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WSJ and Laffer: Curve Fitting 101

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  • WSJ and Laffer: Curve Fitting 101

    Foreign leaders are also learning another lesson: Lower corporate tax rates with fewer loopholes can lead to more, not less, tax revenue from business. The nearby chart shows the Laffer Curve effect from business taxation. Tax receipts tend to fall below their optimum potential when corporate tax rates are so high that they lead to the creation of loopholes and the incentive to move income to countries with a lower tax rate. Ireland is the classic case of a nation on the "correct side" of this curve. It has a 12.5% corporate rate, nearly the lowest in the world, and yet collects 3.6% of GDP in corporate revenues, well above the international average.

    The U.S., by contrast, with its near 40% rate has been averaging less than 2.5% of GDP in corporate receipts. Kevin Hassett, an economist at the American Enterprise Institute who has studied the impact of corporate taxes, says the U.S. "appears to be a nation on the wrong side of the Laffer Curve: We could collect more revenues with a lower corporate tax rate."




    Yes. That's clearly the most obvious fit. If you throw out every data point but Norway. WSJ, you are teh awesome.

    A small wrinkle with even that interpretation: as Brad deLong has pointed out,

    The revenues plotted on the vertical scale include oil excise taxes levied on corporations. The tax rates plotted on the horizontal scale do not--hence the Norway "tax rate" of 28% rather than the correct 52%.
    I'm kind of glad that Murdoch is buying the paper. Since the glue-sniffers who write the op-ed section will no longer be able to use their quite decent news section to legitimize themselves.
    "Beware of the man who works hard to learn something, learns it, and finds himself no wiser than before. He is full of murderous resentment of people who are ignorant without having come by their ignorance the hard way. "
    -Bokonon

  • #2
    WSJ = Teh Newsmax
    "Just puttin on the foil" - Jeff Hanson

    “In a democracy, I realize you don’t need to talk to the top leader to know how the country feels. When I go to a dictatorship, I only have to talk to one person and that’s the dictator, because he speaks for all the people.” - Jimmy Carter

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    • #3
      Yep, their op-eds are pretty much equivalent.
      "Beware of the man who works hard to learn something, learns it, and finds himself no wiser than before. He is full of murderous resentment of people who are ignorant without having come by their ignorance the hard way. "
      -Bokonon

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      • #4
        R^2 = 0.000000000002!
        Monkey!!!

        Comment


        • #5
          Larry Laffer
          I've allways wanted to play "Russ Meyer's Civilization"

          Comment


          • #6
            Re: WSJ and Laffer: Curve Fitting 101

            Originally posted by Ramo

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            • #7
              The WSJ editorial page is like the comic pages on most papers: Some of the items are good for a laugh; others provide a little puzzle to test your wits and see if you can figure out where the logical fallacy is.

              It's like the Daily Jumble.
              VANGUARD

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              • #8
                I can't honestly say I understand that at all. How does that curve show any relation to anything?

                The basic premise I wouldn't necessarily disagree with - lower tax rate with fewer loopholes certainly could lead to higher tax income. However I think the 'fewer loopholes' is a difficult thing to quantify and even harder to stick to...

                Norway is an outlier largely because of the oil taxes, I presume? They also have huge personal income taxes, iirc, so that would bias this (if Tax income as % of GDP includes personal income tax, which it well may).
                <Reverend> IRC is just multiplayer notepad.
                I like your SNOOPY POSTER! - While you Wait quote.

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                • #9
                  THEY!!111 OMG WTF LOL LET DA NOMADS AND TEH S3D3NTARY PEOPLA BOTH MAEK BITER AXP3REINCES
                  AND TEH GRAAT SINS OF THERE [DOCTRINAL] INOVATIONS BQU3ATH3D SMAL
                  AND!!1!11!!! LOL JUST IN CAES A DISPUTANT CALS U 2 DISPUT3 ABOUT THEYRE CLAMES
                  DO NOT THAN DISPUT3 ON THEM 3XCAPT BY WAY OF AN 3XTARNAL DISPUTA!!!!11!! WTF

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                  • #10
                    LS that's fantastic
                    <Reverend> IRC is just multiplayer notepad.
                    I like your SNOOPY POSTER! - While you Wait quote.

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                    • #11
                      seen it before

                      reminds me of class

                      JM
                      Jon Miller-
                      I AM.CANADIAN
                      GENERATION 35: The first time you see this, copy it into your sig on any forum and add 1 to the generation. Social experiment.

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                      • #12
                        Wow, just wow.
                        "I hope I get to punch you in the face one day" - MRT144, Imran Siddiqui
                        'I'm fairly certain that a ban on me punching you in the face is not a "right" worth respecting." - loinburger

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                        • #13
                          "Figures don't lie, but liars figure." Select your data carefully enough, and you, too, can prove that Norway has a great tax system or Cuba has a great health care system. Depends on the point you are trying to prove, not what the data actually reveals. WSJ readers are mostly corporate types who would love to see lower corporate taxes. Thus, a chart proving you get more from less. Yeah, right.
                          No matter where you go, there you are. - Buckaroo Banzai
                          "I played it [Civilization] for three months and then realised I hadn't done any work. In the end, I had to delete all the saved files and smash the CD." Iain Banks, author

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                          • #14
                            I don't know what's scarrier:

                            that WSJ is dumb enough to print that

                            or

                            that we smart enough to realize how lame that is
                            Monkey!!!

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                            • #15
                              Originally posted by LordShiva
                              http://pages.cs.wisc.edu/~kovar/hall.html
                              Seen it before, but still fantastic

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