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  • Then and Now

    What was then in Dec 2002...


    The administration's top budget official estimated today that the cost of a war with Iraq could be in the range of $50 billion to $60 billion, a figure that is well below earlier estimates from White House officials.

    In a telephone interview today, the official, Mitchell E. Daniels Jr., director of the Office of Management and Budget, also said there was likely to be a deficit in the fiscal 2004 budget, though he declined to specify how large it would be. The administration is scheduled to present its budget to Congress on Feb. 3.

    Mr. Daniels would not provide specific costs for either a long or a short military campaign against Saddam Hussein. But he said that the administration was budgeting for both, and that earlier estimates of $100 billion to $200 billion in Iraq war costs by Lawrence B. Lindsey, Mr. Bush's former chief economic adviser, were too high.

    Mr. Daniels cautioned that his budget projections did not mean a war with Iraq was imminent, and that it was impossible to know what any military campaign against Iraq would ultimately cost.

    ''This is nothing more than prudent contingency planning,'' Mr. Daniels said from his home in Indianapolis, where he was reviewing the fiscal 2004 budget at his kitchen table. ''At this point there is no war.''

    and well here comes 2007...

    BBC, News, BBC News, news online, world, uk, international, foreign, british, online, service


    Democrats say the wars have cost $1.5 trillion - almost twice the requested $804bn (£402bn) - because of "hidden costs", the Washington Post reports.

    That figure would amount to $20,000 for a regular US family of four, it adds.
    .
    .
    .

    It adds that the amount could rise to $46,300 over the next decade, the Washington Post says.
    well regardless whether 1.5 trillion or "just" 800 billion...

    How do you feel now about the government initial estimate of 50-60 billion, and can they be trusted with anything at all, given that they have missed more than 10x (at least) with the estimate at the time when it mattered?!?

    I mean even if they went in with a closer to reality 1/2 trillion cost (still likely to be far to low), would the American people have been for the war than?

    What would you say - outright incompetence, plain deceit, or other (pls explain) in 2002 from your point of view?
    14
    They are just the bunch of incompetent bureaucrats (aka, Incompetence)
    42.86%
    6
    They cooked the books well, and we bought it (aka, Deceit)
    35.71%
    5
    It was a honest mistake :-) (aka, Other - please elaborate)
    7.14%
    1
    Even a corrupt banana would have made a better estimate
    14.29%
    2
    Socrates: "Good is That at which all things aim, If one knows what the good is, one will always do what is good." Brian: "Romanes eunt domus"
    GW 2013: "and juistin bieber is gay with me and we have 10 kids we live in u.s.a in the white house with obama"

  • #2
    As with the rest of the planning they did not take an extended occupation into consideration. Just march in, sweep away Saddam and company, and istall the eager Iraqi exile community into power.

    That being said, I fail to see how even the initial invasion by itself could cost only 60 billion. Moving all the equipment over there, moving it all back (if we had left), ordinance expended, equipment replacement (things wear out, even in a campaign that short), and a thousand other normal things.

    They really ****ed that up, but then again some people predicted 30+K casualties for the initial invasion to. People are stupid.
    "The DPRK is still in a state of war with the U.S. It's called a black out." - Che explaining why orbital nightime pictures of NK show few lights. Seriously.

    Comment


    • #3
      Except they didn't count on the reluctance of the population to take control of their own destiny.
      Life is not measured by the number of breaths you take, but by the moments that take your breath away.
      "Hating America is something best left to Mobius. He is an expert Yank hater.
      He also hates Texans and Australians, he does diversify." ~ Braindead

      Comment


      • #4
        Originally posted by SlowwHand
        Except they didn't count on the reluctance of the population to take control of their own destiny.
        The population has taken control of its own destiny. They just didn't count on there being multiple, competing versions of that destiny, and multiple, armed populations, each willing to fight for its version.

        Mind you, anyone with a 7th grade education, a library card, and an hour to kill reading up on the history of Iraq would have come to the conclusion that this would happen. But I guess nobody in the White House has a library card.
        "I have as much authority as the pope. I just don't have as many people who believe it." — George Carlin

        Comment


        • #5
          I think its a combination. Though more incompetance than deceit, though I think the numbers were downplayed a bit to sell it to the American people. However, I don't think the administration thought it'd cost THIS much... especially since they thought the Iraqi people would be welcoming us with flowers and whatnot.
          “I give you a new commandment, that you love one another. Just as I have loved you, you also should love one another. By this everyone will know that you are my disciples, if you have love for one another.”
          - John 13:34-35 (NRSV)

          Comment


          • #6
            Another pointless poll catering to the liberals.
            Yada, yada, redundant yada.
            Life is not measured by the number of breaths you take, but by the moments that take your breath away.
            "Hating America is something best left to Mobius. He is an expert Yank hater.
            He also hates Texans and Australians, he does diversify." ~ Braindead

            Comment


            • #7
              Yet, your dollar is getting weaker and weaker...

              Yada yada you say?

              Spec.
              -Never argue with an idiot; He will bring you down to his level and beat you with experience.

              Comment


              • #8
                Spec, give it a rest. No, take your shots because I'm going to return fire. Pass this blame game onto the next lucky contestant.
                Life is not measured by the number of breaths you take, but by the moments that take your breath away.
                "Hating America is something best left to Mobius. He is an expert Yank hater.
                He also hates Texans and Australians, he does diversify." ~ Braindead

                Comment


                • #9
                  Well, fire at will Sloww. This is not a blame game as you call it, but reality. If it wasn't for this stupid war on terror with a president on an agenda, your doillar would still be strong "Aside from the loans under prime mistake". I can buy a Condo in St-Petersberg Florida for only 120KUSD today if I want. AND thats like 108k CAD!....you guys are turning into Mexico....

                  Spec.
                  -Never argue with an idiot; He will bring you down to his level and beat you with experience.

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Well, we are importing Mexicans to teach us how .
                    “I give you a new commandment, that you love one another. Just as I have loved you, you also should love one another. By this everyone will know that you are my disciples, if you have love for one another.”
                    - John 13:34-35 (NRSV)

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Originally posted by SlowwHand
                      Another pointless poll catering to the liberals.
                      Yada, yada, redundant yada.
                      why redundant?
                      While another upward revision from 800bn to well over a trillion is still pending (however highly likely over the coming years)... is it not good to discuss what went wrong that the whole system could be that much off when discussing the case for war? Those are the figures which have been thrown around from official sources, I would say that the average American was hoping this will be it, or a bit more, not 1/2 trillion more...

                      Point being is that while this is more relevant to Americans, it is sadly relevant to the rest of the world too, as with your economy tanking ours will soon follow, and this nice 1/2 trillion+ would be handy. Isn't history there to learn from it, perhaps next time we'll all be able to recognize it better...

                      and it's not ancient history yet to move it to history forum
                      Socrates: "Good is That at which all things aim, If one knows what the good is, one will always do what is good." Brian: "Romanes eunt domus"
                      GW 2013: "and juistin bieber is gay with me and we have 10 kids we live in u.s.a in the white house with obama"

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        ummmm, where are you getting that our economy is tanking?
                        "The DPRK is still in a state of war with the U.S. It's called a black out." - Che explaining why orbital nightime pictures of NK show few lights. Seriously.

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          well it's not totally tanking but it is taking a hit relating to the sub primes, and pushed by oil prices and inflation on the other... not to make it to an economy related thread... (my bad )

                          One of the points is that if an estimate of prolonged stay "cost" was shown at the beginning of the war, I assume people would be thinking twice about the commitment, however as it is noone even blinked an eye on 50-60 bn figure... today we see a very different picture...

                          The amount of the difference is staggering, and I am interested to see what do you think of it now, 5 years down the line.
                          Socrates: "Good is That at which all things aim, If one knows what the good is, one will always do what is good." Brian: "Romanes eunt domus"
                          GW 2013: "and juistin bieber is gay with me and we have 10 kids we live in u.s.a in the white house with obama"

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            Originally posted by SlowwHand
                            Except they didn't count on the reluctance of the population to take control of their own destiny.
                            A tad harsh to blame the Iraqi population IMO.

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              Originally posted by Cort Haus
                              A tad harsh to blame the Iraqi population IMO.
                              As if its their responsibility or something.

                              We invaded their country. We destroyed their infrastructure. We took down their government. We broke it, but it's their job to fix it?
                              Click here if you're having trouble sleeping.
                              "We confess our little faults to persuade people that we have no large ones." - François de La Rochefoucauld

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