Cograts Aussies, you have finially gotten rid of Howard

[Blake]

Originally posted by Tim_Augustus
Yes yes yes, but she's still from ****ing Tasmania.

There's only one worse place to come from, and that's New Zealand...

Aussies take pride in their inbreeding .

[Darius871]

Originally posted by Wezil
Down boy!

Wha-ksh!

[Tim_Augustus]

Originally posted by trev


It is the boom that is the huge risk to Australia, it is adding major stimulus to our economy, causing major labour shortages and increasing inflation and interest rates, a major overvaluation of our currency, this having gone from a low of about 46c to US$ to about .94c to US$ with predictions it will rise above parity.
Australia needs more financial shocks from the US to lessen the impact of the boom, I am sure from past form the US will oblige.

If you look at the Aussie vs the Euro you'll notice that not much has changed there since the AUD was .80 USD or so. What's happened is the USD has lost value through the sub-prime crisis - a devaluation that is acting as a safety valve to help stop the US economy from imploding.

Australia seems - so far - to have been only slightly weakened by the US crisis. Our main economic problem at the moment is the inflation rate being slightly above the target rate of 2-3% - it's for that reason the RBA has raised interest rates. We do also have high levels of consumer debt.

It's worth noting that it was a Labor government who modernised Australia's economy through floating the dollar, putting in place the IR system that most of us still work under in spite of WorkChoices and AWA's, and developing the universal compulsory superannuation scheme which has, as a side effect of its purpose to lessen the public pension burden, driven massive capital investment in Australia...

[Ramo]

Howard lost his own seat. Apparently, that hasn't happened since 1932.

[Dracon II]

Coincidentally, the last PM to lose his own seat, Stanley Bruce, also tried to make major alterations to the industrial relations system.

I don't believe that the majority of Australians will remember Howard as bitterly as they do Keating (I'm the other way around... I'm fond of Keating, personally). This was not necessarily a rejection of Howard and his philosophy (although its safe to say Workchoices and his climate change policies were rejected), as Rudd has followed Howard on many points of policy. This is rather a reflection of a mood for change and for a fresh Government.

Kevin Rudd is a smart, hard-working and moral person. When he was shadow foreign minister I did an internship in his Brisbane office and developed a deep respect for him. At the time, Labor was still licking its wounds from the 2004 election, had ditched Latham for Beazley, and was facing irrelevance in both houses of Parliament. I was disappointed that Beazley had retaken the leadership (although I like the man), and had already written off 2007 as a possibility for Labor. At the time I hoped Rudd would make a challenge for the leadership, but I didn't fancy his chances. As foreign affairs spokesman, he had no public profile, and as I saw it, no support in the Labor caucus. That he managed to become the phenomenon he became in 2007 would have seemed nothing short of miraculous to me at that time (indeed, it still does). And now I can say that I used to make tea for the Prime Minister

My home state of QLD was the big story of the election... for a long time overshadowed in politics by NSW and Victoria, we now have a Labor Government with a PM and Treasurer from QLD, which is deeply indebted to the voters in this state who handed them the prize.

Anyway, I'm tired from all this writing. I still have an awful hangover from last night's celebrations. Good night.

[Tim_Augustus]

Originally posted by Dracon II


My home state of QLD was the big story of the election... for a long time overshadowed in politics by NSW and Victoria, we now have a Labor Government with a PM and Treasurer from QLD, which is deeply indebted to the voters in this state who handed them the prize.

Indeed - and it's quite possible things will continue in that direction - Queensland (my home also) is projected to surpass Victoria's population by 2020 or so. It'd be hard to see the state's national influence not following the same trend. It may well be that the next Liberal PM will from QLD...

[Dracon II]

Well, the most senior Liberal Leader in Country is in QLD... he's the Mayor of Brisbane

[trev]

Kevin Rudd is a cautious individual who finds it difficult to delegate to others, I think he has referred to himself as a control freak from memory. My impression is that he will primarily be a manager of government, not changing much, which is fine while things do not need changing, however if circumstances alter in the future he probably will be too slow to make the necessary decisions allowing problems to build to crisis point first. This is not a good thing, yet it is the way of most of the current crop of labour state premiers, only after severe water shortages are experienced or people die from medical errors in the state run hospitals do they take action, or major disruptions to the transport systems occur do they begin to pretend to fix it.
The last thing Australia needs is a Federal government with a similar attitude, but there is a hell of a chance that is what we have got.
John Howard was a reformist leader who took action to change the country in his way, generally rightwing policies, many of which were unpopular, but they have made Australia great economically. We have a heap of do nothing premiers who because they offend noone keep getting re-elected, now we probably have a similar type of prime minister.
In Indigenous affairs he may return it to the status quo which is heavily supported where non aboriginals are totally excluded from almost all aboriginal centres which means that problems in remote aboriginal towns will again begin hidden from the public due to lack of media access and access from other outside individuals. These problems can then again fester and destroy the aboriginal population. Hiding a problem is no solution, yet it is the policy followed by Australia governments for the last 30 years or so until John Howard had the courage to act and do something about it, despite heavy criticism. Now if labour follow their policy we will return to those bad old days.

[Dracon II]

I think that the Senate will oppose any attempts to make major changes to the NT intervention, at least for the 8 months in which the Coalition still retain a majority there. But that might not matter if the executive loses the will to effectively enforce the enabling legislation. I doubt it though, as Kevin Rudd was very quick to lend his support to the policy. There will be tinkering at the edges, such as the reinstatement of CDEP and the permit system, but Rudd staked his own moral capital on the Government's solution being, in general terms, the right solution. It wouldn't be a good look if he backed away from it.

The Senate results are the ones to watch now... we'll soon see how stable our Washminster mutation is going to be over the next three years. Unless the few senate seats that are still in doubt fall to Greens, I think its going to be a Nick Xenophon - Steve Fielding balance of power. Nick Xenophon is a former independent senator of the South Australian parliament, where he ran on a "No Pokies" platform (banning Poker Machines in bars). He seems to be a folksy populist who will not tie himself to either side. Steve Fielding is a Family First senator, which is a party that is backed by the Assemblies of God, a network of evangelical churches in Australia's "mortgage belt". He will support Labor on any 'cost-of-living' policies, I'm sure, as housing affordability and petrol/grocery costs are major issues facing families. But he is a Christian conservative and will possibly attempt to leverage social reforms in return for his support. Kevin may find his veto power useful in maintaining discipline among Labor's left-wing, who are no doubt itching for some power after 11 years of Howard. Rudd will have to watch his left-wing if the Senate ends up with a Labor-Green majority, because it was a right-wing majority in the Senate which paradoxically killed the Howard Government. Howard lost the inherent discipline that a hostile senate inevitably imposed and "jumped the shark" putting through industrial relations reforms that alienated his working class base and the final privatization of Telstra which alienated his rural base. The Australian public is not an activist, left-liberal nation, nor is it a neoliberal, or doctrinally conservative, nation. Both parties need the discipline of opposing force to save them from their own true believers.

[Dracon II]

It looks as though the Xenophon-Fielding balance of power is the way things will be: http://www.abc.net.au/elections/fede...esults/senate/

It should be interesting... I'm guessing that if water policy rates attention in the new Senate (and my bet is it will), South Australia are going to finally get their fair share of the Murray-Darling. And Senator Xenophon may even get Rudd to lobby the Greek Government to give Socrates a posthumous pardon. That's if Senator Aristophanes doesn't convince the PM that Socrates was a corrupt sophist who taught people to avoid their debts and disrespect their father