Document: Iran funding both sides of Iraqi civil war

[Darius871]

Originally posted by Provost Harrison
I was never aware it was a secret

Basic intarweb etiquette aside,

Originally posted by Sirotnikov
i could tell you if you pm me

should have made it obvious.

[Provost Harrison]

Originally posted by Darius871
Basic intarweb etiquette aside,

Basic what?

[lord of the mark]

its not to late to delete the post.

[Provost Harrison]

Oh, I'm afraid it is...the web fairies have taken the edit button away.

[Sirotnikov]

Originally posted by Heresson
Ha ha ha now syrian services' job of targetting Eli will be much easier!

Pah!

Eli is of no importance

[germanos]

Originally posted by lord of the mark


fixed.

indeed

[Heresson]

Originally posted by Sirotnikov

Pah!

Eli is of no importance

Well, we'll shoot him down anyway. If Israel does not collapse, we were wrong... but it was worth to try, wasn't it!

[Zkribbler]

I'm suprised Iran would be supporting al Qaeda. Al Qaeda has already announced that, once it's successful in driving the U.S. out of Iraq, al Qaeda will seek to spread its jihad to neighboring states -- which of course would include Shi'ite Iran.

[GePap]

So of all the papers the expert would go to, he goes to the NY Sun?

Yeah, a "smoking gun."

[GePap]

And to comment on this part of the article:

Mr. White added, "One problem that we all have is that people consistently conduct analysis assuming that the actor is going to act predictably or rationally based on their overall mindset or ideology. Sometimes people don't.

"One example of a mindset that may hinder analysis of Iranian involvement is the belief that Iran would never have any dealings with militant Sunni Arabs. But they allowed hundreds of Al Qaeda operatives to escape from Afghanistan across their territory in 2002," he said.

How would Iran letting AQ members flee through their territory not be rational?

While AQ might see the Iranians as heretics, I think the Iranians probably have correctly pegged these guys as incapable of ever coming even close to being a significant threat to their power, but at the same time they are a great irritant to their main enemies and comptetitors in the region (The US and Saudi Arabia), so while Iran may not have an interest in outright aiding, funding, or arming them, they do have an interest in not getting in their way as they attack their enemies. Enemy of my enemy and all that.

[Ogie Oglethorpe]

Remind me again why Iran has a vested interest in Iraqi stability. That being the ultimate carrot for entering into negotiations with them.

[Sirotnikov]

Originally posted by Zkribbler
I'm suprised Iran would be supporting al Qaeda. Al Qaeda has already announced that, once it's successful in driving the U.S. out of Iraq, al Qaeda will seek to spread its jihad to neighboring states -- which of course would include Shi'ite Iran.

Uhm, WRONG.

The first targetted countries would be sunni atheist led countries, such as Jordan and Syria. While Iran is Shiite, it is not atheist.

It is also quite more threatening (more powerful). Any Al-Qaeda rule over Iraq, but have to be with Iran's blessing, therefore Iran could not be their next target.

[lord of the mark]

Originally posted by Sirotnikov

Uhm, WRONG.

The first targetted countries would be sunni atheist led countries, such as Jordan and Syria. While Iran is Shiite, it is not atheist.

It is also quite more threatening (more powerful). Any Al-Qaeda rule over Iraq, but have to be with Iran's blessing, therefore Iran could not be their next target.

these discussions would go so much better if folks played Paradox games, like EU2. if youre AQ and you take Iraq, you first want to take over same religion same culture provinces before expanding further.

Similarly to those folks who deduce Iranian moderation on Iraq from their cooperative behavior wrt Iran. You want to expand towards high value provinces, not low value ones - in low value ones you will be cautious to keep your BB down, but to take higher value provinces, you will risk the BB. Iraq is higher value than Afghan, and has more (and better positioned) same religion provinces. Also maybe they expect an event that will give them Arab as a national culture (one could debate whether Dari Afghan provinces should be considered Farsi culture - id argue no - culture for therse purposes is difficulty in ruling, not linguistic affinity)

[Darius871]

Originally posted by GePap
So of all the papers the expert would go to, he goes to the NY Sun?

Yeah, a "smoking gun."

My god, it took a whole 24 posts for someone to finally reject the source?

You polytubbies are getting lazy.

[Sirotnikov]

NY Sun is a perfect newspaper and I trust it completely.



I don't think it is likely it lied about talking to Intelligence and government sources.