2006 congressional election thread

[Kuciwalker]

According to http://www.electoral-vote.com/, Missouri and Tennessee are barely blue, while New Jersey is red. Hm? And in VA, Allen is barely pulling away from Webb

[Guynemer]

****ing Virginia.

Bear in mind, this is the same website that showed a fairly constant advantage for Kerry in 2004, so my compatriots on the left shouldn't get too excited.

[Kuciwalker]

****ing Virginia.

#$@%& you too

[Eli]

Bear in mind, this is the same website that showed a fairly constant advantage for Kerry in 2004, so my compatriots on the left shouldn't get too excited.

They dont make the polls, just show them.

[Ramo]

I like pollster.com. They have 5 and 10 poll averages, trend lines, pretty graphs, etc. For electoral-vote.com, one outlier (i.e. Zogby Interactive, which is consistently ****ed up) can skew things a lot.

So VA didn't really go from barely to lean Rep, but changed almost entirely because Zogby dropped off (Rasmussen has Allen going up by a couple points, but that doesn't mean all that much); it really always was (since Macaca) lean Rep. Webb just went on air, so things may change. But there's a ginormous cash gap that needs to be narrowed (IIRC 14:1 as of the last filing).

MO has been switching leads all campaign, but ultimately should be considered barely Rep due to Talent's 2:1 CoH advantage. NJ really is in the opposite situation: it should be considered a toss-up due to Menendez's 3:1 CoH advantage, although Kean has a little bit of momentum due to a corruption investigation into Menendez (however polling has notoriously underestimated Dems in the state - both the 2004 election and the Governor's race were supposed to be close).

TN might be a good call since Ford has both cash and momentum (due to Corker's 9-1-1 scandal). But it's probably closer to toss-up than barely Dem.

Also PA is a crazy call. Santorum might be a much better campaigner than Casey and has narrowed the gap a bit, but that still doesn't make it barely Dem.

[Kuciwalker]

So VA didn't really go from barely to lean Rep, but changed almost entirely because Zogby dropped off (Rasmussen has Allen going up by a couple points, but that doesn't mean all that much); it really always was (since Macaca) lean Rep. Webb just went on air, so things may change. But there's a ginormous cash gap that needs to be narrowed (IIRC 14:1 as of the last filing).

My university has the NYT but WaPo, so it's hard to follow the race

[Kuciwalker]

From a recent WaPo article on a Webb-Allen debate, though:

Allen lashed out at Webb, accusing him of failing to support the first war in Iraq in the early 1990s. "Heck, the French were even in favor of military action in 1991," Allen said.

Webb responded aggressively, frequently interrupting Allen and often returning to his own history as a Marine in Vietnam. In a prepared comeback he has used several times on the campaign trail, Webb said that "George Allen didn't fight in Vietnam. Even the French fought in Vietnam."

[Ramo]

[SlowwHand]

Oh goody. Nothing will get done again.

Projected New Senate: 50 Democrats 50 Republicans

[Jon Miller]

That's a lot better than what happens when Republicans are in charge.

JM

[SlowwHand]

Would you care to cite an example?

Taking a shot at getting something done is better than being called out on strikes with the bat on your shoulder.

[Velociryx]

I agree!

.....if you consider ripping the Constitution to shreds and taking pains to strip Americans of their rights and trying to bulldog legislation thru to make the actions of your incredibly impeachable Commander in Chief retroactively legal as being noble goals, then by all means, let's continue with the Repugnant Majority!

Gridlock will save us from a bunch of criminals who pretend to have our best interests at heart.

-=Vel=-

[Sava]

your face will save us from a bunch of criminals who pretend to have our best interests at heart

[SlowwHand]

I don't care which way, but go. We can't afford to just sit around.

[Jon Miller]

Originally posted by SlowwHand
Would you care to cite an example?

Taking a shot at getting something done is better than being called out on strikes with the bat on your shoulder.

The last 6 years.

JM