"The threshold of an historic crossroads"

[lord of the mark]

http://www.jpost.com/servlet/Satellite?apage=1&cid=1162378493305&pagename=JPost%2FJPArticle%2FShowFull

[germanos]

more likely to be the threshold of a historic fly-over.

[OzzyKP]

I read it.

[Spiffor]

Good projects get announced.

However, if this speech was intended for an Arab audience (I mean the Arab street, not diplomats), it will fail miserably. The style may be good for the Israeli street, but it's horrible for the Arab street.

[Sandman]

Time passed, Arab animosity and terrorism resulted in more war, and some 40 years ago, Israel was again faced with the difficult choice: many good people advocated the vision of Greater Israel.

Still coddling the lunatics, I see. The Israeli disease.

[Jaguar]

Crossroads was an excellent film.

[Arrian]

If a new Palestinian government is established - a government which will be committed to the principles of the Quartet, implement the Roadmap and bring about the release of Gilad Shalit, I will invite Abu-Mazen to meet with me immediately, in order to conduct a real, open, genuine and serious dialogue between us.

In the framework of this dialogue, and in accordance with the Roadmap, you will be able to establish an independent and viable Palestinian State, with territorial contiguity in Judea and Samaria - a State with full sovereignty and defined borders.

In this framework, the borders of the State of Israel will be defined, in accordance with President Bush's April 14th, 2004 letter to Prime Minister Ariel Sharon.

These borders will be different from the territories currently under Israel's control.

I understand the importance which the Palestinian society attributes to the issue of prisoners.

I hereby declare that when Gilad Shalit is released and returned to his family, safe and sound, the Government of Israel will be willing to release numerous Palestinian prisoners - including ones who were sentenced to lengthy prison terms - in order to increase the trust between us and prove that our hand is truly extended in genuine peace.

There's the offer in a nutshell. Also an offer to help them set up something resembling an economy.

However, this:

We, the State of Israel, will agree to the evacuation of many territories and communities which were established therein. This is extremely difficult for us, akin to the Parting of the Red Sea, but we will bear it, in exchange for true peace.

You must stop the terror, violence and efforts to harm Israeli citizens in the south, center and north, recognize our right to live in peace and security next to you, and relinquish your demand for the realization of the right of return. It is a right goal, a natural goal, an attainable goal.

Is gonna go over like a lead ballon.

-Arrian

[Eli]

Bla bla bla. The usual attempts of politicians in trouble to direct attention somewhere else.

[Spiffor]

Originally posted by Eli
Bla bla bla. The usual attempts of politicians in trouble to direct attention somewhere else.

What do you mean?

From your post, and from my limited understanding of Israeli politics, I guess you mean:

"Olmert is in big trouble, after his botching of the Lebanon war and of the attacks on the Palestinian territories. Everybody wants his head. He's trying to bounce back by giving a speech that sounds important, but that is meaningless in reality".

Is that right?

[lord of the mark]

several things are going on at once.

1. Yes Olmert is in trouble cause of the mistakes in the Hezb war, and needs a new focus

2. Israel has no appetite for further unilateral withdrawls, the policy that Olmert was elected to implement. He has to have a diff policy. He either moves towards negotiations, or towards staying in territories, without negotiations for the time being, hoping something will somewho change for the better (the Likud approach.

3. The boycott of Hamas has, more or less, worked, with the Pal polity finally realizing that A. Hamas wont accept the road map or Oslo and that B. As long as thats the case, the Pals have no hope. There is maneuevering to have a cabinet of independents, that would allow Abbas to negotiate. But Abbas needs a word from Israel, to strengthen his position.

4. The growing militancy of Iran, its nuke program, its apparent successes in Iraq and Leb, have frightened the Arab states, not only Egypty and Jordan, but esp Saudi and the Gulfies. It makes sense for them to want an alliance with Israel, but they cant do that while the Pal issue festers. Similarly it makes sense for Israel to enter such an alliance.

5. The US badly needs a shot in the arm for its regional diplomacy, to strengthen its own hand wrt Iran and Syria. This is esp true if the US is going to be talking to those two states about Iraq.


So its a perfect storm. The speech lets Olmert tell Israelis what his new course is. They can buy it or not, but they needed to know. It reaches out a hand to Abbas - maybe the Pal street wont hear it clearly, but the Pal elite will. More importantly, the Saudis and Gulfies will hear it. The Euros, whos support for the Hamas boycott was important, but which is always unsteady, needed to be reassured that the boycott is leading to peace, or at least that Israel is doing what it can. The Iranians and Syrians needed to hear that they cannot count on the Pal issue to gain them support in the region, or to prevent a grand alliance against them. And the US needed to hear that Israel was taking steps in support of the US diplomatic and military initiatives in the region.

[Eli]

"Olmert is in big trouble, after his botching of the Lebanon war and of the attacks on the Palestinian territories. Everybody wants his head. He's trying to bounce back by giving a speech that sounds important, but that is meaningless in reality".

Is that right?

Yes. The Israeli government is not strong enough to control events. All they do now is damage minimization, trying to somehow benefit from the situation. Domestic political problems and a technical screw up in some artillery system which killed 20 civilians are the real reasons behind this speech and the latest moves.

I mean, wasn't it obvious that one day one shell will miss it's target and kill lots of civilians? To anyone with a bit of brains in the head it was. So why is this event influencing policy?

[lord of the mark]

Originally posted by Eli

"Olmert is in big trouble, after his botching of the Lebanon war and of the attacks on the Palestinian territories. Everybody wants his head. He's trying to bounce back by giving a speech that sounds important, but that is meaningless in reality".

Is that right?

Yes. The Israeli government is not strong enough to control events. All they do now is damage minimization, trying to somehow benefit from the situation. Domestic political problems and a technical screw up in some artillery system which killed 20 civilians are the real reasons behind this speech and the latest moves.

I mean, wasn't it obvious that one day one shell will miss it's target and kill lots of civilians? To anyone with a bit of brains in the head it was. So why is this event influencing policy?

you dont think the evolving political situation in the PA and the Bush visit have anything to do with it?

[Ninot]

Originally posted by Jaguar
Crossroads was an excellent film.

USA! USA!

[Elok]

Crossroads don't have thresholds. Your metaphor-mixing is shameful, sirrah!

[Ned]

Even if most Arab states want peace because of the growing power of Iran and are willing to restrain most Palestinian terror factions, can't Iran still prevent peace due to its own influence with Sryia, Hezbollah and perhaps other terror factions?

Can Israel settle with Palestine without the cooperation of Syria, especially on the ROR issue?