IRAQ: U.S. Intel Warned of Al-Qaida, Iranian Gains

[Victor Galis]

Originally posted by Kuciwalker

U.S. intelligence agencies warned senior members of the Bush administration in early 2003 that invading Iraq could create instability that would give Iran and al-Qaida new opportunities to expand their influence, according to an upcoming Senate report.

Um, duh? It also could have created a beacon of democracy in the Middle East, and a base from which we could place more pressure on Iran and AQ.

Yes, I could also concievably win the lottery by finding a discarded winning ticket.

Anyone that bought the admin's "they'll recieve us with open arms" BS is a ******.

[Kuciwalker]

Unlike dannubis, I'd expect you to see at least a glimmer of the point. Especially as it's been explained twice in this thread after that post.

[Victor Galis]

Originally posted by Kuciwalker
Unlike dannubis, I'd expect you to see at least a glimmer of the point. Especially as it's been explained twice in this thread after that post.

Your point is as laughable now as it was then. Just because certain outcomes are possible, it does not make it anywhere near as likely as the most likely outcomes. Bush decided to ignore the most likely outcomes and live in a magical happy dream world where all you need to do is topple Saddam and everything is awesome.

[Kuciwalker]

Your point is as laughable now as it was then. Just because certain outcomes are possible, it does not make it anywhere near as likely as the most likely outcomes.

Where does likelihood play into this? The entire story is "an intelligence officer predicted that the Iraq war might go badly."

[Elok]

Hell, IIRC I predicted the war would go badly, and I was about nineteen years old. I say IIRC because I can't recall when it was that I first read about the country's history and composition and said "WTF?" But I know it was before things went obviously downhill, and I know it was immediately apparent.

We've known all along: the country's composed of three groups, one of which (a minority) has been oppressing another (the majority) for several decades. Plus the remaining ethnic group is none too pleased with either of them and was looking for independence even under Saddam, who responded to complaints with gunfire. And the Turks next door hate that third ethnic group too. Let's face it, Bush may have picked the worst possible country in the ME (if not the world) to reform as a democracy. It was invented in the last century and has no identity save the one Saddam maintained by force. Only a total asshat would have given good odds on Operation Iraqi Utopia or whatever.

[Arrian]

I knew it. I'm surrounded by asshats. Keep firing, asshats! [/Spaceballs III, the search for liberal democracy in the Arab world]

-Arrian

[GePap]

Originally posted by Kuciwalker
Where does likelihood play into this? The entire story is "an intelligence officer predicted that the Iraq war might go badly."

It only serve to underscore how wrong the people who were wrong were. And still are.

[dannubis]

Originally posted by Kuciwalker
Unlike dannubis, I'd expect you to see at least a glimmer of the point. Especially as it's been explained twice in this thread after that post.

you make the naive comment of the year and somehow nobody has a clue :hm: