Austria-Hungary

[Gangerolf]

Let's talk about the Austro-Hungarian empire.

Did it have to come to an end? What if there was no WW1?
Would (Slav) nationalism have killed it anyway?

Could it have evolved into a multi-ethnic democratic mini-EU superpower type thingy?

[VetLegion]

It's very hard to say. I think that it could have lasted for as long as Hungarians were in it, I don't see north or south Slavs trying for independence alone. Of course, they would have demanded greater autonomy, which would likely have been granted.

If the Hungarians decided to go independent, then all hell would break loose as Croats would definitely do the same, and others perhaps. Given that Europe was tied down in a string of alliances, every imaginable way of breaking up AH could trigger WWI, like events in Bosnia have done historically.

[Gangerolf]

Correct me if I'm wrong, but I think one of the reasons the Serbs wanted Franz Ferdinand dead was because he was in favour of creating a "tri-monarchy" system, where the new third part would be the south Slavs (dominated by Croats).
Of course this wouldn't solve anything when it comes to e.g. the huge population of Czechs in the north, but then again I think they were more content with their situation than the south slavs were.

BUT my point is I guess, that "trialism" or even a more advanced federal system of some kind would make it easier for any such new entities to eventually break away.

It seems likely that the empire would eventually dissolve one way or another.

[Gangerolf]

What reasons would the Hungarians have for "divorcing" the Austrians?

[VetLegion]

Yes, there were some ideas about tripartite monarchy. I doubt that they were the provocation for Serbian terrorism. They wanted Bosnia as part of Serbia independently of how the AH is organized.

What reasons would the Hungarians have for "divorcing" the Austrians?

Nationalism and illusions of grandeur? I think they had a pretty good arrangement since 1867. but I don't know if they were happy with it or not. I'm positive that the moment they separated they would have had revolts and perhaps wars on their hands.

[VetLegion]

Mini-EU isn't a bad idea and AH was definitely slowly drifting in that direction. But in hindsight we know how strong forces of nationalism can be - they have destroyed far more homogenous countries, like Yugoslavia.

Some form of another Switzerland in central Europe under Habsburgs is imaginable, maybe consisting of parts of Austria, Slovenia, Bohemia, Germany, Italy. But the bigger entities would opt for independence sooner or later.

[Heresson]

the map is faulty. Spisz and Orawa and Czadca were majorly Polish at that time. Also, Podole region was mixed, but had actually a bit more Poles than Ukrainians. Przemysl was majorly Polish, and there were large polish minorities in the grounds shown as clearly ukrainian.

[Gangerolf]

most maps like that are simplifying...

are you talking about Galicia? (can't say I recognise all those names you mention). Wikipedia says it was 58.6% Polish and 40.2% Ukrainian.

edit; and I assume neither the map nor wikipedia makes a distinction between Ruthenians and Ukrainians, just consider them the same species so to say

[Heresson]

look that polish thingie in going south, south of Krakow and north of Budapest. what's east to it is Spisz, what's left to it is Orawa.
Czadca is NW of Orawa, south to Cieszyn (teschen).

Podole is the extreme east of Galicja/Galicia. the part around Tarnopol, which was given temporaly by Austria to Russia.
And don't say maps are generalising. germans are everywhere they should be and more. The rest of the map seems ok as well.

[Gangerolf]

I guess I found an anti-Polish map then

[Nikolai]

My history teacher from high school thought the heir to the throne was also the potential saviour of the Habsburg empire, with his EUesque confederation ideas, but I don't know, it seems like it was a little late.

[Heresson]

Originally posted by Gangerolf
I guess I found an anti-Polish map then

not quite. I guess it's simply ignorant in some issues. But truely, many western-european maps are very ignorant in this one, specific, subject and f.e. show no Poles east to Lomza and Lublin, treating even large Polish ethnic island around Vilnius, existing (though severly reduced) up till today, as Byelorussians...
That is extremly strange, as even soviet maps don't do it.

[Dr Strangelove]

IIRC the Austro-Hungarians weren't supposed to have annexed Bosnia-Herzegovina, but instead were to hold it in trust until some future conference decided whether to give the area to Serbia or allow it to become a seperate nation or to become part of the empire. The Austro-Hungarians ignored the treaty and annexed the area. The Serbs were quite P.O.ed about this and decided to foster revolution in the area. War was going to happen in the area anyway, Russia was deterrmined to get involved and Germany was equally determined to sustain their weakened ally.

[lord of the mark]

Originally posted by Gangerolf
What reasons would the Hungarians have for "divorcing" the Austrians?

None, as long as A. The dual monarchy kept full Hungarian privileges - no third crown, a Hungary that included Croatia and Slovakia, and in which limited suffrage kept Magyars dominant, and B. Hungarian autonomy within the empire, including periodic approval of army money by the Hungarian parliament, with accompanying haggling over Hungarys privileges.

The problem is that an empire like that was becoming increasingly useless to the slavic minorities, and agitation was becoming intense on that and a range of issues in the last years of empire.

[Buck Birdseed]

The Hungarians virulently opposed third-crown ideas (or fourth-crown, since Bohemia was in line first) and probably destabilised the empire with their conservatism and magyarisation plans, but you've got to see things from their perspective as well. Unlike the homogenous Austrians, more than half of all Hungarians lived in parts of the empire where they were not the majority. The independence/autonomy struggles threatened to turn Hungarians into second-class citizens, which indeed they became after it all blew up in their face.