Sports math

[KrazyHorse]

If two teams are exactly evenly matched (all games played between them have an equal chance of being won by each team, all games independent of any previous results) then what is the probability that Team A will win the series 4-3?

I'm interested to see which of you fall into what I'm predicting will be the most common trap.

[DanielXY]

50%? (each team has the same chance to make the leading score after the 3:3 draw)

[KrazyHorse]

Your answer is incorrect, but not in the way I would have assumed.

[Dauphin]

Do all games in the series get played, or is it called off once a team gets to 4 wins?

[KrazyHorse]

I have never heard of a series which continued to be played after one team was mathematically eliminated and the other team assured of a win.

[Dauphin]

Happens in cricket.

England regularly win the last game of a series after being decisively beaten in the series.

[KrazyHorse]

Really?

Are those separate games, or is it when there are insufficient remaining overs to make up the runs?

[Lord Avalon]

How many games in the series?

[KrazyHorse]

If it's the latter, then there is a point to playing remaining overs because don't games get called for insufficient time and recorded as a draw (even if one team had been mathematically eliminated from winning)?

[Dauphin]

Separate games.

Australia won the last Ashes series 5-0. Best of five.

[KrazyHorse]

Originally posted by Lord Avalon
How many games in the series?

It's a best of 7 series

I thought that was clear, both from having been explicitly stated and because I asked "what are the chances that Team A wins the series 4-3".

[KrazyHorse]

Originally posted by Dauphin
Separate games.

Australia won the last Ashes series 5-0. Best of five.

That is very odd.

[Lord Avalon]

Maybe I'm looking too hard for a trick and overthinking it.

[KrazyHorse]

Just post your damn answer...

[Dauphin]

Originally posted by KrazyHorse
That is very odd.

Not considering the distances travelled to play the games, and the fans who have paid a lot to see the games of their team on tour.