Cease Fires Are Stupid

[Dinner]

Slate ran an article last weekend about Jordian's King saying it looks like three different civil wars might be breaking out in the middle east. One in each of Iraq, Palestine, and Lebannon.

[Arrian]

There was also a worrisome article about Lebanon. edit: same one?

I'm really not very fond of this whole new "hand Iraq over to Iran and Syria" thing (which also impacts Lebanon, due to Syria's involvement in Leb). Regarding that, it's not often that I agree with Hitchens, but I'm finding myself nodding along with him when he gets going on the Baker crowd and their apparently strategy to "fix" things.

-Arrian

[lord of the mark]

Originally posted by Arrian
Is there some concern about a Pal civil war between the PLO guys and Hamas?

-Arrian

King Abdullah of Jordan has that concern, as do many Pals. Thats why Abbas spent months trying to negotiate a deal with Hamas on a reshaped Pal govt. He said today, that the negotiations were over (IE theyd failed) and he would take steps anyway (IE probably call a referendum that would endorse him forming an emergency non-party govt, which referendum Hamas will denounce as a violation of the PA charter - if neither side blinks, then its civil war)

Im not sure "concern" is the right word for the attitude of folks on the Israeli side - more like a belief that its about time, and is a necessary step for Abbas to assert his power and make peace. (thats among the doves - the hawks dont trust Abbas, and so see no benefit even from him winning a civil war) Of course war is inherently unpredictable, and always risky.

[Arrian]

Gotcha.

By the way, as you can see from my last post, I'm coming around to your PoV on Baker, et al.

-Arrian

[lord of the mark]

Originally posted by Arrian
Gotcha.

By the way, as you can see from my last post, I'm coming around to your PoV on Baker, et al.

-Arrian

Iraq is such a complex and difficult situation, right now, that Id be hard pressed either to congratulate you on that, or to say "i told you so". Anything anyone says is likely to be disproven by the next days headlines.

Personally I will reserve judgement on Bakers recommendations till I see them. Though my general emotional reaction to Bakerism stands.

[Arrian]

It's not just Iraq, though... if we cozy up to Syria & Iran w/o getting concessions from them, what does that do to Lebanon and the Israeli/Pal situation?

Anyway, I agree that nothing is set in stone yet, and there is a lot of speculation going on. We shall see. But I'm dubious about getting into bed with Syria. She's ugly!

-Arrian

[lord of the mark]

Originally posted by Arrian
It's not just Iraq, though... if we cozy up to Syria & Iran w/o getting concessions from them, what does that do to Lebanon and the Israeli/Pal situation?

Anyway, I agree that nothing is set in stone yet, and there is a lot of speculation going on. We shall see. But I'm dubious about getting into bed with Syria. She's ugly!

-Arrian

If we could get Syria to break with Iran, and didnt have to hand over Leb to them, it just might work. But that means negotiating with Syria from a position of strength, not weakness. Thats why I see the Olmert speech, and Abbas statements, as important, as it could reduce Syrian leverage, and make talks with them actually a positive (but not for Syrian democrats - tough luck guys, youre gonna have to wait another 20 years for another chance)

[Dis]

ahh but Israel should be rebuilding as well. They don't need to really rebuild, but reorganize. They got their ass handed to them. Well not really. But they were unimpressive early this year. They need to develop some better tactics and strategies.

[Q Classic]

What I like is that should Israel actually try to defend themselves against those fringe group nutters...

...people will pile onto Israel about how atrocious and wrong their actions are.

[Seeker]

"More to the point, Palestinians are stupid"

I think it is more accurate to say that the Palestinians are really really angry (and really really weak), not 'stupid'.

The Israelis are not 'evil'. They are ALSO really really angry and much more powerful.

The problem is lots of anger rather than intelligence or even good vs evil.

[Dinner]

If Iran and Syria cover for a US/UK withdrawl from Iraq then how do you not see a break up of Iraq? It's clear Iran will have control or at least major influence over the Shi'a areas, Syria over the Sunni areas, and the Kurds will want nothing to do with either instead seeing them as foreign powers who occupy rightfully Kurdish areas. That seems like a natural breakdown of a unified Iraqi state with three puppet states. It's not like the US/UK will be egar to pressure kurds into joining an Iranian/syrian domenated statenor would the kurds want to be a part of it.

Given that the Kurds have an independent force of light infantry, the Peshmerga, who are dedicated to Kurdish independence it doesn't seem like Iran or Syria could subjectate them without a very long gurilla war (along the lines which Turkey has been fighting for 25 years).

[SlowwHand]

If someone was trying to kill all the Seeker family for 5000 years, I think you'd be a little perturbed, too.

[Dinner]

Naw, the Palestinians are stupid. There is no other logical explination for why Palestinains would so frequently act against their own best interests.

[Seeker]

"If someone was trying to kill all the Seeker family for 5000 years, I think you'd be a little perturbed, too."

err...I'm sorry but which side are you pro and anti again? It's not clear from this post. In fact your post looks kinda like a non sequitor or something.

[SlowwHand]

I think that the Israelis are ****ing insane to accept a Cease Fire. Is that pretty clear? Everytime they do, **** hits the fan...still.