Election over; now it's Iran's turn!

[Dis]

Originally posted by techumseh
And if I'm right?

we'd actually have something good to watch on tv. And I actually support an Israeli strike on Iran. I even support a U.S. strike on Iran (not invading of course).

[DRoseDARs]

Iran is 10 years away from having any ability to produce nukes. How about focusing on the more immediate dangers of North Korea's or Pakistan's programs? North Korea is desperate for money and Pakistan is barely containing Al Qaeda influence.

[Drake Tungsten]

Iran is 10 years away from having any ability to produce nukes.

You sound awfully sure about that...

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/11/14/AR2006111400230_pf.html

http://www.spiegel.de/international/0,1518,448046,00.html

[DRoseDARs]

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2005/08/01/AR2005080101453.html

Iran Is Judged 10 Years From Nuclear Bomb
U.S. Intelligence Review Contrasts With Administration Statements

By Dafna Linzer
Washington Post Staff Writer
Tuesday, August 2, 2005; Page A01

A major U.S. intelligence review has projected that Iran is about a decade away from manufacturing the key ingredient for a nuclear weapon, roughly doubling the previous estimate of five years, according to government sources with firsthand knowledge of the new analysis.

The carefully hedged assessments, which represent consensus among U.S. intelligence agencies, contrast with forceful public statements by the White House. Administration officials have asserted, but have not offered proof, that Tehran is moving determinedly toward a nuclear arsenal. The new estimate could provide more time for diplomacy with Iran over its nuclear ambitions. President Bush has said that he wants the crisis resolved diplomatically but that "all options are on the table."


The new National Intelligence Estimate includes what the intelligence community views as credible indicators that Iran's military is conducting clandestine work. But the sources said there is no information linking those projects directly to a nuclear weapons program. What is clear is that Iran, mostly through its energy program, is acquiring and mastering technologies that could be diverted to bombmaking.

The estimate expresses uncertainty about whether Iran's ruling clerics have made a decision to build a nuclear arsenal, three U.S. sources said. Still, a senior intelligence official familiar with the findings said that "it is the judgment of the intelligence community that, left to its own devices, Iran is determined to build nuclear weapons."

At no time in the past three years has the White House attributed its assertions about Iran to U.S. intelligence, as it did about Iraq in the run-up to the March 2003 invasion. Instead, it has pointed to years of Iranian concealment and questioned why a country with as much oil as Iran would require a large-scale nuclear energy program.

The NIE addresses those assertions and offers alternative views supporting and challenging the assumptions they are based on. Those familiar with the new judgments, which have not been previously detailed, would discuss only limited elements of the estimate and only on the condition of anonymity, because the report is classified, as is some of the evidence on which it is based.

-snip-

[Drake Tungsten]

The carefully hedged assessments, which represent consensus among U.S. intelligence agencies, contrast with forceful public statements by the White House.

In other words, they really aren't sure either...

[KrazyHorse]

You know what they say you can be sure of...

But somewhere in the 8-10 year range has been my guess all along.

[Drake Tungsten]

I don't think they're close, either. I'm just wary of cocksure pronouncements when there is so much going on over there that we just don't know about...

[KrazyHorse]

I'd put a minimum of 4-5 years on it. That's assuming they have a bunch of crap we don't know about yet...

[DRoseDARs]

Well, the Bush Administration was cocksure about Saddam's Flying Monkeys of DOOM!!1 and Al Qaeda sleepovers at his palaces.

[Drake Tungsten]

Well, the Bush Administration was cocksure about Saddam's Flying Monkeys of DOOM!!1 and Al Qaeda sleepovers at his palaces.

That turned out real great, didn't it?

[DRoseDARs]

Yeah, so great I'm willing to eat whatever sh*tcake sandwiches they prepare out off the "evidence" and rumors they have over Iran. Mmm mmm poo.

[Sandman]

First thing to do, before exchanging missiles, is to exchange ambassadors. It's absolutely ridiculous that Iran and America don't have normal diplomatic relations.

[Drake Tungsten]

It's absolutely ridiculous that Iran and America don't have normal diplomatic relations.

You know, there might still be some ill will over what happened to our last embassy staff...

[aneeshm]

Two weeks is too little. I give them six months to a year (but this is a completely random guess, and it may be totally off the mark, but I know that war with Iran is inevitable, and will happen sometime or the other).

[Sandman]

Originally posted by Drake Tungsten


You know, there might still be some ill will over what happened to our last embassy staff...

Why not just bite the bullet? No-one ever said that diplomatic work was safe.