XM or Sirius?

[mrmitchell]

I've seen XM in action with three people (zero for Sirius) and it looks great, but I want to make sure I'm not missing out on a better deal with Sirius.

Do any of y'all have satellite radio? I remember Asher has Sirius, but he wanted some NHL package and I don't particularly care about hockey. (On the other hand, Sirius has SEC coverage...)

So, which is better? I mean, I can look up the channels, but I'm talking about music selection, commercial time, sound quality, service, sports coverage, etc.

Thanks
mrmitchell

[Ninot]

I heard XM is generally better for sports. A friend of mine had it and I was pretty impressed. No experience with Sirius

[Asher]

Sirius has more channels (at least in Canada) for the same price, has better plug n' play radios (IMO), and has less repeating music from the reviews of both I read.

[DanS]

I've had rental cars with XM and I bought my dad Sirius for the NBA.

My sense is that both services are excellent and that you can't really go wrong with either. XM is integrated in a whole lot more devices, however. I've seen the logo "XM HD" on stereo receivers, but I don't know too much about that. Could be good for lovers of some types of music where bass, etc. is stressed.

[asleepathewheel]

I got xm due to the mlb coverage. Have had it a little over a year. haven't regretted it. Just got back from a drive from NYC to Indy (about 12 hrs) and it was critical.

http://www.radiosatellite.org/

seems everything is quite similar, price wise and content wise, with the sports coverage and stern being the significant differences.

xm is getting the nhl for the 2007-2008 season (as in, the season after next)

From what I've read, XM seems to be the more stable company and more likely to survive. (many more subscribers, better agreements, higher stock price, Sirius is valued more highly, IIRC)

as far as the devices go, I would just go to best buy and see which feels best to you. If the use is for a car, then you keep in mind which is easier to use with one hand. For me, it was XM. I have had the Roady1, 2 xt, myfi and a skyfi2.

commercials have been creeping into some of the xm stations. they're quickies, but it is annoying.

[Asher]

From what I've read, XM seems to be the more stable company and more likely to survive. (many more subscribers, better agreements, higher stock price, Sirius is valued more highly, IIRC)

It's the opposite in Canada. XM was projected to be the leader, but Sirius is kicking its ass. XM has responded by raising their rates to match Sirius's $15CDN/mo, but with less channels and some advertising in their music and without NHL this year.

7 out of 10 satellite radios in Canada right now are Sirius.

[Asher]

http://www.digitalhome.ca/content/view/1532/98/

XM Radio Canada released unaudited subscriber numbers today which show, that as of August 31st, the company had 120,000 satellite radio subscribers and had significantly exceeded its first year goal of 75,000 subscribers.

The number is a ray of light for a company that appears to be falling behind its only competitor and whose stock price has plummeted 58% since it went public just ten months ago.

XM Satellite Radio has been available in Canada since last December and is averaging just over 13,000 new subscribers each month. In its first quarter as a publicly traded company, XM Radio Canada gained 50,000 new subscribers followed by 30,000 in its second quarter and 40,000 in its third.

Despite having exceeded it's first years subscriber projections (120,000 actual vs. 75,000 projected), it’s difficult to imagine how the company will reach its lofty long term subscriber goals.

When XM went public last December, the company said it expected to have over 75,000 subscribers by August 31st 2006 and 1 million subscribers by August 31st, 2010.

To achieve its goals over the next four years, the company will need to add more than 18,000 "net new" subscribers every month for the next 48 months. We say “net new” subscribers because XM will also need to make for any subscribers that cancel their service.

The 18,000 net new subscribers a month goal is a significant hurdle to achieve since it is approximately 40% higher than it current average.

Of course, Satellite radio is a new service to Canada so it is not unrealistic to think that sales will pick up significantly as consumers become increasingly aware of the service and more automobiles become equipped with factory installed radios.

Digital Home, however, does not see XM being able to achieve such strong growth in the coming year. The primary reason for our pessimistic outlook for XM has been the incredible strength its chief competitor - Sirus Satellite Radio.

When the two services began last December in Canada, XM was expected to be the dominate player in the Canadian satellite radio market. Experts gave the edge to XM because it was the dominant satellite radio provider in the U.S. and had greater brand awareness in Canada.

In addition, XM trumpeted the fact that it had "the lowest monthly fee in satellite radio" and produced studies that showed that XM's lower monthly price would give it the advantage over Sirius. XM believed consumer surveys that told them that Canadians preferred lower prices rather than more channels.

At the time of launch, XM was offering 80 channels a month for $12.99 while Sirius Canada was offering 100 channels for $14.99 per month.

Since the two services launched a lot has changed. Although XM Radio remains the industry leader south of the border, things are definitely not going so well north of the border.

The first public hint of trouble came for XM came in early March when it was announced that both Sirius and XM had signed up 50,000 subscribers. This came as a surprise since XM had been expected to dominate.

Industry analysts, looking for a reason for Sirius’s strong showing, ignored the fact that Sirius was offering 20 more channels than XM and attributed the strong Sirius showing to the recent addition of Howard Stern.

Sirius added Howard Stern to its line-up in early February so analysts dismissed Sirius' big first quarter as a one-time event and unlikely to continue.

Later in March, it became clear that Sirius was not just running neck and neck with XM but had begun to take a significant lead. One large independent satellite radio dealer told Digital Home that seven out of ten satellite radios sold in his store were Sirius!

The strength of Sirius sales appeared to spark a quick reaction. In April, just five months after launch, XM announced that it would increase the number of stations it offered from 80 to up to 100. The announcement made it clear that the number of channels was important to Canadian consumers. Not to be outdone, Sirius soon upped the number of stations it offered to 110.

More channels being beamed out did not appear to provide any immediate help for XM because on May 10th, Sirius announced that it had reached 100,000 subscribers. Three weeks later, the best XM could do was announce that it had reached 80,000 subscribers.

In five months Sirius had reached 100,000 subs while it took XM six months to reach 80,000. Sirius was averaging almost 20,000 new subscribers per month versus just over 13,000 new subscribers per month for XM!

If this trend has continued since May, and today’s announcement by XM and our retailer reports suggest it has, then Sirius now has between 160,000 and 180,000 subscribers versus XM's 120,000 subscribers.

The weak growth of just 30,000 subscribers in the second quarter combined with the high cost of acquiring new customers clearly came as a surprise to XM because in July of this year, they did the unthinkable by raising their prices to $14.99 per month. The company was spending more money than anticipated on acquiring new customers and needed more revenue.

To avoid a huge backlash among existing customers, the company made the prices effective September 1st for new subscribers only. Existing subscribers would not be hit with the price increase until September 1st, 2007.
Summary
XM Radio exceeded their short term subscriber goal for the first nine months of operations by 60%, however, in order to reach their lofty long term subscriber goals and become profitable; the company will need to increase the number of new monthly subscribers it generates from 13,000 to over 18,000.

It's difficult to imagine how XM can increase those numbers by over 40% now that it is no longer the low cost leader in satellite radio and trails Sirius in the number of stations it offers.

Nine months ago XM radio was considered the brand leader that would dominate the Canadian marketplace with its low prices. Today, XM Radio is running a distant second to a fierce competitor and has been forced to raise its prices and offer more channels.

It's clear that investors in the publicly traded company feel the same way. XM Canada is operated by Canadian Satellite Radio Holdings which went public on the Toronto Stock Exchange for $16 per share last December and finished the day yesterday at $6.80 per share - down a whopping 42.5%.

In our opinion, year two will be a tough one for XM Radio in Canada.

[asleepathewheel]

Why do you think that is, NHL? From what I've read, Sirius has effectively traded the NHL in 2007 for NASCAR, I wonder what impact that will have in the near future.

[Asher]

It's the more stations as well as the NHL.

XM also can't advertise 100% commercial free music either.

[mrmitchell]

From what I've read, XM seems to be the more stable company and more likely to survive. (many more subscribers, better agreements, higher stock price, Sirius is valued more highly, IIRC)

I looked it up on Wikipedia which said both of them are losing $100Ms of dollars. And they're still operating just fine. Business

[Asher]

October 4, 2006

Sirius and XM Satellite Radio both announced their third quarter subscriber numbers today, and Sirius said it has passed the five million mark, ending the third quarter with 5,119,308 subscribers. Sirius added 441,101 net subscribers in the third quarter of 2006, which is a 23 percent increase over last year's third quarter net subscriber additions. The satcaster also reiterated its guidance of 6.3 million subscribers by the end of 2006.

Meanwhile, XM announced that it added more than 285,000 net subscribers in the third quarter, giving the rival satcaster more than 7.185 million subscribers in total. XM also noted that starting in the third quarter, it stopped including certain rental car fleets in its tally, amounting to about 20,000 subscriptions. This change is a result of a new marketing program that XM recently implemented with rental partners for 2007 model year vehicles in order to increase the number of rental cars equipped with XM Satellite Radio. The company believes that it will end the year with somewhere between 7.7 million and 8.2 million subscribers.

A recent study from Bridge Ratings says that satellite radio sales have been sluggish, but the holiday shopping season is on the horizon, and that has typically given the medium a big boost.

Sirius continues to outpace XM by a significant margin.