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What'll the world population be in 2100?

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  • #31
    I'd like to believe it, but you'll forgive my cynicism, I hope.
    12-17-10 Mohamed Bouazizi NEVER FORGET
    Stadtluft Macht Frei
    Killing it is the new killing it
    Ultima Ratio Regum

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    • #32
      Even if you are cynical, on the whole, the distribution that you posted is mostly optimistic.
      I came upon a barroom full of bad Salon pictures in which men with hats on the backs of their heads were wolfing food from a counter. It was the institution of the "free lunch" I had struck. You paid for a drink and got as much as you wanted to eat. For something less than a rupee a day a man can feed himself sumptuously in San Francisco, even though he be a bankrupt. Remember this if ever you are stranded in these parts. ~ Rudyard Kipling, 1891

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      • #33
        The nations that CURRENTLY have TFRs below replacement level. Data from CIA world factbook.


        132 Guyana 2.04 2006 est.
        133 Albania 2.03 2006 est.
        134 French Polynesia 2.01 2006 est.
        135 Saint Pierre and Miquelon 2.01 2006 est.
        136 Chile 2.00 2006 est.
        137 Netherlands Antilles 1.99 2006 est.
        138 Burma 1.98 2006 est.
        139 Mauritius 1.95 2006 est.
        140 Dominica 1.94 2006 est.
        141 Iceland 1.92 2006 est.
        142 Turkey 1.92 2006 est.
        143 Brazil 1.91 2006 est.
        144 Vietnam 1.91 2006 est.
        145 Cayman Islands 1.90 2006 est.
        146 Guadeloupe 1.90 2006 est.
        147 Lebanon 1.90 2006 est.
        148 Algeria 1.89 2006 est.
        149 Kazakhstan 1.89 2006 est.
        150 Uruguay 1.89 2006 est.
        151 Bermuda 1.89 2006 est.
        152 Ireland 1.86 2006 est.
        153 Moldova 1.85 2006 est.
        154 Sri Lanka 1.84 2006 est.
        155 France 1.84 2006 est.
        156 Saint Vincent and the Grenadines 1.83 2006 est.
        157 Cyprus 1.82 2006 est.
        158 Iran 1.80 2006 est.
        159 Aruba 1.79 2006 est.
        160 New Zealand 1.79 2006 est.
        161 Martinique 1.79 2006 est.
        162 Luxembourg 1.78 2006 est.
        163 Norway 1.78 2006 est.
        164 Serbia 1.78 2006 est.
        165 Montserrat 1.77 2006 est.
        166 Australia 1.76 2006 est.
        167 Monaco 1.76 2006 est.
        168 Puerto Rico 1.75 2006 est.
        169 Denmark 1.74 2006 est.
        170 Tunisia 1.74 2006 est.
        171 Seychelles 1.74 2006 est.
        172 Trinidad and Tobago 1.74 2006 est.
        173 Anguilla 1.73 2006 est.
        174 China 1.73 2006 est.
        175 Finland 1.73 2006 est.
        176 British Virgin Islands 1.72 2006 est.
        177 Cuba 1.66 2006 est.
        178 United Kingdom 1.66 2006 est.
        179 Sweden 1.66 2006 est.
        180 Netherlands 1.66 2006 est.
        181 Barbados 1.65 2006 est.
        182 Isle of Man 1.65 2006 est.
        183 Gibraltar 1.65 2006 est.
        184 Belgium 1.64 2006 est.
        185 Thailand 1.64 2006 est.
        186 Canada 1.61 2006 est.
        187 Jersey 1.58 2006 est.
        188 Macedonia 1.57 2006 est.
        189 Taiwan 1.57 2006 est.
        190 Saint Helena 1.55 2006 est.
        191 Liechtenstein 1.51 2006 est.
        192 Malta 1.50 2006 est.
        193 European Union 1.47 2006 est.
        194 Portugal 1.47 2006 est.
        195 Belarus 1.43 2006 est.
        196 Switzerland 1.43 2006 est.
        197 Georgia 1.42 2006 est.
        198 Estonia 1.40 2006 est.
        199 Japan 1.40 2006 est.
        200 Croatia 1.40 2006 est.
        201 Guernsey 1.39 2006 est.
        202 Germany 1.39 2006 est.
        203 Bulgaria 1.38 2006 est.
        204 Romania 1.37 2006 est.
        205 Austria 1.36 2006 est.
        206 Greece 1.34 2006 est.
        207 San Marino 1.34 2006 est.
        208 Armenia 1.33 2006 est.
        209 Slovakia 1.33 2006 est.
        210 Hungary 1.32 2006 est.
        211 Andorra 1.30 2006 est.
        212 Italy 1.28 2006 est.
        213 Spain 1.28 2006 est.
        214 Russia 1.28 2006 est.
        215 Korea, South 1.27 2006 est.
        216 Latvia 1.27 2006 est.
        217 Poland 1.25 2006 est.
        218 Slovenia 1.25 2006 est.
        219 Northern Mariana Islands 1.24 2006 est.
        220 Bosnia and Herzegovina 1.22 2006 est.
        221 Czech Republic 1.21 2006 est.
        222 Lithuania 1.20 2006 est.
        223 Ukraine 1.17 2006 est.
        224 Singapore 1.06 2006 est.
        225 Macau 1.02 2006 est.
        226 Hong Kong 0.95 2006 est.
        "A person cannot approach the divine by reaching beyond the human. To become human, is what this individual person, has been created for.” Martin Buber

        Comment

        • #34
          5 billion, there will be a die-off because of global warming.

          Comment

          • #35
            Originally posted by Odin
            5 billion, there will be a die-off because of global warming.
            it's even more hilarious once you realize Odin is serious about this

            I vote 7-10 billion.

            Comment

            • #36
              A population decline? Not likely we're going to see that on this planet.

              Comment

              • #37
                Originally posted by DanS
                What do you mean by that? During the 70s and 80s, all the talk was of a population explosion rather than a moderation of population growth, as has occured.
                Wasn't this more ecologists etc rather than demographers?

                Comment

                • #38
                  Factoring in the results of the Relationship Status poll, then there will be two 'polytubbies here at that time - trolling each other of course.

                  Comment

                  • #39
                    Originally posted by VetLegion
                    A population decline? Not likely we're going to see that on this planet.
                    why not?
                    If you exclude Immigration, population is already declining in dozens of countries, and more get added to that list every year...

                    As many have pointed out, the growth rate is declining in almost all countries, even in Africa I believe.

                    Comment

                    • #40
                      No, not in Africa.

                      But my point is that even if growth rates decline, they're not likely to dissapear.

                      There are predictions about European countries declining from, say, 80 million to 60 million (Germany) or from 55 million to 35 million (Italy) in the next 50 years, based on trends. I don't trust those predictions. The countries that have hit rock bottom WRT growth (a negative growth) are probably going to recover back to stable zero, while Africa, India, Latin America are going to keep growing strongly for the forseable time.

                      lotm: there indeed are significant differences between cultures, and that means that demographic transition may never finish in some countries.

                      Comment

                      • #41
                        I expect the world population to reach 12 billion in the latter half of the century, with global war over resources starting around a peak of 13-15 billion people. The population will still be above 10 billion in 2100, but will be falling rapidly.
                        "The purpose of studying economics is not to acquire a set of ready-made answers to economic questions, but to learn how to avoid being deceived by economists."
                        -Joan Robinson

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                        • #42
                          Originally posted by VJ

                          it's even more hilarious once you realize Odin is serious about this

                          I vote 7-10 billion.
                          You do know that we are in population overshoot, right? we've exceeded the planet's ecological carrying capacity.

                          Comment

                          • #43
                            Originally posted by Odin
                            You do know that we are in population overshoot, right? we've exceeded the planet's ecological carrying capacity.
                            Whatever you say, Malthus
                            THEY!!111 OMG WTF LOL LET DA NOMADS AND TEH S3D3NTARY PEOPLA BOTH MAEK BITER AXP3REINCES
                            AND TEH GRAAT SINS OF THERE [DOCTRINAL] INOVATIONS BQU3ATH3D SMAL
                            AND!!1!11!!! LOL JUST IN CAES A DISPUTANT CALS U 2 DISPUT3 ABOUT THEYRE CLAMES
                            DO NOT THAN DISPUT3 ON THEM 3XCAPT BY WAY OF AN 3XTARNAL DISPUTA!!!!11!! WTF

                            Comment

                            • #44
                              Originally posted by Odin
                              we've exceeded the planet's ecological carrying capacity.
                              Originally posted by Victor Galis
                              with global war over resources starting around a peak of 13-15 billion people
                              I'm pretty sure we're not anywhere near planet's carrying capacity. Maybe when the whole world has population density of Bangladesh.

                              As for war for resources, it's being waged right now, over oil

                              Comment

                              • #45
                                Originally posted by Odin


                                You do know that we are in population overshoot, right? we've exceeded the planet's ecological carrying capacity.
                                not even close yet, thanks to the post-ww2 green revolution in agriculture

                                science ftw

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