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Reliability of weather forecasts

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  • Reliability of weather forecasts

    I'm planning an outdoor party for next Saturday, and have found one site which gives me a 10 day forecast. How reliable are long term forecasts, given that weather is largely chaotic?
    Originally posted by Serb:Please, remind me, how exactly and when exactly, Russia bullied its neighbors?
    Originally posted by Ted Striker:Go Serb !
    Originally posted by Pekka:If it was possible to capture the essentials of Sepultura in a dildo, I'd attach it to a bicycle and ride it up your azzes.

  • #2
    not reliable, but who knows... San Diego will be warm and sunny in 10 days... Bingo! Kinda depends on local and regional weather patterns.

    where have the hurricanes gone?

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    • #3
      very reliable

      they give % chances of rain for a reason

      you might take issue with a 40% chance of rain but in my eyes there is a 100% certainty that there will be a 40% chance of rain...in eye of beholder.

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      • #4
        you might take issue with a 40% chance of rain but in my eyes there is a 100% certainty that there will be a 40% chance of rain...in eye of beholder.
        Yeah, tomorrow, not 10 days from now

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        • #5
          Most 10 day forecasts give % chances of rain. (http://weather.msn.com/tenday.aspx?w...ns=wc:USNY0996)

          This would tell me with complete certainty, for instance, that an outdoor party on june 22 in new york may well get rained out.

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          • #6
            Physicists and mathematicians, please?
            Originally posted by Serb:Please, remind me, how exactly and when exactly, Russia bullied its neighbors?
            Originally posted by Ted Striker:Go Serb !
            Originally posted by Pekka:If it was possible to capture the essentials of Sepultura in a dildo, I'd attach it to a bicycle and ride it up your azzes.

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            • #7
              You're going to get killed in a mudslide.
              DISCLAIMER: the author of the above written texts does not warrant or assume any legal liability or responsibility for any offence and insult; disrespect, arrogance and related forms of demeaning behaviour; discrimination based on race, gender, age, income class, body mass, living area, political voting-record, football fan-ship and musical preference; insensitivity towards material, emotional or spiritual distress; and attempted emotional or financial black-mailing, skirt-chasing or death-threats perceived by the reader of the said written texts.

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              • #8
                Originally posted by Saras
                Physicists and mathematicians, please?
                I think the word you are looking for is "meteorologists"

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                • #9
                  We don't have meteorologists. We do have physicists and mathematicians and they know everything.
                  DISCLAIMER: the author of the above written texts does not warrant or assume any legal liability or responsibility for any offence and insult; disrespect, arrogance and related forms of demeaning behaviour; discrimination based on race, gender, age, income class, body mass, living area, political voting-record, football fan-ship and musical preference; insensitivity towards material, emotional or spiritual distress; and attempted emotional or financial black-mailing, skirt-chasing or death-threats perceived by the reader of the said written texts.

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                  • #10
                    Originally posted by Wiglaf
                    very reliable

                    they give % chances of rain for a reason

                    you might take issue with a 40% chance of rain but in my eyes there is a 100% certainty that there will be a 40% chance of rain...in eye of beholder.
                    I noticed that in day 9 and 10 the % change of rain is usually equal to the average. You might as well look at the averages after 4 days or so out.
                    I drank beer. I like beer. I still like beer. ... Do you like beer Senator?
                    - Justice Brett Kavanaugh

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                    • #11
                      10 Days Forcasts are pretty bad. Serious Meteorologists think all Forecasts arrround two weeks are BS. Might as well feel the balls of a goat to predict the Weather.
                      Curse your sudden but inevitable betrayal!

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                      • #12
                        round here they can't even 'predict' yesterdays weather...
                        Monkey!!!

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                        • #13
                          The best of the BBC, with the latest news and sport headlines, weather, TV & radio highlights and much more from across the whole of BBC Online


                          this one shows a shower and then some light rain where i am tomorr,w lets see how it does
                          Safer worlds through superior firepower

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                          • #14
                            Total crap.
                            "Beware of the man who works hard to learn something, learns it, and finds himself no wiser than before. He is full of murderous resentment of people who are ignorant without having come by their ignorance the hard way. "
                            -Bokonon

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                            • #15
                              Originally posted by Colonâ„¢
                              We don't have meteorologists. We do have physicists and mathematicians and they know everything.
                              Meteorologists are the dentists of the sciences. If you can't cut it as a doctor, you become a dentist...if you can't cut it as a serious scientist, you become a meteorologist.
                              "The issue is there are still many people out there that use religion as a crutch for bigotry and hate. Like Ben."
                              Ben Kenobi: "That means I'm doing something right. "

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