Two Palestinian States?

[Drake Tungsten]

Would they say no to free territory?

Yes. No one wants the Palestinians in their country.

[lord of the mark]

Originally posted by Barnabas
Why not give Gaza to egypt and the west bank to jordania? they are all arabs anyway, it is not like a palestinian state of two separate enclaves can succed, let gaza be a port of egypt and the west bank jordanian territory

Would they say no to free territory?

Egypt isnt about to take on 20,000 heavily armed Hamasniks now, and then face a guerilla war even if they win the first phase. Right now they arent even doing a great job of keeping weapons out of Gaza, which is why folks want an international force to back them up.

A linkage between Jordan and the West Bank is far from out of the question, though.

[lord of the mark]

Im not sure this doesnt open some prospect for negotiations. Presumably Abbas, or whoever succeeds him as head of Fatah, will establish a govt in the West Bank with no Hamasniks in it, and will clamp down on any Hamas or IJ in the WB. If that were done it might make sense for Israel to relax some checkpoints, and otherwise take conciliatory steps toward the West Bank.

[Last Conformist]

So, this is the end of a unified PA?

[lord of the mark]

Originally posted by Last Conformist
So, this is the end of a unified PA?

Nothings impossible in the ME, but:

I cant see them trying for a unity coalition again.

I cant see Fatah returning to Gaza by force.

I cant see Hamas repeating their victory in the WB.

So it would seem like both will proclaim themselves the legitimate PA, Hamas based on the 2005 election under the Basic Law, Fatah based on its adherence to Oslo. I presume there will now be two political dynamics going on, and presumably two cabinets.

But its early yet, and I wouldnt want to be held to any predictions.

[Dinner]

I can see Fatah returning since they haven't been totally pushed out yet and all it takes is enough Fatah supporters from the west bank to push Hamas back. This can be done especially if Fatah was willing to move things up a notch and, say, use poison gas or something which Hamas won't be expecting.

[lord of the mark]

Originally posted by Oerdin
I can see Fatah returning since they haven't been totally pushed out yet and all it takes is enough Fatah supporters from the west bank to push Hamas back.

My impression is that these guy are pretty locally oriented, the security forces each side has are not like US brigade combat teams that can easily be deployed wherever one likes. Also Hamas has probably taken this opportunity to begin purging everyone on the ground who is friendly to Fatah (much as they did to collaborators with Israel during the intifadah), which will make it very difficult for Fatah forces to operate there.

Fatah would almost certainly be better advised husband its forces on the West Bank.

Now if in a year or two Gaza under Hamas rule is collapsing that would be different, but I was thinking in the short term.

This can be done especially if Fatah was willing to move things up a notch and, say, use poison gas or something which Hamas won't be expecting.

Sigh.

WTF, Oerdin?

[Az]

To be quite honest, the only reason I don't think that Fatah will use chemical weapons on Hamas is that they're too chicken**** to even destroy all of them in J&S/WB, where they can accomplish that.

[Last Conformist]

Originally posted by lord of the mark


Now if in a year or two Gaza under Hamas rule is collapsing that would be different, but I was thinking in the short term.

Wouldn't Gazah have to stand up first before it can collapse?

[lord of the mark]

Originally posted by Last Conformist

Wouldn't Gazah have to stand up first before it can collapse?

Im assuming that at least in terms of basic order, Gaza will stand up shortly, I mean whos going to challenge the Hamas security services?

[Dinner]

I'm just saying it is extremely easy to make chemical weapons and if you have the balls to do so then you can quickly kill off most of the opposition.

[lord of the mark]

Originally posted by Az
To be quite honest, the only reason I don't think that Fatah will use chemical weapons on Hamas is that they're too chicken**** to even destroy all of them in J&S/WB, where they can accomplish that.

Oh cmon, they will still be running the WB, will likely get the funds that had previously been promised to the "PA". If they use probably ineffective CW on Gaza, they would alienate the entire arab-muslim world, and make themselves unsupportable by Israel, the US, etc. It would be suicide.

Has any reputable source in Israel suggested that they would do this?

[lord of the mark]

Originally posted by Oerdin
I'm just saying it is extremely easy to make chemical weapons and if you have the balls to do so then you can quickly kill off most of the opposition.

How? With the PA air force? Sent flying over Israel from the WB? Or do they use the PA aircraft carriers?

They send a couple of suiciders, kill a few hundred (gaza doesnt have any subways, ya know) and then face the retribution of just about everyone.

Dont make sense to me, but what do I know.

[lord of the mark]

Originally posted by Az
To be quite honest, the only reason I don't think that Fatah will use chemical weapons on Hamas is that they're too chicken**** to even destroy all of them in J&S/WB, where they can accomplish that.

If youre not going to call it the West Bank, why not just say Yesha, who other than the Israelis and me do you think will recognize "J&S"?

"od yishama, bharei, Yehuda ...."

[Dinner]

No one has said they'd do this though if they had the balls to do it I'd say the US would do exactly what it has done in the past. Namely, look the other way. If Fatah framed this as the evil Islamic terrorist organization of Hamas was going to take over all of Palestine unless we did this then the US would do exactly what they did when Saddam used chemical weapons... Rationalize it away by saying Fatah is less of an evil then Hamas is (before it was Saddam is less of an evil then Iran is). Saddam gassed thousands and Reagan made sure the guy got any weapons he wanted. Sure, Reagan was a piece of dog **** but I have every expectation that future American presidents will be in the Bush/Reagan mold of immoral pieces of dog **** who would stab their own mothers in the name of real politick. It's rare to get someone like Clinton who actually stands up against state terrorist acts when they don't have to.