                      I came upon a barroom full of bad Salon pictures in which men with hats on the backs of their heads were wolfing food from a counter. It was the institution of the "free lunch" I had struck. You paid for a drink and got as much as you wanted to eat. For something less than a rupee a day a man can feed himself sumptuously in San Francisco, even though he be a bankrupt. Remember this if ever you are stranded in these parts. ~ Rudyard Kipling, 1891

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Re: Intercity passenger rail in the US

                        Originally posted by DanS

                        I take that back. It might make sense LA to Las Vegas and LA to San Francisco. But probably even these don't make sense, considering that large amounts of investment would be required to establish any sort of viable service.
                        LA to San Francisco wouldn't be an ideal route. The coastal route in between is very sparsly populated and has lots of very steep mountains. Look at this picture:



                        If I recall correctly the proposed California High Speed Rail Network would have a main TGV like line following the route of Interstate 5 from San Diego to Sacramento with three smaller lines; one San Francisco to Reno, NV and another from Los Angles to Las Vegas, and a final line from San Diego to Santa Barbara servicing the densely populated coastal cities of Southern California.
                        Try http://wordforge.net/index.php for discussion and debate.

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                        • #13
                          You've got to have major cities anchoring the line. That's why the major service in the Northeast Corridor doesn't end at Richmond, but rather at Washington. Don't know that Sacramento would be enough of a draw.
                          Last edited by DanS; December 3, 2007, 14:16.
                          I came upon a barroom full of bad Salon pictures in which men with hats on the backs of their heads were wolfing food from a counter. It was the institution of the "free lunch" I had struck. You paid for a drink and got as much as you wanted to eat. For something less than a rupee a day a man can feed himself sumptuously in San Francisco, even though he be a bankrupt. Remember this if ever you are stranded in these parts. ~ Rudyard Kipling, 1891

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                          • #14
                            Originally posted by lord of the mark
                            I would immediately add ... LA-San Diego to your list of viable routs.
                            Done, done and done. One of our court commissioners here in L.A. is married to a San Diego judge. They live midway, and both commute by train. toot toot

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                            • #15
                              Re: Intercity passenger rail in the US

                              Originally posted by DanS
                              To recap, the US has the most heavily used freight rail system in the world.
                              Are you sure its not Japan?

                              Spec.
                              -Never argue with an idiot; He will bring you down to his level and beat you with experience.

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