Iran takes one more BIG step...

[dannubis]

So?

anyway, i have looked it up and they do have a lot of phosphate rock containing uranium. this is not the source you'd want to use because of the low yield, but they can use it. and for the moment there is a boom in uranium mining in kazakhstan. so guess three times where iran gets its yellow cake...

[lord of the mark]

Originally posted by GePap


Depends on the type of treaty. Pull out of a peace treaty, you give other countries issues. BUt give up a self-impossed limit on your soverignty? What is the basis for the aggression by another party?

a. This was a limit that was adopted in EXCHANGE for getting nuclear technology. Do use the treaty for cover to get the technology, then withdraw from the treaty just when youre about to use that technology to do that which you had foresworn, would make the treaty meaningless. THAT gives the other powers issues.

b. Its amusing to see the underlying Westphalian notion of state soveriegntly constantly being invoked on behalf of Iran, a country that explicitly denies such rights wrt Israel.

Anyway, it seems that the US, France, UK, Germany, AND Russia, AND China, have agreed on an offer to Iran, and on "steps" and "measures" if Iran fails to take up the offer.

Iran could respond by withdrawing from the NPT. I dont think that would improve the moods of ANY of the P5+1, or make them decide to throw up their hands and say "ah, Iran CAN have nukes now that its withdrawn from the NPT, the international lawyers say so"

So I dont think withdrawing from the NPT would be wise. But we shall see.

[Agathon]

Can someone actually prove that the Iranians are doing anything that violates the treaty?

[SlowwHand]

The United Nations seems convinced.

[lord of the mark]

Originally posted by Thedrin


No sanctions have been decided on yet. The group are threatening to have the UN bring up economic sanctions if Iran doesn't agree to the latest package.

HOWEVER, it must be noted that what economic sanctions are refered to above has not been agreed by the 6 countries. It would be extremely naive to suggest that the type of sanctions package that the US would put together would be backed by either China or Russia.

Until the 6 governments agree on the form that economic sanctions should take, Iran will carry on as they are at present.

Nothing has been ANNOUNCED yet, till the package is handed off to Iran.

Its possible the package will remain vague, and will only include as next "steps" a UNSC resolution which threatens further steps (IE sanctions) without yet specifiying them.

Id be very surprised if there wasnt SOME agreement, at least between the US, EU3, and Russia, about the exact shape that sanctions would take.

[lord of the mark]

Originally posted by Spiffor

Depends how you define "going down":

- if it is Iran getting economic sanctions, then I won't bet against you
- if it is Iran switching regime in the coming decades, then I won't bet against you
- if it is Iran getting hit by psoradic strikes from some aggressive country (Israel or the US), then I wouldn't be willing to bet
- if it is Iran switching regime in the next couple of years because of invasion or homegrown rebellion, then give me 100$

spiff these last two weeks there have been student riots in Teheran and elsewhere, that led to several dozen police being injured. There were large scale protest in Tabriz over an anti-Azeri cartoon in the official press, and some follow up in Teheran, leading to the arrests of more Azeris.

[dannubis]

Originally posted by Agathon
Can someone actually prove that the Iranians are doing anything that violates the treaty?

no,

but do you really believe they are not after an A-bomb ?