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Considering that important parts of the UIA coalition controlling the Iraqi gov't would fight with Iran against us in the event of such a situation (Sadr, for instance, has publicly said that), there's a question about whether or not that would constitute an actual invasion.
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"Beware of the man who works hard to learn something, learns it, and finds himself no wiser than before. He is full of murderous resentment of people who are ignorant without having come by their ignorance the hard way. "
-Bokonon -
Originally posted by Rufus T. Firefly
Actually, right now, we've got traction with a number of Muslim countries: Egypt, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Pakistan, Malaysia and Indonesia are all playing ball with us, however reluctantly and self-servingly. It's not warm and fuzzy, but it's dialogue and something to build on. Nuke a Muslim country? That's over.
Every one of those is being held togather by a strong, oppresive government. Ifsaid governments should fall, oonies would take over.
Not a warm fuzzy.Today, you are the waves of the Pacific, pushing ever eastward. You are the sequoias rising from the Sierra Nevada, defiant and enduring.Comment
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I can't think of any reason for this to be so. Most of Iraq's air support doesn't even come from within Iraq.The damage would be compounded if strikes came from Iraq
HAHAHAHAJordan and France, similarly, play roughly equivalent accomodationist roles in each of their worlds.
I don't think they would try, as they know prior to any strike our units in Iraq, already for the most part not stationed directly within the urban areas, would be deployed for field action. An Iranian conventional invasion would be a massacre for them. They know their best chance is to play the defender.If Iran is attacked by airstrikes which either originate from Iraq or which pass over Iraqi airspace, then yes, Iran invading Iraq would generally be considered an act of self-defence.
Iran's military is disadvantaged because of scale and tech, not competance. Iran's military is not suicidal.
The Iranian/Iraq border is also mostly open unpopulated land, exactly what Western air forces would want.
Basically they will bunker down and try and wait things out. All a counter invasion would do is provide a world televized, tangable military victory for the west, while an airstrike no matter how devastating will probobly be harolded as a military defeat by the usual martial philistines out there.
There is no reason for Iran to invade.Last edited by Patroklos; April 10, 2006, 16:23."The DPRK is still in a state of war with the U.S. It's called a black out." - Che explaining why orbital nightime pictures of NK show few lights. Seriously.Comment
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Oh wouldn't want to cross Sadr, now...Originally posted by Ramo
Considering that important parts of the UIA coalition controlling the Iraqi gov't would fight with Iran against us in the event of such a situation (Sadr, for instance, has publicly said that), there's a question about whether or not that would constitute an actual invasion.Comment
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Not if we support the elected gov't of Iraq. In fact, Sadr's support in their Parliament was instrumental in keeping current PM Jafaari as the UIA's next candidate for PM (and thus the likely PM during said crisis).
SCIRI would probably throw their lot in with Iran in such an event. Although we're more supportive of them than Da'wa for short-sighted reasons (they are supportive of a weak central gov't, so that a Shia Islamist pseudo-state in the South would be able to deny oil revenues to the Sunni Arabs, which we're seeming to support), they have close connections with Iran, and their militia, the Badr Corps, was trained in Iran (and has engaged in abusive actions as SCIRI has come to control the Interior Ministry).
It'd be hard to predict Jaafari and Da'wa's actions in terms of whether they'd take up arms against us, but they certainly would force us to get the hell out of their country."Beware of the man who works hard to learn something, learns it, and finds himself no wiser than before. He is full of murderous resentment of people who are ignorant without having come by their ignorance the hard way. "
-BokononComment
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Not true in Indonesia, but otherwise, yeah.Originally posted by Lonestar
Every one of those is being held togather by a strong, oppresive government. Ifsaid governments should fall, oonies would take over.
Not a warm fuzzy.
But that's my point. We don't need warm fuzzies. We need governments in tha hands of reasonably sane people we can talk to. We have that now in the countries I listed. Nuke Iran, and you'll end up destabilizing those governments as well."I have as much authority as the pope. I just don't have as many people who believe it." — George CarlinComment
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The House of Saud is not "reasonable sane", at best they are more sane relative to the loonies.Originally posted by Rufus T. Firefly
Not true in Indonesia, but otherwise, yeah.
But that's my point. We don't need warm fuzzies. We need governments in tha hands of reasonably sane people we can talk to. We have that now in the countries I listed. Nuke Iran, and you'll end up destabilizing those governments as well.
And just to make this clear, I'm not advocating nuking Iran. It would be a mistake, however, to publically take the option off the table.Today, you are the waves of the Pacific, pushing ever eastward. You are the sequoias rising from the Sierra Nevada, defiant and enduring.Comment
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It might slightly strengthen our bargaining position with Iran (not that we're seriously bargaining with them according to what Hersh has been saying for the past year), but leaving a pre-emptive nuclear attack on Nantaz on the table is not good in terms of winning their hearts and minds and keeping crazies from taking over semi-friendly gov't's."Beware of the man who works hard to learn something, learns it, and finds himself no wiser than before. He is full of murderous resentment of people who are ignorant without having come by their ignorance the hard way. "
-BokononComment
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I support the idea of a strike.
The sooner it happens, the more the US accelerates its slide into irrelevance.Only feebs vote.Comment
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From what country are you from Agathon?I need a foot massageComment
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Pudland.Life is not measured by the number of breaths you take, but by the moments that take your breath away.
"Hating America is something best left to Mobius. He is an expert Yank hater.
He also hates Texans and Australians, he does diversify." ~ BraindeadComment
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I bow to no one in my intense hatred of the House of Saud, but they're not loons; they are good old-fashioned practitioners of self-interested, double-dealing realpolitik with a dollop of ideological fervor. They're like the Soviets, but with Wahhabism instead of communism.Originally posted by Lonestar
The House of Saud is not "reasonable sane", at best they are more sane relative to the loonies."I have as much authority as the pope. I just don't have as many people who believe it." — George CarlinComment
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If the US used any sort of nuclear device against Iran, we can kiss non-rpoliferation and the NPT goodbye. Iran would have every reason necessary to state that they would pull out of the NPT given the behavior of the US. Once out of the NPT, they can do whatever with their nulcear program . World opinion would be solidly anti-US, so the Iranians would face little criticism (after all, they were the ones nuked).
The US has no good options with regards to Iran. Since Iran is weaker than NK, we can "explore" the military options more than with NK, but the reality is, if Iran wants nukes, they will get nukes, and short of taking over, for which there is no political will in the US, not even getting into the fact we don;t have the manpower to do so anyways, there is nothing the US can do to stop them, and China and Russia will not force comprehensive sanctions.
A miitary strike at this time would do far long term greater political damage to the US in the region than any gains, unless sucvh an attack could be guaranteed to end Iran's nuclear program, and no air atatck could promise that much.If you don't like reality, change it! me
"Oh no! I am bested!" Drake
"it is dangerous to be right when the government is wrong" Voltaire
"Patriotism is a pernecious, psychopathic form of idiocy" George Bernard ShawComment
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Yes, but is Bush being funny or silly?Originally posted by KrazyHorse
Nuclear strikes are out of the question. Slowwhand's just being silly, as usual.Comment
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By your strange measurement 911 would be one of the cleanest attacks in the history of mankind.Originally posted by Patroklos
I am, the cleanest wars in the history of mankind.(\__/) 07/07/1937 - Never forget
(='.'=) "Claims demand evidence; extraordinary claims demand extraordinary evidence." -- Carl Sagan
(")_(") "Starting the fire from within."Comment
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