Fidel Castro may die soon, for real!!

[Winston]

"What, me worry?"

[Lodi]

Now, its only a matter of a few years till they install another brutal dictator who will "play along" and sell the country.

I agree that we have a neo-Battista to look forward to in the future. Definitely not a positive prospective for Cubans.

[lord of the mark]

a neo battista seems most unlikely. Where would the support come from. Most Lat Am right wing dictators are put in place by the military, with the support of the landed property class. Cuba lacks the latter, and Cuban military is more likely to support Raul.

Y'all seem to be assuming that A. The exiles would have a dominant say in post-Fidel politics, and B. That the exiles are united for a Baustita style dictatorship. Both of which are questionable assumptions, at best.

Looking at recent politics in Nicaragua for ex, in other post-Com societies, the most likely outcome IF the Communists lose power, is that a coalition of anti-communist (likely including conservatives, Catholic liberals, and social democrats) forces will come to power, more or less democratically, and will face a very subtantial and powerful Communist opposition. Or the Communist Party may split into a reformed wing and a true believer wing, esp if the anti-communists are weak. In which case the reform communists may play a swing role between right and left. Alternatively Cuba might follow the China-Viet Nam model, in which the party retains its grip on power, but gradually shifts toward capitalism. Or the (pro communist) military might take over.

[DanS]

The number of exiles v. non-exiles is rather high for Cuba, which makes it a special case. The exiles have lived in Florida for a while, which means that they are used to democracy, capitalism, and responsive gov't, more or less. The economic and political gap between the exiles and those who stayed in Cuba is just massive. Think North v. South Korea.

I can imagine a lot of resentment among those who stayed in Cuba, once the exile invasion starts. It will hit them like a ton of bricks.

[Lodi]

So we must also consider that an open civil war is possible, no?

[DanS]

It seems possible. And for good or ill, the US will be right in the center of it all. The exiles are American citizens now, and we will wish to fix things quickly in Cuba, rather than see waves of boat people in Florida.

I can't think of any good analogy from the other communist transitions that have happened.

[lord of the mark]

wait i made a mistake.

One of the forces that supported Bautista when he became president is still an important force in Cuban society.


The Communist Party of Cuba.

[Barnabas]

I think most likely Cuba will go the China way, and miami cubans wont be allowed to return

[Lodi]

One of the forces that supported Bautista when he became president is still an important force in Cuban society.

Cuba seems to be a hub of long-lived king rats that just eat up the decades.

[GePap]

Originally posted by DanS
The number of exiles v. non-exiles is rather high for Cuba, which makes it a special case. The exiles have lived in Florida for a while, which means that they are used to democracy, capitalism, and responsive gov't, more or less. The economic and political gap between the exiles and those who stayed in Cuba is just massive. Think North v. South Korea.

I can imagine a lot of resentment among those who stayed in Cuba, once the exile invasion starts. It will hit them like a ton of bricks.

A lot of exiles are certainly not rich, for one, and if they think the comunist Elite in Cuba, especially the military, will just vanish, and that Havana will become Miami lite, they have a nasty surprise coming.

[chequita guevara]

Originally posted by lord of the mark
a neo battista seems most unlikely. Where would the support come from.

Miami

[chequita guevara]

Originally posted by DanS
The number of exiles v. non-exiles is rather high for Cuba, which makes it a special case. The exiles have lived in Florida for a while, which means that they are used to democracy, capitalism, and responsive gov't, more or less.

You might think that, but you'd be wrong.

[TCO]

Hope he dies.

[GePap]

So, he does not seem to be dying after all.

[TCO]

Maybe if we all wish real hard, the commie will croack.