India vs Pakistan

[Rufus T. Firefly]

Originally posted by Kuciwalker


If we sell arms to China I can only count it as a loss.

No, I meant both India and Pakistan...

[aneeshm]

Originally posted by joncha

Advocating genocide

Originally posted by Heresson

says aneeshm, the flower-sniffing humanitarian vegetarian

I'm not advocating anything, actually, just telling you that the Indian state will do what it has to.

[Cyclotron]

Originally posted by aneeshm
I'm not advocating anything, actually, just telling you that the Indian state will do what it has to.

Passively allowing genocide

[Sandman]

Originally posted by aneeshm
I'm not advocating anything, actually, just telling you that the Indian state will do what it has to.

Slaughtering 200 million people would probably make the rest of the world turn against India. You'd better kill them as well.

[Geronimo]

Originally posted by Rufus T. Firefly
Both China and the US

The US (and China) would abhor the huge waves of regional instability that ripple from such a conflict. Even if we speculate that there might be nutjobs in the US government who would cheer the eruption of such a war it would be a net loss in much the same way that the instability resulting from the Bush invasion of Iraq constitutes a net loss despite the support that invasion enjoyed in the administration.

Really what would either China or the US stand to gain from such a war regardless of it's outcome? The losses are clear and tangible the 'benefits' (selling weapons?) are marginal and unlikely. I'd also say it's quite unlikely that either the US or China would somehow extract more influence in the region from the war unless they took sides which would likely be both immensely stupid and costly.

[Geronimo]

Originally posted by Sandman


Slaughtering 200 million people would probably make the rest of the world turn against India. You'd better kill them as well.

where do you get that number? you're saying there are 200 million muslims in India who would side with pakistan in a war against India?

[Sandman]

That's including people in Pakistan.

[Geronimo]

Originally posted by Sandman
That's including people in Pakistan.

Ah. I assumed aneeshm meant that the Indians who sided with pakistan 5th column style would be killed. I hadn't considered that he was advocating mass extermination of every last pakistani man women and child. Maybe he can clarify.

[Rufus T. Firefly]

Originally posted by Geronimo


The US (and China) would abhor the huge waves of regional instability that ripple from such a conflict. Even if we speculate that there might be nutjobs in the US government who would cheer the eruption of such a war it would be a net loss in much the same way that the instability resulting from the Bush invasion of Iraq constitutes a net loss despite the support that invasion enjoyed in the administration.

Really what would either China or the US stand to gain from such a war regardless of it's outcome? The losses are clear and tangible the 'benefits' (selling weapons?) are marginal and unlikely. I'd also say it's quite unlikely that either the US or China would somehow extract more influence in the region from the war unless they took sides which would likely be both immensely stupid and costly.

Well, I was mostly joking, obviously, particularly with regards to the US. But China would actually benefit, since such a war, win or lose, would set India back enough to effectively end the possibility that they could compete with China for Asian dominance.

[Kuciwalker]

Originally posted by Rufus T. Firefly
No, I meant both India and Pakistan...

Ah. Still, we have plenty to gain from developing nations. To China, they're just competition.

[Pekka]

Considering the damage done if both launch nuclear weapons on each other, there's no winners except the rest of the world and Darwin.

[Geronimo]

Originally posted by Rufus T. Firefly


Well, I was mostly joking, obviously, particularly with regards to the US. But China would actually benefit, since such a war, win or lose, would set India back enough to effectively end the possibility that they could compete with China for Asian dominance.

I don't think it works like that. Unless China is going to go the old school route of militarily conquering or threatening to conquer it's Asian neighbors I can't see it's influence increasing just because India and pakistan bloodied themselves really good. In fact if it's not careful it could lose influence in such a war if pakistan were perceived as the loser of the war.

In the bigger picture I'm not sure if the concept of Asian dominance even has any meaning. The united states presumably would be expected to enjoy dominance of the Americas and yet Hugo Chavez still does his thing and there's no sign that the US can do anything to prevent any other countries from likewise adopting a hostile stance in the region.

[Pekka]

Rufus didn't necessarily mean a military dominance. China has always been a .. countries in Asia have been in their zone of influence rather than the opposite. There are many kinds of way to dominate than using military force.

Plus, Americas are hardly comparable to Asia.

[Geronimo]

Originally posted by Pekka
Considering the damage done if both launch nuclear weapons on each other, there's no winners except the rest of the world and Darwin.

unless they both massively expand their stockpiles and go thermonuclear besides I doubt the nuclear war would be that devastating. In fact I wouldn't be surprised if the first to launch would not launch a single nuke at cities but rather would entirely target the other sides suspected nuke locations. The fallout would ruin tourism and incur long term health care expenses but I doubt it would destroy either country.

[Geronimo]

Originally posted by Pekka
Rufus didn't necessarily mean a military dominance. China has always been a .. countries in Asia have been in their zone of influence rather than the opposite. There are many kinds of way to dominate than using military force.

Plus, Americas are hardly comparable to Asia.

fair enough. Maybe I just need a little better description of the nature of "Asian Dominance" and what it's good for. Do you think you could fill in the details?