What'll the world population be in 2100?

[Narz]

Fun poll. Back up your answer (by posting).

[Lazerus]

7-10bill, reckon it could easily pass 15bill but who wants to bother feedin africans when we can all get fat instead

[RGBVideo]

Originally posted by Lazerus
who wants to bother feedin africans

not africans themselves, obviously

and that's all "our" fault, yes

[Wycoff]

I said 7-10. The population of the advanced world is shrinking. As other, former 3rd world countries (India, China) reach western living standards, their population will decline as well.

[LordShiva]

I would have liked to vote 10,05x,xxx,xxx, but there's no option for that

And no banana

[Zoid]

Nature is striking back. 2100 the monkeys will have taken over

[lord of the mark]

Originally posted by Wycoff
I said 7-10. The population of the advanced world is shrinking. As other, former 3rd world countries (India, China) reach western living standards, their population will decline as well.

Their TFR's (total fertility rate(lifetime) per female) is already declining. In some cases fairly rapidly, and IIUC in a few already below replacement. They are still growing cause of demographic momentum (the TFR is down, but the number of females in childbearing years is still increasing because of past fertility) but by 2030 or so they should be declining also.

I said 5 - 6 billion. It seems very likely that the trend toward below replacement fertility with higher levels of social and economic development is a broad trend that that transcends individual cultures - barring pro natalist policies, Europe, East and South Asia, and most of the Americas should all have neg pop growth by the middle of the 21st century.

If it wasnt for uncertainty about Africa, the possibilty of selective adoption of pronatalist policies, and other factors, Id have gone with a lower pop figure.


Note, according to Chinas State Statistical Bureaus, the TFR there is ALREADY below replacement. Though there is apparently some skepticism about the data.

Note that measuring current TFR is not easy, as you dont know for sure how many children currently fertile women will have in the course of their lifetime. There is an especial problem as women delay childbearing - you see declines in births to women in their teens and twenties, but no offsetting gains t to women in their thirties, since that cohort has already had their children. So the TFRs can look VERY low, but then bounce back when the women who had no children in their twenties fill out their families in their thirties. This has caused INCREASES in observed TFRs in some advanced countries, notably in northwest Europe (but still below replacement)

[MMC]

I say 3 people. And a dog... maybe a monkey. But 107 bananas shall rule the world.

[Lorizael]

Hopefully by then it'll just be me.

[Kuciwalker]

7-10. IIRC it's supposed to top out at 9 and then start decreasing.

[DanS]

The demographers haven't been good predictors in the past with regard to population growth, so I don't put much stock in what they say. Really, the population is still to be determined. There could be baby booms and the like.

That said, Japan is already losing population. Eastern Europe has been losing population for a while.

Kids are becoming less and less economic assets, so it stands to reason that population growth will moderate.

[VetLegion]

Over 15 billion.

Modern people don't have kids, but traditionalists will inherit the Earth.

[VetLegion]

USA: 2 billion
China: 3 billion
India: 3 billion
Europe: 1 billion
Africa: 2 billion
Rest of Asia: 2 billion
Rest of Americas: 2 billion

[Guynemer]

Originally posted by VetLegion
USA: 2 billion

You expect the population of ths USA to grow by 600% in the next 94 years?

[lord of the mark]

Originally posted by VetLegion
China: 3 billion
India: 3 billion

No way, Jose.

China's population growth rate is already down to .59 % per year (IE less than 1 per cent) and thats with some time to go before the lower TFR overcomes the demographic momentum.