China to crash U.S. dollar?

[Patroklos]

And they would sell to the rest of the world, like the EU, other Asian nations and to their own domestic market. They would also sell goods to middle men in other countries who would relabel the goods before shipping to the U.S.

What makes you think these markets are not saturated already? Do you think China can't walk and chew gum at the same time?

The U.S. has no economic influence over China because if the U.S. tries to flex its muscle, China just squeezes very hard.

The exact opposite is true as well, and as noted the US can weather a recession, China can't.

[Tingkai]

15 years ago, the Chinese economy was reliant on exports to the United States. This is no longer the case. Chinese exports are becoming more geographically diversified every day and as that happens, the prospect of losing the U.S. market becomes less of a threat.

Can China weather a recession? No one can predict the future. What we do know is that the Communist Party has survived difficult times in the past, and there is no reason to believe that it won't survive in the future. So the odds are, China can weather a recession.

And Americans need to realize that the United States has lost its economic credibility.In the 1990s, people in Asia saw the United States as the shining example of greatness. Not any more.

[Joseph]

A question. What would happen if the US stop receiving any Chinese goods for 90 to 120 days?

[lord of the mark]

Originally posted by Tingkai
It's the economic nuclear option. If Washington fires the first economic nuke, China fires back. No doubt, everyone gets hurt.

But the days when the U.S. could impose economic penalties on China without getting significantly burned are long gone, and that's the big difference.

The U.S. has no economic influence over China because if the U.S. tries to flex its muscle, China just squeezes very hard.

So the U.S. is powerless. American politicians will talk tough at home, but they won't do anything because they know it would lead to an economic nuclear winter.

The U.S. is indeed neutered.

This rhetoric. No one is proposing the US embargo China. At most there would be selective measures. This happens all the time in trade disputes. China would likely respond with selective measures. For China to take extreme measures in response to a relatively minor US measure, which is what youre suggesting, would simply be China flexing ITS muscle.

[lord of the mark]

[QUOTE] Originally posted by Tingkai

15 years ago, the Chinese economy was reliant on exports to the United States. This is no longer the case. Chinese exports are becoming more geographically diversified every day and as that happens, the prospect of losing the U.S. market becomes less of a threat.

Youre missing the point. This isnt about China losing the US market. Its about China deliberatly triggering a global recession, that would impact EVERY market they sell to.

Can China weather a recession? No one can predict the future. What we do know is that the Communist Party has survived difficult times in the past, and there is no reason to believe that it won't survive in the future. So the odds are, China can weather a recession.

There is no doubt China can weather a recession. The question is whether the CP can. The CP in its current ideological form has only ruled since the late 70s. Since that time, it has maintained rapid economic growth. It is widely beleived that that is one of the principle props of its rule, now that its ideologically bankrupt.

And Americans need to realize that the United States has lost its economic credibility.In the 1990s, people in Asia saw the United States as the shining example of greatness. Not any more.

I was under the impression that most Asians were more interested in following in the footsteps of the four tigers, who in turn, way back in the'80s, had followed Japan. The "everyone worshipped the US model" meme is a strawman folks use to make ideological points today, more than it is an historical reality.

[Agathon]

Originally posted by Joseph
A question. What would happen if the US stop receiving any Chinese goods for 90 to 120 days?

Are you seriously going to stop Americans from going to the mall? This would be about as popular as banning television.

Even the most ignorant, apolitical landwhales among you would be rioting in the streets if that happened.

[DinoDoc]

Originally posted by Joseph
A question. What would happen if the US stop receiving any Chinese goods for 90 to 120 days?

Less Americans would die.

[Zkribbler]

& Christmas would be cancelled. (80% of all our toys come from China, and 100% of our toys with lead-based paint come from China.)

[lord of the mark]

Originally posted by Agathon




Are you seriously going to stop Americans from going to the mall? This would be about as popular as banning television.

Even the most ignorant, apolitical landwhales among you would be rioting in the streets if that happened.

seriously now, we're talking 90 days. We wouldnt have to stop going to the mall for awhile, theres a lot of inventory in the pipeline. We had a dock strike that virtually halted imports for almost a week from all of east Asia a few years ago, consumers didnt even notice.

If it was china only, well theres plenty of cheap clothes made in Viet Nam, Indonesia, Mauritius, Honduras, etc, etc.

Toys would be a problem. Have to buy kids used toys on ebay. Or go to Amish country for handcarved wooden toys. Or buy PS3 games from Japan.

It would be hard, very hard, but I suspect we'd live. Something to tell our grandkids about

[Dauphin]

Originally posted by Joseph
A question. What would happen if the US stop receiving any Chinese goods for 90 to 120 days?

Walmart would report 3rd Quarter losses.

[Colon™]

Originally posted by Tingkai
the Yuan is peg to the dollar

No....

[Whoha]

regardless of the exact specific peg its marked to it is very strictly controlled.

anyway, trade protectionism and monetarism

[DaShi]

Originally posted by Tingkai


Not at all

China would sell of the reserves to buy other currencies and because the Yuan is peg to the dollar, the Yuan goes down relative to other currencies making Chinese goods all the more cheaper on the world market, or the Chinese could simply shift the dollar peg.

Who will buy them? No one with better money.

And they would sell to the rest of the world, like the EU, other Asian nations and to their own domestic market. They would also sell goods to middle men in other countries who would relabel the goods before shipping to the U.S.

The rest of the world won't make up the buying power of the US at this time. If the dollar crashes, the US simply won't be able to buy Chinese goods like it had. Chinese factories would be forced to shut down while trying to unload surplus. This would costs jobs diminishing the buying power in China itself. Loans would be defaulted and the market would crash. Hell, I'd predict that the Chinese market would crash overnight if the dollar fell too fast or the US stopped trading with China.

Meanwhile, the U.S. would be neutered and forced to pay even more money for basic things like oil.

Not neutered, but severely crippled.

The US has faced far worse than the CCP economically and has pulled through even stronger for it. Today, the CCP sweats nearly every transaction. The market must be so closely watched and controlled because it is so unstable at the moment. China both welcomes and fears competition from India. In one aspect, it could bring a much needed cool down to it's economy, which they fear will rebound on itself. On the otherhand, they're not exactly sure what will happen, if there is a slow down. The Chinese economy is like a runaway train, one wrong move and it will run off the tracks. Given what they are working with, I've got to give big kudos for the CCP on how well they've been managing it.

[MRT144]

Originally posted by Dauphin


Walmart would report 3rd Quarter losses.

[Odin]

Originally posted by LordShiva
The loss would be far greater for China in terms of % of GDP.

Besides, Chinese dollar holdings aren't hugely significant, given the number of dollars in circulation. China is overestimating (surprise!) its power to hurt the US economy.

I agree. We should call them on this BS. If it leads to a bad economic downturn China will get hurt a hell of a lot worse then we would.

Bring out the tariffs!