Le Pen again?

[lord of the mark]

Voice Le Pen de ma tante.

Damned Franglais.

[lord of the mark]

Originally posted by Spiffor
[ he's also often considered as a Jew by antisemites

his one jewish grandparent was his maternal grandfather, a convert to Catholicism, who came from the Jewish community of Salonica.

Does MarkG know?

[Lawrence of Arabia]

Bayrou will make the second round ahead of Royal and he will beat Sarkozy in head to head.

[Fake Boris]

That's my feeling too.

[Dinner]

Does anyone think some (maybe many) of those 500 signatures came from Socialist Mayors who just want him to run so that Royal is more likely to win? Is there any truth to that?

[Kuciwalker]

Unless Le Pen makes it to the second round, how would it really help Royal?

[Dinner]

I guess not. Other then to give her more time to turn things around. It sounds like Sarkozy and the Democratic Union might win spots in the run off which would leave the socialists out in the cold. A move like this could weaken Sarkozy and make it a fight between Royal and the Democratic Union. Spiffor, how likely is that scenario?

[OzzyKP]

Originally posted by VJ
Yeah, me too. Too bad this didn't or isn't causing any backlash among Spiffor and people like him. It's seen as a politically legitimate way for keeping people with wrong opinions out. Stuff like this wouldn't work in America.

The US has very strict restrictions and limitations on third party candidates. Half of the reason for our entrenched two-party system is all the corrupt restrictions those two parties place to keep out competition.

Btw, who is Bayrou? I've never heard of him before and suddenly he is polling almost even with Royal and Sarkozy.

[Spiffor]

Originally posted by Oerdin
I guess not. Other then to give her more time to turn things around. It sounds like Sarkozy and the Democratic Union might win spots in the run off which would leave the socialists out in the cold.

That's a possibility, and a serious one. It's no certainty, but it's the Socialists' big fear.
Actually, some in the right also fear that the second round will be a Bayrou-Royal, because the race is highly volatile.

A move like this could weaken Sarkozy and make it a fight between Royal and the Democratic Union. Spiffor, how likely is that scenario?

Everything is possible at that point (except for the far-left becoming any relevant ).

The presence of Le Pen on the ballot might have several consequences:
- weakening Sarkozy, as he has a strong competition both to the centre and to the far-right. It might indeed lead him to lose as soon as the first round. OTOH, the presence of Le Pen will help push law and order issues on the agenda, on which Sarkozy is more popular than the other contenders: the French public being supportive of harsh policies, yet it is still being largely disgusted by Le Pen's personality.

- strengthening the two "legitimate" candidates. Very very few French citizens want to see Le Pen at the second round again, and more people will "rally around the flag". It will be useful for Ségolène, because the far left parties look like they have no chance to win whatsoever. It will also be useful for Sarkozy, as there are also a few small candidates of the right, who could eat some precious percents off Sarkozy, if there hadn't been such a "rally around the flag" effect.
As a result, Bayrou would lose some of his edge. And we've often seen, in French politics, the "third man" just fall inexorably shortly before the first round.

- strengthening Bayrou, if Ségolène continues to look as if she can't get to the second round. There's a strong "anybody but Sarkozy" line of thought among many French voters, and those people absolutely don't want to see a Sarkozy - Le Pen. This nightmare scenario is said often enough to be in everone's mind.
If Bayrou looks like the one that can be at the second round against Sarkozy, many people will just join the bandwagon, because he has a very good chance at defeating any opponent at the second round.

[Solly]

Bayrou sounds like the worst thing that could happen to France, a weak president with no party backing behind him. I'd prefer Sarkozy I think, although you can never tell with the French.

[Spiffor]

Originally posted by Doddler
Bayrou sounds like the worst thing that could happen to France, a weak president with no party backing behind him.

Actually, that would be great, as it'd considerably decrease the role of the president, at the benefit of the Parliament.

You guys have a strong Parliament, so you can't understand the pain in the ass it is, not to have one.

[Solly]

You have too many parties for it to work, though.

[Drake Tungsten]

If France is to become more like another country, it should be America, not Britain. Sarkozy knows this...

[Spiffor]

Here's why Bayrou will win

(in French, but you don't need to understand the language to get the gist)

Je veux Francois Bayrou
envoyé par yom_

[DinoDoc]

Originally posted by Spiffor
Here's why Bayrou will win

(in French, but you don't need to understand the language to get the gist)

It would have been better if they had done the video to the Shaft theme song.