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You Have A Man Of His Word In Your Midst. DanS.

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  • #31
    I probably will, if only because I have other reasons to follow the oil price, and I have the date written down...

    I'm still looking for somebody to bet against me that India will have a larger GDP (PPP) than China in 2050. All amounts entertained.
    I came upon a barroom full of bad Salon pictures in which men with hats on the backs of their heads were wolfing food from a counter. It was the institution of the "free lunch" I had struck. You paid for a drink and got as much as you wanted to eat. For something less than a rupee a day a man can feed himself sumptuously in San Francisco, even though he be a bankrupt. Remember this if ever you are stranded in these parts. ~ Rudyard Kipling, 1891

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    • #32
      Hmmm.

      I actually think it will be close.

      I'll bet you 100$ that China still has a larger GDP than India (PPP) for the year of 2050, simply because the thought of betting on something so ridiculously far away amuses me.
      12-17-10 Mohamed Bouazizi NEVER FORGET
      Stadtluft Macht Frei
      Killing it is the new killing it
      Ultima Ratio Regum

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      • #33
        2050
        grog want tank...Grog Want Tank... GROG WANT TANK!

        The trick isn't to break some eggs to make an omelette, it's convincing the eggs to break themselves in order to aspire to omelettehood.

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        • #34
          I'll probably still be alive then. Dan will be pushing it a little bit, but his chances are still pretty good.
          12-17-10 Mohamed Bouazizi NEVER FORGET
          Stadtluft Macht Frei
          Killing it is the new killing it
          Ultima Ratio Regum

          Comment

          • #35
            Well, the upside for the loser of the bet is that $100 in 2050 won't be a lot of money...

            -Arrian
            grog want tank...Grog Want Tank... GROG WANT TANK!

            The trick isn't to break some eggs to make an omelette, it's convincing the eggs to break themselves in order to aspire to omelettehood.

            Comment

            • #36
              It's a bet.

              Will continue to entertain bets on this question. Even large amounts. Let's talk legendary. My book is open.

              This is my longest-term bet so far. My previous longest is a 10-year Peak Oil bet (due to finish in 2014) for $1,000. I like these kinds of bets because they test crazy arguments very clearly. Not that this is an indication that KH holds these crazy arguments, of course.
              Last edited by DanS; April 3, 2007, 10:59.
              I came upon a barroom full of bad Salon pictures in which men with hats on the backs of their heads were wolfing food from a counter. It was the institution of the "free lunch" I had struck. You paid for a drink and got as much as you wanted to eat. For something less than a rupee a day a man can feed himself sumptuously in San Francisco, even though he be a bankrupt. Remember this if ever you are stranded in these parts. ~ Rudyard Kipling, 1891

              Comment

              • #37
                What are the terms of the Peak Oil bet, and who is the bet with?
                12-17-10 Mohamed Bouazizi NEVER FORGET
                Stadtluft Macht Frei
                Killing it is the new killing it
                Ultima Ratio Regum

                Comment

                • #38
                  My brother. I bet that global oil production would not peak within the next 10 years.

                  This is what passes for a family squabble in my parents' house.
                  I came upon a barroom full of bad Salon pictures in which men with hats on the backs of their heads were wolfing food from a counter. It was the institution of the "free lunch" I had struck. You paid for a drink and got as much as you wanted to eat. For something less than a rupee a day a man can feed himself sumptuously in San Francisco, even though he be a bankrupt. Remember this if ever you are stranded in these parts. ~ Rudyard Kipling, 1891

                  Comment

                  • #39
                    How will you determine if it's peaked or not? AFAIK there are significant annual fluctuations in global oil production year-over-year. If, for instance, 2013 is a record year fo global oil producuction, bt there is a global slowdown in 2014 then you might have one side claiming that 2013 was the year of "Peak Oil" while the other claims that it was merely a statistical fluctuation. Or do you plan to wait until 2020 to settle the bet with greater historical hindsight?
                    12-17-10 Mohamed Bouazizi NEVER FORGET
                    Stadtluft Macht Frei
                    Killing it is the new killing it
                    Ultima Ratio Regum

                    Comment

                    • #40
                      The last family squabble I had at my parents' house involved a fairly serious fistfight between my brother and myself.

                      Cocaine is a hell of a drug.
                      12-17-10 Mohamed Bouazizi NEVER FORGET
                      Stadtluft Macht Frei
                      Killing it is the new killing it
                      Ultima Ratio Regum

                      Comment

                      • #41
                        If it gets to be a real question, then we'll let it run for another couple of years just to make sure. Oil production doesn't vary that much.

                        The 10 years was chosen (by me at least) to allow for a correction after a business cycle intrusion.
                        I came upon a barroom full of bad Salon pictures in which men with hats on the backs of their heads were wolfing food from a counter. It was the institution of the "free lunch" I had struck. You paid for a drink and got as much as you wanted to eat. For something less than a rupee a day a man can feed himself sumptuously in San Francisco, even though he be a bankrupt. Remember this if ever you are stranded in these parts. ~ Rudyard Kipling, 1891

                        Comment

                        • #42
                          Could have told you KH. Stop using it now.

                          Comment

                          • #43
                            Originally posted by KrazyHorse
                            The last family squabble I had at my parents' house involved a fairly serious fistfight between my brother and myself.

                            Cocaine is a hell of a drug.
                            Sorry to hear that.

                            Peak Oil is a ridiculous position to take in our family because the family has several generations of experience in the oil patch. The underlying context could pay off handsomely for me in non-monetary ways. Imagine two Ford family brothers talking smack about the car industry. Not too far off, minus the quickly-dwindling billion dollar fortune, of course.
                            I came upon a barroom full of bad Salon pictures in which men with hats on the backs of their heads were wolfing food from a counter. It was the institution of the "free lunch" I had struck. You paid for a drink and got as much as you wanted to eat. For something less than a rupee a day a man can feed himself sumptuously in San Francisco, even though he be a bankrupt. Remember this if ever you are stranded in these parts. ~ Rudyard Kipling, 1891

                            Comment

                            • #44
                              Originally posted by Ecthy
                              Could have told you KH. Stop using it now.
                              I can handle my addictions. Some people can't.
                              12-17-10 Mohamed Bouazizi NEVER FORGET
                              Stadtluft Macht Frei
                              Killing it is the new killing it
                              Ultima Ratio Regum

                              Comment

                              • #45
                                Originally posted by KrazyHorse
                                The last family squabble I had at my parents' house involved a fairly serious fistfight between my brother and myself.

                                Cocaine is a hell of a drug.
                                the last setence could be taken many ways.

                                was the entire family on coke? were you on coke? was it your brother?
                                "I hope I get to punch you in the face one day" - MRT144, Imran Siddiqui
                                'I'm fairly certain that a ban on me punching you in the face is not a "right" worth respecting." - loinburger

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