Paris erupts number 2

[lord of the mark]

Forget the silly riots.

Try a What-if.

A major volcano (Im thinking mt st helens scale) erupts under central Paris, France, on say, September 1st 1914. Just before the battle of the Marne, whenever. What happens next?

Or suggest an alternate date for Paris to erupt.

[mrboo123]

My guess, all hell breaks loose in France, and the Germans (20th Century) or the Brits (before that) say they're heartborken, but couldn't care less, or they get scared silly, wondering if it could happen to them. Or just laugh.

[Wycoff]

My guess:

Germany overwhelms a crippled France, and then pushes the British off of the continent. France sues for peace. Germany then turns east and defeats the Russians. The war between Germany and Britain ends in a stalemate, because Germany can't invade the British Isles and Britain can't starve Germany fortified with it's new Eastern territories. Germany annexes Lux., parts of France, creates independant puppet states in Poland and the Ukraine, and confiscates most of France's colonial empire. Austria-Hungary conquers Serbia, the Habsburgs assume the Serbian crown, and a new triple-monarchy arises.

The U.S. stays out of the war.

The Great War is over by 1917.

After the war, Germany helps the Russians thwart a red revolution and assists the French civil rebuilding effort.

[Elok]

If Paris erupted with Number Two (ruptured sewer line, I imagine?)...well, I can't say that I'd expect much to change, really. There'd be an influx of hideously ugly colors in fashion next spring and the French would all smell terrible.

[lord of the mark]

Originally posted by Wycoff
My guess:

Germany overwhelms a crippled France, and then pushes the British off of the continent. France sues for peace. Germany then turns east and defeats the Russians. The war between Germany and Britain ends in a stalemate, because Germany can't invade the British Isles and Britain can't starve Germany fortified with it's new Eastern territories. Germany annexes Lux., parts of France, creates independant puppet states in Poland and the Ukraine, and confiscates most of France's colonial empire. Austria-Hungary conquers Serbia, the Habsburgs assume the Serbian crown, and a new triple-monarchy arises.

The U.S. stays out of the war.

The Great War is over by 1917.

After the war, Germany helps the Russians thwart a red revolution and assists the French civil rebuilding effort.

Hey, Im not so sure. Is France going to give in that easy? Lets say that all the population of Paris, including the rail junctions, factories, etc are gone, but that the troops, including the BEF, are already outisde the zone of destruction ready to fight the battle of the Marne. They probably want to go ahead and fight the battle, they dont really have much choice to save the flank of the French army, and they can hurt the Germans badly. The armies probably have the supplies they need for the battle. No taxicab army and the germans are hurt a bit less badly, but probably are still beaten, IIUC. The problem comes after the battle. No logistical base in Paris. But the French were already preparing for the loss of Paris, they had moved all the rail rolling stock out, and even wired the eiffel tower and all the bridges for destruction, and govt was in Bordeaux. Now they dont have Paris, but the Germans wont have it either. French army rushes South to make for the line of the Loire.

Brits have to decide to either rush south with them, or pull the BEF back to Britain. But this isnt WW2 (no tanks to end things quickly) and it isnt 1871 (france has ALLIES). Meanwhile the Germans who are occupying Northern France have to move around this giant, active, volcano.

[Wycoff]

Originally posted by lord of the mark Hey, Im not so sure. Is France going to give in that easy? Lets say that all the population of Paris, including the rail junctions, factories, etc are gone, but that the troops, including the BEF, are already outisde the zone of destruction ready to fight the battle of the Marne. They probably want to go ahead and fight the battle, they dont really have much choice to save the flank of the French army, and they can hurt the Germans badly. The armies probably have the supplies they need for the battle. No taxicab army and the germans are hurt a bit less badly, but probably are still beaten, IIUC. The problem comes after the battle. No logistical base in Paris. But the French were already preparing for the loss of Paris, they had moved all the rail rolling stock out, and even wired the eiffel tower and all the bridges for destruction, and govt was in Bordeaux. Now they dont have Paris, but the Germans wont have it either. French army rushes South to make for the line of the Loire.

I'd imagine that having your capital city utterly destroyed would have a very demoralizing effect on the entire country and its war will. Even if it didn't, I think that the destruction puts the Germans at a significant advantage, plus it changes the tactics. No longer having a drive to Paris as a goal, maybe the Germans swing try to drive the BEF north back across the channel. The Loire line and Bordeaux would be left unmolested as the German army attempts to dominate Northern France. If the Germans can push the BEF off the continent and take some channel cities like Calais and Le Havre (which the Germans planned on taking after the war anyway), they could just play a waiting game with the French. If they weren't demoralized after the destruction of Paris, I'd bet that they'd be demoralized after losing the northern third of their country and the British presence. The Brits would have to ship their troops at least to the Bay of Biscay in order to assist the French, making transport ships ripe targets for attack.

Who knows... maybe this situation with a staggering, weakened France would have induced Italy to honor its obligations to the Central Powers. Italy could make a land grab and thrust into southern France. Could France defend Nice and Grenoble?

The loss of Paris would have been huge, IMO.

[Flip McWho]

Having your capital city destroyed can be demoralising, but it can also be used to fire up the population.

[lord of the mark]

ok, look. In OTL battle of the Marne was followed by race to the sea, establishment of trench lines from Swiss border to the sea, Germans having very good geographical position (heights, good ground for trenchbuilding,etc). Allies tried offensives in 1915, failed, etc.

Now in this TL I think we get the French falling back to a line running from the Atlantic, along the Loire (a better barrier than most rivers in Norhtern France, IIUC) all the way to Switzerland. Theyve lost Paris. I presume a fair amount of french industrial potential for building artillery, shells, etc goes with it (for coal and steel it wont matter - plenty lost in OTL, but not much in Paris)

I see no reason the BEF cant escape - either south alongside the French, or to Britain - without tanks the Germans trap them - if they cant get to Calais, they should easily get to Le Havre. And they will be reinserting into France, for the same reasons they stayed in France in OTL.


The RN can still hold German surface ships out of the channel. They will have a few more good sub bases though. Sub bases in Brittany could be very tempting targets for amphib raids though. With no armor its hard to move forces around quickly. At a minimum the entire German-occupied French coast will need to be well garrisoned.

With far fewer shells and artillery pieces the Western allies wont be launching any offensives in 1915. But thats probably a good thing, such offensives being mainly pointless. See thats the thing about WW1, if you do worse, and it means you launch fewer offensives, you may be BETTER off.

Germany will be stronger in the east in 1915. They may break through and take Warsaw earlier. Heck, they almost certainly will. Assuming THEY arent tempted into a big offensive in the West in 1915.

Italy? Well on the hand Id be inclined to say that if Italy joins the CP, that hurts Germany - one less neutral outlet through the blockade, in return for an ineffective Italian army. OTOH Keegan considers the Italian army underrated - they faced horrible geographic conditions on the Austrian frontier. But then the conditions on the french frontier arent great. France can probably hold them off without a huge amount of force. And theres still the RN to threaten Italy. But at least Italy doesnt join the allies, which frees up some Austrians to go fight the Russians. And again, provides Germany a potential neutral outlet - at least another trading partner, which cant hurt.


I think France and britain will hold for quite some time - i think UK is quite capable of supplying via Bordeaux - this war doesnt present the shipping demands that WW2 does. The real question is Russia. Does this mean an earlier (and thus different) revolution? Or does Cousin Nicky sue for peace ("no one could have predicted the volcano, theres no loss of honour in signing a seperate peace")

ANd dont forget this IS a volcano. Effects of ash plume, darkness on agriculture due east (which includes Germany, of course)

Oh, and the loss of Paris will certainly shock the natives in the French empire.

[lord of the mark]

Originally posted by Flip McWho
Having your capital city destroyed can be demoralising, but it can also be used to fire up the population.

especially those who have been dormant.