If Yellowstone Blew...

[lord of the mark]

Originally posted by East Street Trader
The US, on the other hand, has engaged in the Cold War with the USSR, interfered extensively in Asia (Korea and Viet Nam),

Countries that provided forces to support the US and the ROK during the Korean war


Canada, Australia, New Zealand, Britain, France, South Africa, Turkey, Thailand, Greece, the Netherlands, Ethiopia, Colombia, the Philippines, Belgium, and Luxembourg.

[Patroklos]

China would have a hell of a run, they would have to go for food and not stop.

I think the Indian/China nuclear war would take a little steam out of them. And the Monroe doctrine would still have half our nukes on its side.

Besides, we can't let China take Argentine when we will need to take them ourselves to feed the East Coast.

[lord of the mark]

Instead of talking in the abstract about the US as a stabilizing influence, lets look at the specifics you suggest

Would the Russians and the Chinese go after each other over untapped Siberian wealth?

I doubt it. The US has little direct influence over the Sino-Russian balance today. The things that exist in Siberia are not the things that would mainly be in short supply.

Would the Germans and French go one more round for old times sake?

I doubt it. This isnt 1991, when the direction of europe was uncertain. In part thanks to the successful integration of eastern europe, with US support, the European equilibrium is much more stable. A world without the US, and with China becoming dominant, would likely lead the Euros to cling to each other all the more closely.

Would there be a mad rush for the 'New World', the repopulation of North America? Who would be the winners and losers?

To sketchy to say, depends on what happens to the US fleet, and to surviving overseas possesions. If the USN-Puerto Rico-Hawaii alliance is too weak to hold CONUS, then CONUS is likely to prove too big a temptation - some one will go for it.

Would little nuke wars break out? India/Pakistan, Russia/China...

Again, probably not Russia-China. India-Pakistan is more interesting, as the US is deeply involved in that nuclear balance today, OTOH their are dynamics leading to restraint on both sides as well. First change is A. US and Canadian forces leave Afghanistan. B. NATO allies, faced with major economic problems at home, also leave. C. Pakistan, Russia, India restart rivalry over Afghanistan (pre-2001 status quo, more or less) Pakistan govt moves back towad ISI/Islamist position - or does it? How does India respond? Anyway, theyre all desperate for food, and Afghanistan aint got much. Russia looks stronger, assuming theyve retaken the Ukraine. Actually Ukraine looks like a hotspot, between Russia and the EU.

Would Israel go down in a sea of invaders and take alot of arabs with them in a final blaze of nuke glory?

Thats a tad apocalyptic for me. I would say that the situation definitely becomes less stable, and less pleasant for all concerned.

Tiawan would go communist Chinese, but what of the rest of southeast asia, absorbed into China?

Depends on the food situation. SE asians could look to Russia I suppose. As could India. In general, in this scenario, everyone whos afraid of China would like to see a Russian - Chinese cold war. Its not clear that Moscow wants to see that though. Esp as they have a more imminent rivalry with the EU over Ukraine, a rivalry that is in fact already occuring pre-event.

[lord of the mark]

Originally posted by Patroklos

Besides, we can't let China take Argentine when we will need to take them ourselves to feed the East Coast.

Im going with the OP assumption that all of NA is wiped out, even if thats not quite geologically correct.

[Patroklos]

In that case Puerto Rico, Hawaii and Japan are destroyed by tsunamis.

[lord of the mark]

Originally posted by Patroklos
In that case Puerto Rico, Hawaii and Japan are destroyed by tsunamis.

Ok, not that NA ceases to exist physically, but that the ash destroys human life all over. Maybe Im misreading the OP?

Lancer?

Obviously the extent survival of people, and agriculture, in the eastern US/Canada is a non-trivial parameter of this scenario. Depending on how far the ash goes, theres even a fair bit of large scale grain production left (esp in Ohio, Indiana) You have to clarify this. Leave enough of the east left, together with overseas possesions, and the US military coming home (to the east coast) and the US will likely remain a world power (though a transformed one)

[LordShiva]

China would be discouraged from trying anything funny by 1. having to keep order at home when teh warehouses fill up and teh factories shut down, and 2. teh US ships in teh Persian Gulf and/or teh Indian ships in teh Indian Ocean get bored and decide to stop letting teh oil tankers through.

[lord of the mark]

If China goes on too big a run, too fast, too aggressively, they will create a Euro-Russian-Indian coalition against them, and they will go down. better to first take and absorb Taiwan, then take a breather, recover economically, and cultivate allies. Argentina and Brazil will be rivals, take one as an ally. Slowly dominate SE Asia, (what they are doing already) dare the Indians to stop them. Make a choice between Russia and the EU in the rivalry over Ukraine. If the US doesnt survive, insure no one else gets a dominant position in North America. Carve it up, a la Africa in 1884, or declare some kind of joint rule. Leaving it be a la Antartica is impossible, the world needs the grain too much.

If a settlement of the NA situation cant be reached, that is the obvious hot spot. Huge resources, and few surviving locals to make occupation difficult. China, Russia, India, Eu, all will want it. If China takes it, China wins. Game over.

[LordShiva]

I think teh countries of teh world will be too busy worrying about their own economies to be able to occupy distant continents.

[lord of the mark]

Originally posted by LordShiva
I think teh countries of teh world will be too busy worrying about their own economies to be able to occupy distant continents.

North America, free of people, is too big a temptation, regardless.

If you were scrounging for food, and somebody left a diamond worth a million dollars (but which you cant exchange for food in the short run) lying around would you not manage to turn aside momentarily to grab it?

Heck if China, India and the EU wont grab, then why wouldnt Brazil, whose economy is going to be in quite decent shape?

If no existing state goes for it, folks will repopulate it anyway.

Youre a Guatemalan peasant on too tiny a patch of land (and its rented from an eevil landlord anyway). You live on remittances from your cousin in LA, who is now dead. Somebody tells you there is land, free for the taking, not all that far way in Oaxaca state in southern Mexico. Its good maize land, suitable for the kind of agriculture youve practiced all your life. All you need to do is assemble enough food to live on for the journey and until the first crop comes in, and some tools to get started. And to go clear away the ash before you plant the first crop.

Folks will go. Surely folks will go.

And then, some clever guy from China or India will show up, offering to buy your surplus, in exchange for stuff piling up in warehouses. And then they will start in on who gets trading privileges in which area........

[Lorizael]

Btw, has this post-apocalyptic novel been written yet? It would be damn interesting.

[LordShiva]

That sort of organic thing would definitely happen. But for a larger scale "occupation," a country would have to ship thousands of people over, build expensive infrastructure, etc. Perhaps everyone would end up with little enclaves here and there, expensive to maintain, tenuously linked with their home countries.

[lord of the mark]

Originally posted by LordShiva
That sort of organic thing would definitely happen. But for a larger scale "occupation," a country would have to ship thousands of people over, build expensive infrastructure, etc. Perhaps everyone would end up with little enclaves here and there, expensive to maintain, tenuously linked with their home countries.

the guatemalan peasant thingie is the most organic, least organized, least connected. Thats not all that will happen though.

Your a Chinese factory owner in Shanghai. You have entrepreneurial skills, you follow markets, you assemble resources to create business, you have contacts of all kinds. Unfortunately the market for barbie doll knock offs wont support the cost of production, and youre factory is bankrupt.

You look around. Whats in demand? Food, of course. All kinds of food. especially the kinds that were imported from NA, but also everything else as people substitute.

On the Columbia river in Washington/Oregon is a rich fresh water salmon fishery. Unlike agriculture, you dont even have to wait for a crop to come in. All you need is a modest labor force (you cant walk too steps in Shanghai without walking into unemployed) , some equipment (cheap, like all small manufactured goods in China post-event) and some food till you haul in the first fish. And some security(youve heard there are wild Guatemalan peasants running around), but mercs are cheap too, as are small arms. You will need some capital, but this is a cant lose proposition, you will get capital.

Soon youve established your little (or not so little) fishing outpost, and youre shipping salmon back to China. While youre there, you plant crops nearby to feed your own workers, but soon youre exporting crops too. and soon timber. Meanwhile this stuff is happening all along the Pacific coast. And then inland. Exactly how fast, and in what way, these settlements will connect with the old countries is not clear. The tax revenues from claiming them is going to be tempting for the financially stretched govts of China and India, and the arms to put down these rebellious colonists wont be excessive. Maybe. (oh, and you get markets for all that stuff sitting in the warehouses) Or Beijing offers to help the Chinese colonists against the Indian colonists. They dont need a lot of force, cause mainly they will be using the Chinese colonists themselves as a force. If this reminds of you of North America from 1550 to 1763 (but without American Indians) , well it should. The dynamic is still the same, though the tech is different.

[lord of the mark]

Originally posted by LordShiva
That sort of organic thing would definitely happen. But for a larger scale "occupation," a country would have to ship thousands of people over, build expensive

Getting rid of excess, unemeployed population is a bonus.

You dont need expensive infrastructure. You dont have to recreate pre-event North America, you just have to exploit the resources that are most in demand. You wont rebuild hollywood, or silicon valley. You wont recreate southern calif irrigated agriculture, at least not for a while. But theres plenty you can do, esp in the Pacific NW, without much infrastructure, other than ports and some limited transport facilities (and did the event really kill every road?) And its not like theres a shortage of unemployed Chinese construction workers.

[LordShiva]

Organic in the sense that it's driven by private citizens and corporations on a small scale. There will eventually be consolidation, but I'd think these enclaves would rather band together with each other than with their home countries.