Iran playing games

[Pekka]

Oh, it seems they have admitted that they were in Iranian space.. well.. that's their mistake. Of course they won't just let them go.

Oh well. I guess they'll return them soon. And perhaps they should be getting some more lessons with navigation.

[Solver]

Iran says that the sailors have admitted - there's no British confirmation so far, and the Brits maintain that it was in Iraqi waters. So right now it just boils down to whom you want to believe.

The UK hasn't been granted communication with the officers, after all, so they have no way of verifying whether they confessed in the first place.

[Pekka]

I stand corrected, Iranians say so.

[Sirotnikov]

Iran can't afford to lose what little diplomatic credibility they have anyway by not returning the sailors, which could formally be a casus belli. Not even their current leadership is nutty enough to actually want to be invaded.

It is not a casus beli, nor is any western state going to do anything about it, sadly.
No country but Israel defends its soldiers as much.

The USA had captives in Iran for years, and did nothing.
The UK will do what it can to solve this diplomatically. I hope they succeed, otherwise the soldiers are there for a long time...

The best method would be what was described by Oerdin - having the brits open fire on the attacking Iranians.

[Solver]

It is, I think, a formal casus belli if Iran illegally detains British soldiers. Of course, it won't cause any action. If the US or someone else is going to invade Iran, they'll do it anyway, if an invasion isn't planned, it won't be done just because of this. Still, it's not like the Western countries need any more reasons to be pissed at Iran.

[Pekka]

Siro, yeah, except that these soldiers aren't exactly hostages yet. If in fact they were in Iranian space, this would be accepted, included that they will be returned soon and unharmed.

And you have to consider the situation with Israel and the logistics. Consider where UK is located, now if you have some of your troops captured in Iran, you can't support the rescue operation with the whole army if needed or if **** hits the fan.

[ElTigre]

Interview with Commodore Nick Lambert, who is in charge of the Task Force:

http://uk.reuters.com/news/video/videoStory?videoId=46372

Q: Was there any suggestion that they were in Iranian waters, at the wrong place?

A: There is absolutely no doubt in my mind that they were in Iraqi territory waters. Equally the Iranians may well claim that they were in Iranian territory waters. The extension and definition of territory waters in this part of the world is very complicated... That is one of the reasons we're here.

Does the bolded part mean that he thinks the Iranians might have had a valid reason for detaining the sailors, or just that he expects Iran to make such a claim?

[Pekka]

Well, if the IRanians DIDN'T claim that, it would be snatching foreign troops outside her own borders. So damn well they need to make that excuse, or then it's just true. Impossible to tell right now.

[Sirotnikov]

pekka, solver - agreed.

And you have to consider the situation with Israel and the logistics. Consider where UK is located, now if you have some of your troops captured in Iran, you can't support the rescue operation with the whole army if needed or if **** hits the fan.

Eh - its not like the brits can't handle having a commando regiment clear through a foreign country thousands of miles away

[Sirotnikov]

And its not like there aren't already SAS teams in Iran.

There most probably are.

[Pekka]

Of course, but shoudl the mission go wrong, there's no back up. And because they know this, there's a big risk of getting more hostages.

It still is different when you know there's a standing army within a very short flight time, where all the resources are. Of course the distance does not matter when you want to do an insertion of a handful of special forces, but the implications are still not in the air should they fail.

OK, so say Iran says they won't return the prisoners, and they turn into hostages. Sure, send in the rescue team. But right now for example? They could be right even. We do not tolerate hostiles in our region and I think we have to give the same benefit to them as well.

[Sirotnikov]

I'd get special services to start tracking stuff.

Once the hostages get to tehran - it is impossible to get them out.

[Zkribbler]

The story now being put out by CNN:

The Brits were seized by six ships belonging to the Revolutionary Guard, not by Iranian government forces per se.

Members of the Revolutionary Guards are known to raise money via smuggling.

The Brits were in the area to interdict smuggling.

[Provost Harrison]

Originally posted by Ned
Where was the Brit air force?

I believe the correct term is "Royal Air Force, or RAF for short "

[Lonestar]

Originally posted by Oerdin
The Russian proposed wording would never fly as the US fleet keeps a lot of nukes on their ships. Then of course Israel won't give up their nukes.

Bush(41) issued an executive order to withdraw nukes from all USN surface Vessels, Oerdin.