Virtual Taliban state in Northern Pakistan.

[Sava]

nobody liked my virtual taliban

[Dinner]

Originally posted by Ned
Oerdin, I thing the Sunnis are going to win, not the Shi'ites.

And you base this on? They do have lots of guys who used to be in the old military which is a plus but they are outnumbered 4:1, the government (read: Shi'a) have access to heavy weapons which the Sunni don't, and all of the oil (which continues to make up 70% of the national economy) is located in nonSunni dominated areas. The Shi'a-Kurd axis has all the money, most of the guns, and far more people.

[DRoseDARs]

Originally posted by Sava
nobody liked my virtual taliban

Because you're a terrorist and terrorists are nothing to laugh at.

[LordShiva]

Originally posted by Oerdin
In the way that it was the only part of the Mogul Empire, in its final days, which didn't get obsorbed into a foreign empire (Russia or British). The old capital and what is now Afghanistan were allowed to reorganize into an independent country. Sure, the British half heartedly tried to take it over but that was mostly British forces in India going against the wishes of London who wanted to keep Afghanistan independent so it could act as a buffer state between Russia and the UK. Siam (Thailand) also retained its independence for the same reason namely keeping a buffer state between two empires to prevent conflict between those empires.

But only Babur, the first Mughal emperor, viewed Kabul as even just his cultural capital; the core of the empire was really in N. India and Pakistan, ruled, variously, out of Delhi, Agra, or Fatehpur Sikri, if I remember my middle school history. Modern Afghanistan isn't so much the Mughal's successor state as the state which rules over land that was once Mughal.

[Dr Strangelove]

Originally posted by Oerdin


And you base this on? They do have lots of guys who used to be in the old military which is a plus but they are outnumbered 4:1, the government (read: Shi'a) have access to heavy weapons which the Sunni don't, and all of the oil (which continues to make up 70% of the national economy) is located in nonSunni dominated areas. The Shi'a-Kurd axis has all the money, most of the guns, and far more people.

So long as 'the coalition' maintains a presence in Iraq the Shia will have a bit of a disadvantage - those who follow the factions included in the government will tend to not use the genocidal terror tactics being used by the Sunni insurgents. Once the coalition leaves I suspect that the kid gloves will eventually come off and then the Sunni insurgents will be surprised to discover how precarious their position really is.

[KrazyHorse]

those who follow the factions included in the government will tend to not use the genocidal terror tactics being used by the Sunni insurgents

They just use proxies to accomplish the same things.

There was a good article in Time (?) last week about a guy who is no longer "officially" part of Sadr's militia who commits exactly that type of atrocity. He's still based out of Sadr city and he still seems to be getting financial support from Sadr.

[Ned]

Originally posted by Oerdin


And you base this on? They do have lots of guys who used to be in the old military which is a plus but they are outnumbered 4:1, the government (read: Shi'a) have access to heavy weapons which the Sunni don't, and all of the oil (which continues to make up 70% of the national economy) is located in nonSunni dominated areas. The Shi'a-Kurd axis has all the money, most of the guns, and far more people.

The Sunnis have better resources than the Shi'ites nontheless:

"Saudis Say They Might Back Sunnis if U.S. Leaves Iraq
By HELENE COOPER
WASHINGTON, Dec. 12 — Saudi Arabia has told the Bush administration that it might provide financial backing to Iraqi Sunnis in any war against Iraq’s Shiites if the United States pulls its troops out of Iraq, according to American and Arab diplomats.

King Abdullah of Saudi Arabia conveyed that message to Vice President Dick Cheney two weeks ago during Mr. Cheney’s whirlwind visit to Riyadh, the officials said. During the visit, King Abdullah also expressed strong opposition to diplomatic talks between the United States and Iran, and pushed for Washington to encourage the resumption of peace talks between Israel and the Palestinians, senior Bush administration officials said.

The Saudi warning reflects fears among America’s Sunni Arab allies about Iran’s rising influence in Iraq, coupled with Tehran’s nuclear ambitions. King Abdullah II of Jordan has also expressed concern about rising Shiite influence, and about the prospect that the Shiite-dominated government would use Iraqi troops against the Sunni population.

A senior Bush administration official said Tuesday that part of the administration’s review of Iraq policy involved the question of how to harness a coalition of moderate Iraqi Sunnis with centrist Shiites to back the Iraqi government led by Prime Minister Nuri Kamal al-Maliki.

The Saudis have argued strenuously against an American pullout from Iraq, citing fears that Iraq’s minority Sunni Arab population would be massacred. Those fears, United States officials said, have become more pronounced as a growing chorus in Washington has advocated a draw-down of American troops in Iraq, coupled with diplomatic outreach to Iran, which is largely Shiite.

“It’s a hypothetical situation, and we’d work hard to avoid such a structure,” one Arab diplomat in Washington said. But, he added, “If things become so bad in Iraq, like an ethnic cleansing, we will feel we are pulled into the war.”

http://www.nytimes.com/2006/12/13/world/middleeast/13saudi.html?_r=1&th=&oref=slogin&emc=th&pagewanted=print

[Arrian]

Yes, and if the Saudis openly back the Sunnis, Iran can step up its support for the Shiites.

It could be a nice regional cluster****, couldn't it? Yay!

-Arrian

[KrazyHorse]

Proxy wars! And proxies of proxies!!!

Maybe we can turn the ME into subsaharan Africa. They'll be too busy killing each other to try to kill us.

[lord of the mark]

Originally posted by KrazyHorse

those who follow the factions included in the government will tend to not use the genocidal terror tactics being used by the Sunni insurgents

They just use proxies to accomplish the same things.

There was a good article in Time (?) last week about a guy who is no longer "officially" part of Sadr's militia who commits exactly that type of atrocity. He's still based out of Sadr city and he still seems to be getting financial support from Sadr.

Ramo says that Sadr doesnt control the Mahdi army any more.

[Dinner]

Now we can have everyone sponsor their own little terrorist group in Iraq. Isn't that nice? Damn, I'm so happy Bush needlessly invaded Iraq.