The Future of North Korea

[Proteus_MST]

Originally posted by DaShi
Like it did in Iraq. Sorry for the smarmy response, but I felt it was necessary.

In Iraq they made the mistake of changing the system after the fall of Saddam.

Perhaps you could do better without this.
Replacing Kim Jong Ils person centered rule with a party centered rule just like in China, some kind of police state and not exactly a democracy, but much more predictable and perhaps centered more on economy and less on military.

[DaShi]

Then you'd need a party willing to do that. When the CCP came to power there was great disaster. And many of those repressive urges still remain. The CCP has done well in spite of itself.

[Q Classic]

Originally posted by Urban Ranger
They will be the next Asian Tiger, I think, if Kim can overcome internal resistance and start econmic reforms based on the PRC model.

That seals it, UR is true comedic gold.

[Q Classic]

Also, would Korea (I admit I don't follow the matter closely) immediately unite if the North went democratic?

Doubtful. SKorea doesn't want to absorb the North after they saw what happened in Germany.

Which city would be the capital?

Most likely Seoul for historical, economic, cultural, technological, industrial, and population reasons. However, SKorea is still proceeding with plans to move some of its administrative infrastructure an hour or so south to a smaller city to relieve the real estate pressures and provide extra safety.

Who would be the boss, south or north? Who would pay the bills? I think I remember reading that the southerners aren't much thrilled at the prospect.

In both cases, the South. Historically, the stronger Korean kingdoms have been in the southern end; that it should be the case here is no surprise. NKorea has no resources to pay bills anyway, so...

[Q Classic]

Re: Re: The Future of North Korea

Originally posted by Vince278
I generally see them merging similar to how Germany did it. Both sides already want to unite (if only on their own terms). However, it will take a long time to dig up all those mines in the DMZ.

Actually, the SKoreans are very schizoid about that. They both want a unification, but are also quite leery of the costs. Really, it's more of a, "It'd be nice if..." but with very little will to make that an actuality.

It'll end up an Asian Mexico only with nuclear weapons.

Without the nuclear weapons, I thought the Asian Mexico was the Philippines...

[DanS]

But they also have roads to block (compare to, say, Africa)

When I look at those pictures, I'm reminded of the Stephen King book "The Stand."

Some of the infrastructure looks OK, but I'm guessing that with much use at all, the infrastructure would be pulverized (i.e., everything is a Potemkin Village). On the other hand, the subway looks pretty useful.

I don't have any experience living in a communist country, so I would be interested in hearing what others with such experience observe when they look at those pictures. Of course, North Korean communism is somewhat a breed of its own.

[Barnabas]

Where is the vassal state of China, or even annexed by china option?

[Timexwatch]

I can't imagine the trauma people would experience being thrown into South Korean society after being frozen in time for the past 55 years.

[Vince278]

Wish I could go 55 years into the future that easily.

[Urban Ranger]

Originally posted by snoopy369
I'd not argue about the 'can'. I'd argue about the 'wants to' ... I at least have yet to have heard anything to make me believe that Kim wants to make his country into a remotely 'reformed' country and not just keep it a tight dictatorship...

Kim did attempted economic reform similar to the PRC once. He picked an area near Manchuria and wanted to make it into a "special economic zone," something like Shenzen had been in the 1990s. Unfortunately, the head he picked, a Chinese businessman, turned out to be a crook and got nabbed by Chinese authorities.

[:) Smiley]

Sometimes I get the feeling that if the world ran out of cheap fossil fuels, the way of life in industrialized countries would grow to resemble that of North Korea.

[Vince278]

Originally posted by Smiley
Sometimes I get the feeling that if the world ran out of cheap fossil fuels, the way of life in industrialized countries would grow to resemble that of North Korea.

Not really, but some would do better than others. Many high tech nations will adapt. Many like North Korea wouldn't see much of a change. But yes, the majority would be thrown into chaos.

[Jon Miller]

The koreans I know seem to favor the North and South being one nation (probably under the South rule).
\
JM

[DaShi]

Originally posted by Urban Ranger


Kim did attempted economic reform similar to the PRC once. He picked an area near Manchuria and wanted to make it into a "special economic zone," something like Shenzen had been in the 1990s. Unfortunately, the head he picked, a Chinese businessman, turned out to be a crook and got nabbed by Chinese authorities.

But that wasn't the reason why it failed. For one Yang Bin was only accused of being a crook by the Chinese government. This was taken as a sign that the Chinese didn't support the Sinuiju experiement, which was established without Chinese foreknowledge. The Chinese were quite open that they disapproved of it and the arrest of Yang Bin only seemed to further confirm this. Apparently, NK is only allowed to develop so long as it doesn't compete with or potentially negatively affect Chinese interests.

Sinuiju failed because they couldn't get the foreign investors, including Chinese and S. Korean, that Shenzhen so easily did. Seems they were reluctant to deal with NK after past bad experiences.

[_BuRjaCi_]

Where's the "North Korea is turned to glass by Americain nuclear weapons" option?