RI Senate Race

[Shi Huangdi]

Anyone following this race? The Dems seem like they are getting a real gift here. I was watching this Week and they had mentioned that Laffey, a right-winger, was leading Chafee, a moderate Republican in the RI Republican Primary. This being RI of course, kicking out a popular moderate with a rightwinger is a guaranteed way to lose. I guess the wing of the GOP that is insistant on smothering all intraparty dissent that nearly unseated Specter in '04 is gaining strength..

[Winston]

All those red Rhode Islanders are chicken anyway.

[ajbera]

Is Buddy Cianci out of prison yet?

[Ramo]

The potential problems with that poll are that it didn't include independents, who can vote in RI primaries, and that since it only polled RI Republicans, there was a small sample size. FWIW, Chaffee released an internal poll that showed himself with a sizeable lead. Remember that a week prior to the CT Sen primary, Lamont was supposed to win by 10-14% (rather than the 3% margin that he actually did get). OTOH, Specter's victory over Toomey wasn't supposed to be as close at it ended up being (1% IIRC). The key lesson here is that primaries are hard to accurately poll.

Then again, the national party is pulling their field operations in various key states this fall to boost Chaffee next week, so he can't be doing too well. And Dole has been spending large amounts of the relatively small amounts that she has raised boosting Chaffee and attacking Laffey. An extremely stupid error on the part of their leadership, IMO.

But it really is a win/win for the Dems. If Laffey wins, Whitehouse wins in a landslide, the DSCC doesn't have to spend a dime in RI, Fogarty gets a decisive edge in taking the Governor's mansion, and any argument about the supposed extremism of the Democratic base wrt kicking out Lieberman gets nullified. If Chaffee wins, his coffers will be depleted, the Republican base will be extremely pissed off about their leadership - creating an even larger motivation gap between the parties, and Whitehouse still would have about even odds at winning the seat (he has been narrowly leading in recent polls).

The latter situation might even be preferable since winning the Senate looks improbable at this point (the stars would have to allign on all of the toss-up races and they would have to win either TN or VA), and a wide motivation gap would be essential in winning the House (which is the more important chamber to win, in any case). Remember that in '94, the chief reason for the GOP landslide was that Dems didn't turn out and Republicans did.

[Shi Huangdi]

Good points Ramo, although I would point out that Toomey was rapidly closing the gap as the primary approached.

The latter situation might even be preferable since winning the Senate looks improbable at this point (the stars would have to allign on all of the toss-up races and they would have to win either TN or VA), and a wide motivation gap would be essential in winning the House (which is the more important chamber to win, in any case). Remember that in '94, the chief reason for the GOP landslide was that Dems didn't turn out and Republicans did.

I wouldn't say it that's improbable- there are alot of signs of weakness in the economy right now and we could easily see a housing lead recession. A significant negative turn in the economy could give the Dems the push they need to get them over the top in both chambers. And after the whole "Macaca" incident, Webb has been pulling much clsoer in the polls.

[Admiral]

While I'm as much in favor of the Dems taking back the Senate as the next guy, to do so would involve basically every even romotely competitive senate race going to the Dems. And barring that, I think I'd like to see Chafee stay in the Senate.

The fact is, the Republican move farther and farther to the right is hurting the country. While in 2006, the Dems might retake Congress, that isn't really a solution. For there to be restored balance, there absolutely needs to be room for moderates in the GOP. And right now, Chafee is one of a very few Republicans who dares to disagree with the extremist party line. Throwing him from the party would be another Jeffords incident, and would seriously hurt any notions of diversity in the GOP.

So I hope that Chafee wins the primary, and the DSCC spends its money elsewhere.

[Rufus T. Firefly]

Originally posted by Admiral
While I'm as much in favor of the Dems taking back the Senate as the next guy, to do so would involve basically every even romotely competitive senate race going to the Dems. And barring that, I think I'd like to see Chafee stay in the Senate.

The fact is, the Republican move farther and farther to the right is hurting the country. While in 2006, the Dems might retake Congress, that isn't really a solution. For there to be restored balance, there absolutely needs to be room for moderates in the GOP. And right now, Chafee is one of a very few Republicans who dares to disagree with the extremist party line. Throwing him from the party would be another Jeffords incident, and would seriously hurt any notions of diversity in the GOP.

So I hope that Chafee wins the primary, and the DSCC spends its money elsewhere.

I couldn't disagree more. I actually think Chaffee's a good guy, but he doesn't belong in the GOP. Part of what's hurting the Dems is that conservative Democrats don't seem to have many qualms about bolting party (Richard Shelby, Ben Nighthorse Campbell, and a host of lesser lights) or noisily supporting the GOP over their own party (Zell Miller). But moderate-to-liberal Republicans won't do the same or, when they do, leave teh GOP but don't join the Dems (Jeffords, Lowell Weicker). Chaffee is a Democrat in all but name, but why should the Dems settle for that instead of an actual Democrat? They only gain substantive votes on occasion, and lose his procedural votes almost all the time. Out with him!

[Shi Huangdi]

Originally posted by Rufus T. Firefly


I couldn't disagree more. I actually think Chaffee's a good guy, but he doesn't belong in the GOP. Part of what's hurting the Dems is that conservative Democrats don't seem to have many qualms about bolting party (Richard Shelby, Ben Nighthorse Campbell, and a host of lesser lights) or noisily supporting the GOP over their own party (Zell Miller).

Ben Nelson?

[chequita guevara]

Ben Nelson isn't that conservative. He's no Russ Feingold, but Zell Miller or Joe Lieberrman he ain't.

[DinoDoc]

Lieberman isn't conservative, che.

[Admiral]

What worries me is the notion that the political parties are becoming more and more regional. Every member of Congress from the Northeast should not be a Democrat, and every member from the South shouldn't be a Republican.