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Global Warming and the Younger Dryas

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  • Global Warming and the Younger Dryas

    For those who dont know, the Younger Dryas was a ~1,000 period about 12-11,000 years ago in which the Earth cooled rapidly about a 1,000 years after the last ice age or advance had ended - the Younger Dryas was a reversal of the warming trend that marked the beginning of our current interglacial period.

    The Younger Dryas is believed to be a lesson for today, a case of history repeating itself. When the ice started receding vast glacial lakes in North America drained into the oceans with the northern Atlantic getting hit hard either shutting down or greatly reducing the warming effect of the gulfstream current traveling up the US eastern seaboard and heading for Iceland and Europe. As Arctic ice and the Greenland ice sheet continue to melt it is feared the influx of this cold fresh water will trigger something similar to the Younger Dryas.

    The problem of drawing too many conclusions from the Younger Dryas is that conditions are very different. Back then vast ice sheets still covered much of the northern hemisphere and sea levels were much lower with higher salinity levels as fresh water was still locked up in ice sheets. The Bering land bridge was probably still exposed so Arctic currents were different and the Mediterranean may have been blocked off at Gibralter or getting less flow from the Atlantic. Today the oceans have risen and taken in most of the fresh water formerly locked up in northern ice fields. The earth's tilt back then was less inclined, closer to the minimum tilt as opposed to the maximum we're closer to today.

    The Gulfstream is a product of the Earth's spin, winds coming off N America, and the configuration of continents with S America catching water coming around S Africa sending it northward to the equator where it flows west into the Caribbean and between Florida and Cuba into the N Atlantic on to Europe. That conveyor belt will exist regardless of any ice sheets or global warming, its just a matter of how far north the warmer water can get before sinking and returning southward. If the Arctic is warmer, the current travels further north. But the gradual melting of the Greenland ice sheet will inhibit the northern extent of the gulfstream current, even slowing the current. This delays the migration of the gulfstream up into the Arctic long enough for the next ice age to take hold.

    If not for the factors causing ice ages, it seems to me current conditions would eventually melt northern ice and the gulfstream would travel up into the Arctic bringing greater warmth to the northern latitudes all across the world. But that wont happen because just as the world warms up, the eccentricity of the earth's orbit increases and the axial tilt decreases so less sunlight hits the earth, especially at higher latitudes and the ice returns.

    If we could warm the world enough to melt northern ice before the orbit forces the next ice advance, could we reduce the impact of ice ages? If we could "help" the gulfstream carry more, warmer water even further north toward the Arctic, would that help prevent or reduce the growth of ice sheets?

  • #2
    Al Gore goes into this in a fair amount of detail in An Inconvient Truth. That said I can remember my oceanography professor lecturing about this at the University of California Santa Barbara back in 1998. I also had a whole class just on the changes which occured as the pleistocene changed to the holocene including coverage of the older and younger dryas.

    It's actually interesting stuff from a geologic and climatic point of view.
    Try http://wordforge.net/index.php for discussion and debate.

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    • #3
      It is more than "interesting" for me as an Icelander reading these kinds of "Ragnarrök" scenarios predicting "Fimbulvetur". If the Gulf Stream stops Iceland will be ICEland. But who cares anyway? We will all be dead when this happens.

      Bring on the big SUV's! More consumption! More consumption!
      When it all comes to it, life is nothing more than saltfish - Salka Valka

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      • #4
        Originally posted by Oerdin
        Al Gore goes into this in a fair amount of detail in An Inconvient Truth. That said I can remember my oceanography professor lecturing about this at the University of California Santa Barbara back in 1998. I also had a whole class just on the changes which occured as the pleistocene changed to the holocene including coverage of the older and younger dryas.

        It's actually interesting stuff from a geologic and climatic point of view.
        He also implicitly blames katrina on GHG emissions too. A complete fraud - try examining his business attachments if you wanted to learn a little about where Gore is coming from.
        www.my-piano.blogspot

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        • #5
          It's all about contributory factors...impossible to pinpoint. The point with New Orleans was the neglect of the defences...storms of that strength are certainly not beyond reason in that area of the world.
          Speaking of Erith:

          "It's not twinned with anywhere, but it does have a suicide pact with Dagenham" - Linda Smith

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          • #6
            Originally posted by Provost Harrison
            It's all about contributory factors...impossible to pinpoint. The point with New Orleans was the neglect of the defences...storms of that strength are certainly not beyond reason in that area of the world.
            Well, he didn't explicitly blame Katrina on GHG emissions. But he did point to the folly of not preparing for disasters such as Katrina, and used the image of a hurricane in the background while he continued about GHGs.

            When the science was ambiguous about such effects (and has now been settled to show GHG will not significantly increase hurricanes) this was sloppy and leading, especially when you consider how thick the intended audience was.
            www.my-piano.blogspot

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            • #7
              Originally posted by Doddler
              He also implicitly blames katrina on GHG emissions too. A complete fraud - try examining his business attachments if you wanted to learn a little about where Gore is coming from.
              (1) Assuming the vague reference you make to unspecified "business attachments" has some validity, this simply means one would look at Gore's statements with a suspecious eye--not that his statements are false.

              (2) In the past, I've supplied a link to a governmental agency which opines that hurricanes have increased in ferocity due to global warming. And there is no dispute that the ferocity of Katrina was one of the determining factors on the levee breach.

              (3) GHG contribute to global warming.

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              • #8
                Originally posted by Zkribbler


                (1) Assuming the vague reference you make to unspecified "business attachments" has some validity, this simply means one would look at Gore's statements with a suspecious eye--not that his statements are false.

                (2) In the past, I've supplied a link to a governmental agency which opines that hurricanes have increased in ferocity due to global warming. And there is no dispute that the ferocity of Katrina was one of the determining factors on the levee breach.

                (3) GHG contribute to global warming.
                1) Strange how this isn't how GHG believers see the other side's financiers.

                2) Care to remind us what category Katrina was when it made landfall?

                3) But how much And how come they didn't in the 1940s-1970s. And what caused the even more "unprecedented" increase in temperatures during the Mediaeval Warm Period?

                www.my-piano.blogspot

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                • #9
                  Originally posted by Zkribbler


                  (1) Assuming the vague reference you make to unspecified "business attachments" has some validity, this simply means one would look at Gore's statements with a suspecious eye--not that his statements are false.

                  (2) In the past, I've supplied a link to a governmental agency which opines that hurricanes have increased in ferocity due to global warming. And there is no dispute that the ferocity of Katrina was one of the determining factors on the levee breach.

                  (3) GHG contribute to global warming.
                  So a government agency responsible for getting it's funding increased says that its work is more important than ever. Then it MUST be true!

                  Just like the cops telling us about crime rate increasing, when in fact its going down...

                  or the flu pandemic hysteria promulgated by the disease agencies trying to get more funding for themselves. "The pandemic is imminent! Millions could die! Send your check or money order to..."
                  Best MMORPG on the net: www.cyberdunk.com?ref=310845

                  An eye for an eye leaves the whole world blind. -Gandhi

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                  • #10
                    Originally posted by Doddler
                    He also implicitly blames katrina on GHG emissions too. A complete fraud - try examining his business attachments if you wanted to learn a little about where Gore is coming from.
                    You're an idiot.
                    Try http://wordforge.net/index.php for discussion and debate.

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                    • #11
                      And there is no dispute that the ferocity of Katrina was one of the determining factors on the levee breach.
                      I heard Katrina was a slow moving hurricane with alot of moisture and was actually inland away from NO when the levee broke. Every documentary I've seen on past climates says storms are worse during ice ages and that hurricane activity was higher during the mini ice age. The reason for this peculiarity is that hurricanes need temperature differences, a naturally occuring heat inversion around the 20th parallel inhibits hurricanes because the warmer atmosphere in the path of the hurricane interferes with the storm's structure. It makes sense when you consider that hurricanes are just a way the planet distributes heat, if the atmosphere is more uniform hurricanes lose fuel.

                      And I'm tired of the Gore crowd showing ice berg calving as if its evidence of something more than gravity.

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                      • #12
                        Originally posted by Doddler
                        Al Gore goes into this in a fair amount of detail in An Inconvient Truth.
                        He also implicitly blames katrina on GHG emissions too
                        Actual quote from Gore saying this in the movie, please?

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