Iran playing games

[DaShi]

I think Britain should take this to the EU.

[Pekka]

dashi, perfect example here. All these new battlegroups and whatnot. OK. Scenario. Iran kidnaps your troops. What do you do?



Even UN would use heavier words... can we have our troops back, pleaaaaseeeeeeeeeeeeeee?

[LordShiva]

[Sirotnikov]

Originally posted by Oerdin
The Russian proposed wording would never fly as the US fleet keeps a lot of nukes on their ships. Then of course Israel won't give up their nukes.

I think that wording isn't a big deal if you can keep a secret


I doubt Israel would mind, as it has always claimed it won't introduce nukes to the ME.

I am for some reason suspecting that Israel has its supply dismantled, so that in essence Israel has no 100% complete nuclear weapons, but could construct such, in a real hurry (days? hours?)

[SlowwHand]

That would make sense. Don't load until you're going hunting.

[Dinner]

A final sanctions vote at the UN for a rather weak set of sanctions was supposed to occur today but didn't. I imagine Iran thought they could capture this British ship to use as a bargaining chip or maybe to distract their population.

[GePap]

Originally posted by Oerdin
A final sanctions vote at the UN for a rather weak set of sanctions was supposed to occur today but didn't. I imagine Iran thought they could capture this British ship to use as a bargaining chip or maybe to distract their population.

Bargaining chip for what?

This very same thing happened a few months ago anyways. All that will happen is that the sailors will be returned safe in a few days.

[Dinner]

Originally posted by GePap


Bargaining chip for what?

This very same thing happened a few months ago anyways. All that will happen is that the sailors will be returned safe in a few days.

A chip which they can use to attempt to influence the timing of the sanctions vote there by possibly delaying the sanctions vote. They could hope that during the delay cracks might form in the positions of the great powers which they can exploit. Also it is good for grand standing to pump up their population; it demonstrates that Iran can do something to effect the great powers and isn't imputant.

[Dis]

I want to see the British kick some ass. They need to become badasses on the military stage again. Like the old days.

[Pekka]

The only reason I want to see the Brits beefing up again, but not doing war with Iran, is to have some set of strength in EU. Fiasco is the word that is written all over when serious things should happen and the EU core starts to **** up. That is, the 'safety guarantees' will fly right out of the window. So, you can trust Brits to act according to patterns, that is, it's predictable. That is, you can trust that should scenario X happen, they will go for that war path. EU in general? You never know. Most likely it will say sorry, and leave its member alone with some sympathy blankets dropped from the air.

[Sirotnikov]

Originally posted by GePap


Bargaining chip for what?

For Iranian Intelligence officers captured in Iraq by allied forces during the last few months.

And for the suspected defector, former chief of the Revolutionary Guard, Ali Reza Asgari, which is probably in US custody now.

[ElTigre]

The Iranians have transferred the sailors to Tehran and report that they have "confessed" violating the Iranian border.

Iran's military says Britons "confessed" entry
Sat Mar 24, 2007 10:10AM EDT

By Fredrik Dahl

TEHRAN (Reuters) - Iran's military said on Saturday British naval personnel seized in the Gulf confessed to entering its waters illegally, but Britain maintained they were detained inside Iraqi territory.

Iranian forces captured 15 British sailors and marines on Friday at the mouth of the Shatt al-Arab waterway, which marks the southern stretch of Iraq's border with Iran, sparking a diplomatic crisis at a time of increased tension over Tehran's nuclear standoff with the United States and other major powers.

The semi-official Fars news agency said they had been transferred to Tehran to explain their "aggressive action", but this could not be immediately confirmed. Fars also said the Britons included some women.

"These people are under investigation and have confessed they have violated the waters of the Islamic Republic of Iran," the ISNA news agency quoted a military official as saying.

The official, Deputy Commander Alireza Afshar, told state radio the Britons were in good health. "The investigation is going on and they are healthy and there is no problem."

He said they were detained on Friday by naval units of the Revolutionary Guards, the ideologically driven wing of the armed forces which has a separate command structure from the regular military.

Britain has not released the identities of the personnel.

"We still maintain they were in Iraqi waters when they were picked up," a British diplomat in Tehran said, adding he had no information they had been moved to the capital. Another British envoy earlier cited reports suggesting they had been taken to a military base in southwestern Iran after their capture.

ENVOYS SUMMONED

Britain said two boatloads of Royal Navy sailors and marines had searched a merchant vessel on a U.N. approved mission in Iraqi waters when Iranian gunboats encircled and captured them.

Iran's Foreign Ministry condemned what it called the illegal entry into Iranian waters as a "suspicious act", the official IRNA news agency said.

The incident sent oil prices up more than one percent to a three-month high on Friday. It took place a day after Iran launched a week of naval war games along its coast, including the Gulf's northern reaches which give access to the oil output of Iraq, Iran and Kuwait.

It also came ahead of Saturday's expected U.N. Security Council vote to impose new arms and financial sanctions on Iran over its refusal to suspend uranium enrichment program, which the West suspects is designed to make atom bombs.

Tehran denies the charge, saying it is only aimed at generating power in the world's fourth largest oil exporter.

The package of sanctions targets Iran's arms exports, its state-owned bank Sepah and the Revolutionary Guards.

In London, Britain summoned Iran's ambassador for a meeting on Saturday to demand the immediate release of the naval personnel, a Foreign Office spokeswoman said. It will be the second such meeting in London since Friday's incident.

The 27-nation European Union will also demand later on Saturday that Iran frees them, EU president Germany said.

Iranian state television said on Friday Iran had summoned the British charge d'affaires to protest over the incident.

It was similar to one in 2004 in which eight British servicemen spent three nights in the hands of Revolutionary Guards before being released unharmed. Iran said they had crossed into its waters, which Britain disputed.

(Additional reporting by Edmund Blair in Tehran and Michael Holden in London)

http://www.reuters.com/article/newsOne/idUSL2424490220070324

This could turn ugly quickly...

[Solver]

The UK probably was actually smart not to send more troops to the area. Given that Iraq is still a warzone, I'm sure some fighter planes could have been scrambled on short notice and sent to the area. But that had the potential of resulting in a standoff, which would not be good.

Iran can't afford to lose what little diplomatic credibility they have anyway by not returning the sailors, which could formally be a casus belli. Not even their current leadership is nutty enough to actually want to be invaded.

[Dinner]

So it seems they want to play this to the hilt for their domestic mob. Build up some patriotism prior to the sanctions getting imposed on Monday (they got pushed back from Friday because Iran's President started throwing a hissy fit about the UN).

[Pekka]

Maybe he thinks this will give them a new drive and unification, kind of like the hostage situation back in the days?

So he can get backing to his maniac fantasies? who knows. But he will be the first one to die.