Will we be on Mars in 2066?

[Winston]

NASA and others have plans for resumed Moon landings by 2020 (50 years after the first..), followed by Moon bases and preparations for manned missions to Mars in the decades thereafter.

But, 60 years from now, will we have visited Mars - or will people still be reading that "by 2085, we expect to have a manned mission set to go"?

This is like peak oil in reverse. Or the hare and the tortoise trying to agree on setting up the race. Get moving!

[realpolitic]

They claim a carbon filliment space elevator is psossible by 2019, it's such a great idea even for LEO satelitlites that it will be builtfrom there it will be easy to get to Mars in 10 years, whether conventionally, with solar sails, ion propulsion or tethers. Old news

[Jonny]

I think we will. Or, I at least hope so... I would think that between NASA, the Russians, the ESA, and the nascent/growing space programs in China, India, Brazil, et al., someone is likely to have done it.

[Winston]

A space elevator will take at least 50 years to build from the time that it's "possible". You have to construct a 50,000 km high tower, adding in the counterweight tether that is likely to be needed. And you will most probably have to construct it by starting in geo-synchronous orbit and building "upwards" and downwards at the same time. That's not likely to be achieved overnight, so to speak.

I would hope that we could get to Mars well before a space elevator is finally ready sometime in the mid-22nd century..

I voted for the first poll option, by the way. I have hopes that serious planning and funding will go into manned Mars missions once the Moon programme gets up to speed again, and once the increasingly rich data are being relayed back from the numerous robotic Mars missions that we will surely be seeing in the near future.

[Wycoff]

I voted no.


I think that there's a growing apathy about space and space exploration in the western world, or at least in the U.S. Bush was battered on all sides by suggesting a Mars mission a few years ago, and politicians seriously pushing for such projects will get crushed by opponents who call it wasteful. Besides, the U.S. is steadily declining in the number and quality of scientists and engineers. I imagine that this will only get worse. Maybe there will be some private exploration, but I doubt it. The costs would be enormous.

If someone does make it to Mars by 2066, I think that it'll be either China or Japan.

[realpolitic]

I've never heard the 50 year number anywhere, got a link?.Now they want to build it in space and drop it to earth. It's extremely utiliarian. I can't imagine it not being completed by 2040.

[SlowwHand]

Might be blown that high by then.

[Winston]

Originally posted by realpolitic
I've never heard the 50 year number anywhere, got a link?.Now they want to build it in space and drop it to earth.

You dont have to provide links for posting an opinion, which is all it was. A personal estimate, and a very liberal one at that. Do you have any idea how ludicrous even a thousand kilometers of construction per year really is when we're talking of a space environment. I would think that a good deal of the raw materials would have to come from a suitable asteroid, which would also first have to be located, "transported" to Earth orbit, and processing hardware set up for its exploitation.

It's extremely utiliarian. I can't imagine it not being completed by 2040.

So that's 2,000 kilometres of construction per year in space, assuming they get the tech down and the asteroid in place by 2015 (which is a crazy notion in and of itself).

Well, let's just say I can imagine it not being completed by 2040. Try 2400.

[SlowwHand]

New rules. You have to post links for an opinion.

http://apolyton.net/forums/showthread.php?s=&threadid=159174

[Flip McWho]

Outta curiousity, why don't they have nuclear powered space ships?

[realpolitic]

No we'll just have nanoassembly by then. getting a list of the 3 billion base pairs of DNA wby 2000 was very abitious too, we didn't have the tech to do it then.

[Will9]

If we really tried, we could have someone on Mars in 25 years. The problem is that we aren't tring very hard. It will probably be 50-60 years before a man walks on Mars.

[Elok]

I forget: why do we want to leave this planet exactly? Global warming or not, it's still a good deal more pleasant than any of the others.

[Winston]

Yeah, why climb the highest mountain? Why does Rice play Texas?

[Wycoff]

Originally posted by Elok
I forget: why do we want to leave this planet exactly? Global warming or not, it's still a good deal more pleasant than any of the others.

This is the kind of stuff that I'm talking about.

Why try to leave? Because one day our survival may depend upon it.